Ming-Chi Kuo Cuts iPhone XR Lifecycle Shipment Estimates by 30 Million

[arkitect]

In London rent on a one bedroom flat costs around £800 per month. That gets you a three bedroom house elsewhere in the UK. I would think you're more likely to have a spare £60 outside of the M25 than within it, given how much more affordable property is.

Apart from the fact that your examples are exaggerated, your proposition would only hold if wages across the UK were the same.

They are not.

Even in larger cities such as Manchester or Bristol, pay is far less than in London. At the end of the day people have more or less the same amount left in their wallets end of the day.
Trust me, I know this first hand.

Generally, the iPhone is quite inexpensive.

Compared to buying a car? Sure. Compared to similar phones? No.

Anyway. We could go on… and on… but yeah. Gotta get back to work so I can j̶u̶s̶t̶i̶f̶y̶ pay off my cheap iPhone /s

 

[Sam_S]

Hey, Apple needs to purchase their stock on the cheap, right?

Lol

 

[ksec]

What makes these Chinese phones so great??? The high end ones are just as expensive as iPhones. Sure they look pretty, and might have some cool gimmicky features. But do they stand the test of time?? Will they get software and security updates after a year?? Is their users privacy secured??? I know for a FACT my $1249 iPhone XS Max will last at least 5 years, and still be able to run the latest apps, software, and have security. It’ll never have even a hiccup. When I see these Chinese brand phones, they all come with gimmicky stuff. Apple implements software and hardware that will be beneficial to the user. In screen fingerprint reader is cool and all, but 3D face scanning is more secure.

>The high end ones are just as expensive as iPhones.
The person I quote, just said it the Mate Pro 20 has the same price as Xr in EU, while being roughly the same in terms of function and features to Xs Max.

>Do they get software update after a year.
Depends on Brands. But interestingly enough big Chinese Brand phones are the one who are good at updating their OS.

Sometimes I think people should actually look at Android phone to get a better understanding, even if you are an iPhone user. Otherwise it makes any comment and comparison moot.

 

[dilbert99]

Yeah, so more expensive phones. I don't care how they got expensive or what the mix is (other than the fact the X is the best selling model in the lineup). I never said they were or weren't selling more flagships, besides the X. I said the revenue was higher in 2018 than in 2015 which means they sold iPhones at MUCH higher prices,

Perhaps we are talking about different things.
I thought you were saying that Apple is currently selling mostly higher priced phones.
Where as the opposite is the case, Apple sells more lower priced phones compared to the higher priced phones.

To make the calculations easier, lets assume that Apple sold just two phones
$999 41.5% of total * 90354630 phones = $90264275370
$599 58.5% of total * 127367370 phones = $76293054630
So selling a total of 90354630 + 127367370 = 217,722,000 phones (218M)
Generating 90264275370 + 76293054630 = $166,557,000,000 ($166B)
So to achieve that $766 ASP, they had to sell 58.5% lower priced phone and only 41.5% higher priced phone

Interestingly was doing more exploring...

If unit sales are flat, to achieve a higher asp and $sales:
you can increase the price of the top phone without changing the numbers sold.
you can increase the price of the top phone by a lesser amount but sell more of them.
[doublepost=1542192537][/doublepost]

https://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2018/10/22/the-gray-markets-impact-on-iphone-pricing

Flat unit sales mask the fact that Apple’s iPhone install base continue to grow via sales of second hand iOS devices. If anything, it’s precisely because iPhones appear to hold their value so well that users are able to sell off their iPhones at reasonable prices so they can continue to upgrade on a regular basis. It’s not as bad as people are making it out to be.

Doesn't flat sales also mean that the second hand market is also flat because the number of newer phones isn't rising.
An iPhone has a life of 5 years after it is no longer manufactured. Which suggests that as batteries die, they can't be replaced (because Apple won't sell you the parts or allow other people to sell the parts) so users have to buy a new model (be it used or new). So you only have a fixed number of people buying used phones. That base will only increase as long as the new market continues to grow?

Out of all the iPhones I have bought, only two are in service now(mine + wife has my old 5), the other 2 are sitting in a drawer (3GS + 4 - both have no value) .

 

[MultiMan]

The person I quote, just said it the Mate Pro 20 has the same price as Xr in EU, while being roughly the same in terms of function and features to Xs Max.

In Sweden specifically iPhone Xr 64GB and Mate 20 Pro 128GB are within $50 of each other. (On a side note, P20 Pro is free atm with a business subscription costing $70 a month)

I would argue that the Mate 20 Pro is better in many ways than the Xs Max, naming a few: Much longer battery life, significantly more advanced cameras with 3x telephoto lens, ultra wide angle lens and 40MP main camera which can use pixel binning and special night mode in dark areas that is better than anything else. Same type of 3D face recognition that Apple uses but also under screen FPS. IR blaster. Wonderful, gradient "twilight" colors on the back. Proper physical dual sim card holder and a slot for Huawei's new nano memory cards (e-sim still not widely adopted here). Higher precision GPS. Ultra fast fast charging with 40W charger (included in box, alongside headphone dongle) that give 70% in just 30 minutes.

Of course the Xs is better in other ways like the CPU which I have no use for as already the Kirin 955 in my old Honor 8 still is plenty fast (Kirin 980 in mate 20). Kirin is Huawei's own CPU brand, just like Apple make theirs, for you who don't know this.

There is nothing budget with any of Huawei later phones, they feel as premium as any iPhone, but you get more usable features for less money and they look better (personal opinion, I know). Xs Max is massively more expensive in Sweden; the value simply isn't there to me.

Both Android 8 & 9 with Huawei's EMUI is really good, to the point I prefer it to iOS 12 as it's not as limited in what one can do. When I boot up my iPhone 6 with (now) iOS 12 it feels really bland. I switch themes on the phone every week for it to be more pleasing to the eye and a bit fun. Using Día de Muertos theme this week, free and really well done!

 

[ksec]

In Sweden specifically iPhone Xr 64GB and Mate 20 Pro 128GB are within $50 of each other. (On a side note, P20 Pro is free atm with a business subscription costing $70 a month)

I would argue that the Mate 20 Pro is better in many ways than the Xs Max, naming a few: Much longer battery life, significantly more advanced cameras with 3x telephoto lens, ultra wide angle lens and 40MP main camera which can use pixel binning and special night mode in dark areas that is better than anything else. Same type of 3D face recognition that Apple uses but also under screen FPS. IR blaster. Wonderful, gradient "twilight" colors on the back. Proper physical dual sim card holder and a slot for Huawei's new nano memory cards (e-sim still not widely adopted here). Higher precision GPS. Ultra fast fast charging with 40W charger (included in box, alongside headphone dongle) that give 70% in just 30 minutes.

Of course the Xs is better in other ways like the CPU which I have no use for as already the Kirin 955 in my old Honor 8 still is plenty fast (Kirin 980 in mate 20). Kirin is Huawei's own CPU brand, just like Apple make theirs, for you who don't know this.

There is nothing budget with any of Huawei later phones, they feel as premium as any iPhone, but you get more usable features for less money and they look better (personal opinion, I know). Xs Max is massively more expensive in Sweden; the value simply isn't there to me.

Both Android 8 & 9 with Huawei's EMUI is really good, to the point I prefer it to iOS 12 as it's not as limited in what one can do. When I boot up my iPhone 6 with (now) iOS 12 it feels really bland. I switch themes on the phone every week for it to be more pleasing to the eye and a bit fun. Using Día de Muertos theme this week, free and really well done!

I actually deleted the camera comparison in my original comment. Afraid I may go into full rant mode. If the Xs Max actually had the same quality Camera I could have at least justify the price on Apple Brand value. But no, the camera on Mate 20 Pro is quite something. The Antenna on Xs Max doesn't bother me much as I live in good reception area, but knowing that Mate 20 Pro had better Antenna and reception still left me a bad taste in my mouth.

Again, may be Apple doesn't need to lower its price, but it definitely needs to deliver more value.

 

[Baymowe335]

Perhaps we are talking about different things.
I thought you were saying that Apple is currently selling mostly higher priced phones.
Where as the opposite is the case, Apple sells more lower priced phones compared to the higher priced phones.

To make the calculations easier, lets assume that Apple sold just two phones
$999 41.5% of total * 90354630 phones = $90264275370
$599 58.5% of total * 127367370 phones = $76293054630
So selling a total of 90354630 + 127367370 = 217,722,000 phones (218M)
Generating 90264275370 + 76293054630 = $166,557,000,000 ($166B)
So to achieve that $766 ASP, they had to sell 58.5% lower priced phone and only 41.5% higher priced phone

Interestingly was doing more exploring...

If unit sales are flat, to achieve a higher asp and $sales:
you can increase the price of the top phone without changing the numbers sold.
you can increase the price of the top phone by a lesser amount but sell more of them.
[doublepost=1542192537][/doublepost]
Doesn't flat sales also mean that the second hand market is also flat because the number of newer phones isn't rising.
An iPhone has a life of 5 years after it is no longer manufactured. Which suggests that as batteries die, they can't be replaced (because Apple won't sell you the parts or allow other people to sell the parts) so users have to buy a new model (be it used or new). So you only have a fixed number of people buying used phones. That base will only increase as long as the new market continues to grow?

Out of all the iPhones I have bought, only two are in service now(mine + wife has my old 5), the other 2 are sitting in a drawer (3GS + 4 - both have no value) .

No, I was never saying that. I think both of you thought I was saying something else. Mix doesn't matter to me. By higher priced phones, I simply meant higher priced phones.

Remember, this story could have easily gone the other way with buyers becoming stubborn on spending their $...ASPs can decrease too, particularly if your new iPhone X sold 20% of total and people were buying iPhone 7 (as speculated in the early stages by the usual wrong analysts).

My point has always been, people are willing for fork over more $ for iPhones now than ever, regardless of the model. That's just what the numbers say. Highest ASP, most iPhone revenue ever. I would like to see unit sales higher, but not at the expense of revenue.

 

[sofila]

In London rent on a one bedroom flat costs around £800 per month. That gets you a three bedroom house elsewhere in the UK. I would think you're more likely to have a spare £60 outside of the M25 than within it, given how much more affordable property is.

And again, we're talking about iPhones, not cans of coke or loaves of bread. I know there are people living hand to mouth, but theres a large middle class and lots of more wealthy people. Generally, the iPhone is quite inexpensive.

[doublepost=1542141402][/doublepost]

What an odd thing to say. Seems that's so clearly wrong I think I must have missed something. How about "almost everyone identifies as either a man or a woman"?

Given that english is not even my 2nd language I'll make it simple: it is my fault. Should have been more precise and complete: every behaviour description containing "almost everyone" is dead wrong. Your quick answer describing how iPhone is quite inexpensive only shows that your sight and perception applies to a limited (less than half, I would guess) part of the population. Very far from "almost everyone".
By the way "man or woman" could be older, younger, father, daughter, sibling, alone, busy, healthy, ill, poor, happy, nervous and so on. Do you think they all have dinner at the same time? (Yes, almost everyone eats something at the end of the day)
Edited for typo

 

[falainber]

This is a swing buy on my part. If it climbs to $200 i will sell. If it climbs above $195 and can not reach $200 I will set a trigger for $195. If it goes down from $192.80 i will consider buying more.

At $1920.80 it is a good value I mean I will only sell my latest shares at those prices not the entire thing.

Time to buy more shares!

 

[Steve121178]

The only reason Im going with this phone is because the LCD screen doesn’t blast your eyeballs out with PWM like the OLED screens. Total fail on Apple’s part to pit a screen on XS and Max that gives people headaches. Unbelievable

Not had a problem with my Xs & X last year.

 

[ryanwarsaw]

Time to buy more shares!

I looked at my holding for AAPL BA and MSFT. They are roughly all down the same. I then looked at AMZN, GOOGL and others that I don't own and they are similar or worse off for the past 6 months. If you fixate only on AAPL it is easy to miss the larger picture. I invested in a few other companies like MMM and FMC etc and they aren't singing a better tune.

Now it isn't really a matter of believing in a particular stock but how you feel about the market in general. If you managed to find any recognizable names that are big winners lately please let me know what they are. Visa and Coke are the only stock I picked that have done anything positive.

Let's see where it is at after February. Enjoy the schadenfreude and think of me when you make your next purchase from AAPL. I am going to be homeless soon. lol

 

[iMEric984]

>The high end ones are just as expensive as iPhones.
The person I quote, just said it the Mate Pro 20 has the same price as Xr in EU, while being roughly the same in terms of function and features to Xs Max.

>Do they get software update after a year.
Depends on Brands. But interestingly enough big Chinese Brand phones are the one who are good at updating their OS.

Sometimes I think people should actually look at Android phone to get a better understanding, even if you are an iPhone user. Otherwise it makes any comment and comparison moot.

I have used android twice. Tried to like it and hated it.

Since I’ve used iOS devices since, no problems.

 

[ryanwarsaw]

I have used android twice. Tried to like it and hated it.

Since I’ve used iOS devices since, no problems.

Yeah same here. It is one thing that gives me some confidence in the future outlook. Slower rate of upgrades perhaps but most people are not switching. I tried it myself and lasted around 3 months.

 

[3goldens]

"competition from Huawei's Mate 20 series"

Yeah no... as good as the mate 20 is, its not going to sell as much to be a cause. Its like saying competition from pixel 3 or note 9 or LG G7, or 1+6t

Wrong post
[doublepost=1542227064][/doublepost]

Not just an analyst, but a noted analyst. Noted for never providing any analysis or scoops of note I would suggest but MR seem to like his 'insight'

Yep, amd succesfully playing havoc with Apple stock as a result. I think this is a backlash against Apple’s announcement that they won’t be reporting iphine sales going forward. So not sure how this meathead analyst can make a call like this, but he did and he gets the media to whip it into a full blown frenzy. Pretty sad that these morons are allowed to make these kinds of proclamations that clearly messed around with the stock market. Good for me because I get the buy a whole bunch more Apple stock at lower prices !

 

[dilbert99]

No, I was never saying that. I think both of you thought I was saying something else. Mix doesn't matter to me. By higher priced phones, I simply meant higher priced phones.

Remember, this story could have easily gone the other way with buyers becoming stubborn on spending their $...ASPs can decrease too, particularly if your new iPhone X sold 20% of total and people were buying iPhone 7 (as speculated in the early stages by the usual wrong analysts).

My point has always been, people are willing for fork over more $ for iPhones now than ever, regardless of the model. That's just what the numbers say. Highest ASP, most iPhone revenue ever. I would like to see unit sales higher, but not at the expense of revenue.

But what you want as an investor isn’t necessary what all investors want.
App currently sells more lower priced iPhones than it does higher priced phones which depending on how total unit sales combined with higher net sales tells a story over time. It helps to show how users are responding to lower priced phones that are out there.

Another example is the iPad. People are shunning the higher priced iPads in their droves. Why is this? If you ask this question you will see why. How many times did you access a laptop in the last month. Most consumers will not buy a laptop priced iPad and have a laptop too. The iPad for a certain percentage is fine as a replacement. But similarly an iPad for a certain percentage of people does not suffice. Having the unit sales tells a story of how people are reacting more quickly that net sales alone does.

Also who needs a powerful iPad when all the consumer is doing is watching Netflix and using Facebook. The iPad Pro is a niche product.

 

[Fthree]

The “problem” with apple is they are making TOO GOOD OF products to sustain a high amount of device growth (iphone). I literally gave my wife who could care less about a phone my X to have a decent excuse to get an Xs Max. She had a 6s before and thought it was still relevant (which it is) I’m not a pro user of macs or iPads but do love the power i may theoretically one day use (which I lie to myself that i need the power but I don’t) I literally have had to draw the line at the new IPad and every reasonable excuse i can think of to buy it doesn’t push me to actually purchase it. (I have a 10.5 and yes a couple years ago the shrunken bezels and Face ID would have been enough for me to purchase it) and I know I don’t “technically” need it but as a apple lover that makes me wonder what i actually need in a tablet or future phone to upgrade with these lofty prices that are happening currently. The average American is having major issues staying ahead with income at the end of the month. Eventually these “only $5 a month” incremental charges are going to come to a head and stop. I know i know people have been saying this for YEARS however I am one of those that was on the side of upgrading every stinking time apple came out with a small incremental speed bump in a phone MacBook or iPad. Notice I said was. Now not “having” to have the latest and greatest scares me for the future of the phones etc for apple to sustain the outrageous number of sales to please everyone. ALSO what happens when the IPad actually DOES turn into a laptop replacement? When you subtract the high margin MacBook pros that will not be sold that number goes way down unless the iPads can replace that pricing structure and that is a scary thought. Apples iPads, MacBooks, iPhones, and def the AirPods are amazing products that whenever I NEED to upgrade I will definitely have to think twice or three times before purchasing when in the past it would have been a simple swipe of the credit card and I would get that happy new product apple feeling from it. Now its almost as if the device I buy isn’t ONE HUNDRED % flawless its getting taken back within the return period. I never used to worry about the stained yellow screens or anything else of that realm if I didn’t see it I didn’t care and now I actively look for it and will exchange in a heart beat as it has to be perfect.

 

[ipponrg]

I looked at my holding for AAPL BA and MSFT. They are roughly all down the same. I then looked at AMZN, GOOGL and others that I don't own and they are similar or worse off for the past 6 months. If you fixate only on AAPL it is easy to miss the larger picture. I invested in a few other companies like MMM and FMC etc and they aren't singing a better tune.

Now it isn't really a matter of believing in a particular stock but how you feel about the market in general. If you managed to find any recognizable names that are big winners lately please let me know what they are. Visa and Coke are the only stock I picked that have done anything positive.

Let's see where it is at after February. Enjoy the schadenfreude and think of me when you make your next purchase from AAPL. I am going to be homeless soon. lol

I have a decent amount in AAPL and MSFT, but I've made more money in MSFT than AAPL. AAPL has actually gone down 20% since their high. MSFT only 10%. MSFT still pays greater dividends.

 

[iMEric984]

Yeah same here. It is one thing that gives me some confidence in the future outlook. Slower rate of upgrades perhaps but most people are not switching. I tried it myself and lasted around 3 months.

I tried a galaxy s7 edge and a lg g6. Both were nightmares. The S7 had an awesome screen and was nice and quick. After a couple months it gradually slowed more and more. The battery never lasted I’d have to charge 2-3 times a day. I returned it and tried the G6, had the same problems. Battery life, OS was a mess. Then I got my iPhone 6, then 7 Plus, then my XS Max. My 6 is still perfect with a new battery. Dad has it. Mom has my 7 Plus.

I’ll never go back!

 

[Caspavio]

Given how often analysts have been wrong in the past, it's entertaining to see so many people coming out to make claims of their own. even if nikkei is right that apple cancelled production boost for XR, it is still a logic leap that apple is losing customers. 1) is the original estimation of 100m reasonable in the first place? 2) is the cancellation due to weak demand or apple overestimating demand because they think XR has almost all the XS features at $250 lesser? 3) are the "potential customers" going for iphone 7, 8, Xs or Xs Max or are they switching to android?

 

[MultiMan]

I tried a galaxy s7 edge and a lg g6. Both were nightmares. The S7 had an awesome screen and was nice and quick. After a couple months it gradually slowed more and more. The battery never lasted I’d have to charge 2-3 times a day. I returned it and tried the G6, had the same problems. Battery life, OS was a mess. Then I got my iPhone 6, then 7 Plus, then my XS Max. My 6 is still perfect with a new battery. Dad has it. Mom has my 7 Plus.

I’ll never go back!

The try a proper, modern Android phone, there are a ton of them now in 2018. As an iPhone owner but now using Huawei I shunned both Samsung and LG, not good enough phones. I've bought 3 Huawei's during the last 2 years and none have slowed down (still using all three) and their iOS-like EMUI is great to navigate. My P20 Pro lasts at least 2 full days before charge, sometimes 3 with its 4000mAh battery. You get an equal or better phone for less money, and that was why I switched.

If you want to miss out on so much fun and innovation for less money outside of today's Apple that's, of course, your prerogative. I've always had an open mind and that more often than not led to more money in my wallet, with better products to boot. I loved Apple up until 2015 or there about, since then they stagnated and seems more interested in raising prices than innovating to bring in new customers.

Xiaomi just got officially launched in Sweden this week, there's another brand that's crazy innovative, just look what they managed with the Mi Mix two years ago. I never let my eyes off of them since then.

 

[Abazigal]

Given how often analysts have been wrong in the past, it's entertaining to see so many people coming out to make claims of their own. even if nikkei is right that apple cancelled production boost for XR, it is still a logic leap that apple is losing customers. 1) is the original estimation of 100m reasonable in the first place? 2) is the cancellation due to weak demand or apple overestimating demand because they think XR has almost all the XS features at $250 lesser? 3) are the "potential customers" going for iphone 7, 8, Xs or Xs Max or are they switching to android?

There are other possibilities. For example, Apple could simply be shifting orders from one company to another. So company A would see a decrease in orders, while company B sees a corresponding increase, and Apple is still on track to sell just as many iPhones. For all we know, Apple might even have increase their total number of component orders!

https://iphone.appleinsider.com/art...miconductor-isnt-seeing-a-reduction-in-orders

But just report what company A sees to sell the narrative that Apple might not be doing so well, and you get all this hysteria over Apple supposedly being doomed.

This is why simply reporting on one supplier rarely ever tells the whole story. And I predict the next few months is going to be a free-for-all when it comes to Apple sales rumours.

 

[mi7chy]

They came up with a new way to get people to upgrade.

 

[chatin]

They came up with a new way to get people to upgrade.

X was throttled in 12.1 perhaps should have been 12.

 

[dilbert99]

I tried a galaxy s7 edge and a lg g6. Both were nightmares. The S7 had an awesome screen and was nice and quick. After a couple months it gradually slowed more and more. The battery never lasted I’d have to charge 2-3 times a day. I returned it and tried the G6, had the same problems. Battery life, OS was a mess. Then I got my iPhone 6, then 7 Plus, then my XS Max. My 6 is still perfect with a new battery. Dad has it. Mom has my 7 Plus.

I’ll never go back!

I've never had an Android phone so can't comment about their battery/speed changes over time.
I have had 7 iPhones
The 3GS would probably still function - 1 Good
The replacement 4 now has touch disease - 2 Bad
The replacement 5 is still being used - 1 Bad/1 good
The replacement 6 is still being used. - 1 bad/ 1 good
So that is a 57% failure rate for me.

I have had two Apple watches - 50% failure rate.

I have bought 3 imacs, one has been back at the shop - 33% issue rate

I have bought 5 iPads, two have issues - 40% failure rate

I have bought 2 apple MBP - had multiple issues with both - 100% issue rate

Of my Apple earphones - 100% failure rate.

I'm just glad that is it easy for me to take things back to Apple but they seriously need to up their game in product life/failures/issues.

 

[I7guy]

I've never had an Android phone so can't comment about their battery/speed changes over time.
I have had 7 iPhones
The 3GS would probably still function - 1 Good
The replacement 4 now has touch disease - 2 Bad
The replacement 5 is still being used - 1 Bad/1 good
The replacement 6 is still being used. - 1 bad/ 1 good
So that is a 57% failure rate for me.

I have had two Apple watches - 50% failure rate.

I have bought 3 imacs, one has been back at the shop - 33% issue rate

I have bought 5 iPads, two have issues - 40% failure rate

I have bought 2 apple MBP - had multiple issues with both - 100% issue rate

Of my Apple earphones - 100% failure rate.

I'm just glad that is it easy for me to take things back to Apple but they seriously need to up their game in product life/failures/issues.

Wow. We’ve had a string of Apple products in the house since the iPhone 4. 3 iPhone 4, 2 5s, 1 iPhone 6, 6s, 6s+, iPhone 7, 7+, Apple TV, 2 iPads and three MacBook airs. Other than self-caused damage failure rate was 1 battery replacement on a 6s.

I’d say Apple is doing well in the quality department. However all anecdotal.