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Ming-Chi Kuo: Global Apple Watch Pre-Orders Exceed 2.3 Million Units

Apple haven't convinced me it is useful, I just see it as something my phone can do and do it better. Maybe it is just me but I don't find it to be any effort at all just looking at my phone, why I ditched watches 15 years ago. If anything having to worry about battery life, charging it every day and having to constantly pull back my sleeve is more effort.

Speaking to people in real life though, no one I've spoke to wants one. We all know Apple has an army of fanboys who buy any old **** from them, I'm guessing most of those sales is from them. I highly doubt we'll be talking about amazing sales numbers in a half a years time when all the people who initially wanted one now have one.
 
GizmoDVD said:
And yet people will still call it a failure.

We get it. You don't like it. Grow up.
Click to expand...

Maybe it's too early to make predictions?

Your comment is hardly mature. How is having doubts about the success of the watch launch immature ? In 3-6 months we will know if people are interested in a apple wearable !

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GizmoDVD said:
You expect everyone who owns an iPhone to get one? Really?

Might as well call every video game every made a failure as well.

Every DVD.

Everything.
Click to expand...

You realize that he was saying 10%.

Your logic to every game, DVD, everything ? is there logic ? Once your start comparing to "everything" without a benchmark, you kind of loose any credibility , and just sounds like a rant. Maybe I read it wrong ?
 
OriginalMacRat said:
Not by a long shot.

Go look up initial sales of iPods and iPhones on release weekend.
Click to expand...

The original iPod launched in November 2001 had sold 600,000 units by January 2003.

Source: http://www.macworld.com/article/1053499/ipodtimeline.html

The original iPhone sold 700,000 in opening weekend.

Source: http://techcrunch.com/2007/07/04/iphone-weekend-one-700000-sold-200million-profit-for-apple/

The iPad sold 300,000 units on day 1, and it wasn't until the 3G version was released that they sold 1 million units.

Sources: https://www.apple.com/pr/library/2010/04/05Apple-Sells-Over-300-000-iPads-First-Day.html
http://www.wired.com/2010/05/apple-ipad-reaches-one-million-sold-twice-as-fast-as-iphone/

So, if the Watch even made it to 1,000,000 units on opening weekend it has outsold the others.
 
GizmoDVD said:
And yet people will still call it a failure.

We get it. You don't like it. Grow up.
Click to expand...

Depends on :
- what you define a success
- how sales will level out once the initial hype wears of

In the end it can't ever be anything but a sideshow to Apple's buisness as by virtue of it's design it will only be interesting to those that allready have an iPhone.

I'd call it a success when the manage to sell one of these for every 5 iPhones sold in 2016.
 
scaramoosh said:
Apple haven't convinced me it is useful, I just see it as something my phone can do and do it better. Maybe it is just me but I don't find it to be any effort at all just looking at my phone, why I ditched watches 15 years ago. If anything having to worry about battery life, charging it every day and having to constantly pull back my sleeve is more effort.

Speaking to people in real life though, no one I've spoke to wants one. We all know Apple has an army of fanboys who buy any old **** from them, I'm guessing most of those sales is from them. I highly doubt we'll be talking about amazing sales numbers in a half a years time when all the people who initially wanted one now have one.
Click to expand...

So because you don't see value it must be a shy product that Apple fanboys buy just because it's made by Apple?

Like anyone is stupid enough to continually buy products that aren't any good or that they don't like.
 
Bug-Creator said:
Depends on :
- what you define a success
- how sales will level out once the initial hype wears of

In the end it can't ever be anything but a sideshow to Apple's buisness as by virtue of it's design it will only be interesting to those that allready have an iPhone.

I'd call it a success when the manage to sell one of these for every 5 iPhones sold in 2016.
Click to expand...

Hype? Most people, at least here in Europe, who doesn't visit technology blogs and don't care in general haven't still heard about it. They'll have to see it in other people's wrists and on celebrities, and when the 2nd or 3rd version is released, then maybe it'll be commonly known and then there'll be hype.
 
boshii said:
If you read the story you would've seen that less than one-tenth of iPhone owners preordered the watch. I wouldn't call it a success yet.

These numbers also don't account for the people who preordered multiple and will return some.
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Your point is completely irrelevant. So if "only" one-tenth of Samsung Galaxy owners pre-ordered a Galaxy Gear watch, it wouldn't be a success. Or if "only" one-tenth of BMW owners pre-ordered a new BMW, it wouldn't be a success.

If a company enters a new market and gains 1% market share initially, that would be considered a success. 1-2 million pre-orders would probably be just about all the smartwatches of all brands sold since the Pebble (which most people would agree is the beginning of the mainstream-ish smartwatch market.) Therefore it's safe to estimate that Apple has already taken 50% market share on the first day or two.
 
MH01 said:
Maybe it's too early to make predictions?

Your comment is hardly mature. How is having doubts about the success of the watch launch immature ? In 3-6 months we will know if people are interested in a apple wearable !

----------



You realize that he was saying 10%.

Your logic to every game, DVD, everything ? is there logic ? Once your start comparing to "everything" without a benchmark, you kind of loose any credibility , and just sounds like a rant. Maybe I read it wrong ?
Click to expand...

He is referring to the Apple haters, aka Android fanboys, who will troll every single Apple article on every tech blog and call Apple users "iSheep" and "iTards" who play with "iToys". I see it every single day.
 
nando87 said:
Hype? Most people, at least here in Europe, who doesn't visit technology blogs and don't care in general haven't still heard about it.
Click to expand...

Dunno, how many of these "watch seen on fashion magazine cover" threads did we have here ? Sure I don't read these magazines, but millions do.

It has also been featured in plenty "low level" news shows on TV.

So yeah, most people owing an iPhone allready know about it(and the rest doesn't count), but out of the 10 or so iPhone-owners I know personally not one has shown any interest in the watch.

On the other side we have an international fanboy community who will out of habit preorder any given :apple: gadget on the 1st day possible. Add up those fashion-victims who just have to have one cos celebrity X was seeing wearing one and 2 million preorders just got far less impressive.


Thats why I still think the watch will be just another sideshow like the AppleTV or the Airport stuff.
 
Foss said:
If a company enters a new market and gains 1% market share initially, that would be considered a success. 1-2 million pre-orders would probably be just about all the smartwatches of all brands sold since the Pebble (which most people would agree is the beginning of the mainstream-ish smartwatch market.) Therefore it's safe to estimate that Apple has already taken 50% market share on the first day or two.
Click to expand...

6.8 million smartwatches were sold in 2014 so even though Apple will soon be the leading smartwatch brand, they haven't equalled all previous sales in a couple of days. :)
 
boshii said:
http://www.cultofmac.com/296353/apple-hopes-sell-50-million-watches-2015/

They will fall well short of their "50 million watches sold" goal if sales continue at this rate. That doesn't make it a huge success.

Don't get me wrong, I have a 42mm SS and 42mm Sport preordered, I just don't think these sales numbers are that impressive considering what their initial goals were.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure where the 50 million watches sold number came from. Certainly not from Apple.
 
I have a feeling because of the Beats acquisition we'll be seeing celebs wearing Apple Watch. Music Videos with artists wearing Apple Watch.
 
Just had a thought about the "Apple Fanboy" (etc) comments - about any Apple product.

First, for people to want to jump on every new thing Apple comes out with, would they not first have to have been very satisfied customers of previous Apple products? And wouldn't that mean Apple is doing really good things to have that kind of customer in large numbers?

And would it not be true that pretty much each time they bought the latest Apple product, they must have been satisfied? If they got burnt a couple times, most would decide it is best to wait.

So, to me, the fact that there are "Fanboys" just reflects well on what Apple sells. I bet other companies wish they had more of it themselves.
 
boshii said:
I never said 100% of iPhone owners need to buy a watch for it to be a success; but like the article says, one-tenth of iPhone users buying the watch means only the hardcore Apple fans have preordered. That doesn't make it a success.
Click to expand...

But it was 1/10th (actually much less) of current iPhone users who bought the original iPhone (like me) and made it the massive success it is today.
 
dabigkahuna said:
Just had a thought about the "Apple Fanboy" (etc) comments - about any Apple product.

First, for people to want to jump on every new thing Apple comes out with, would they not first have to have been very satisfied customers of previous Apple products? And wouldn't that mean Apple is doing really good things to have that kind of customer in large numbers?

And would it not be true that pretty much each time they bought the latest Apple product, they must have been satisfied? If they got burnt a couple times, most would decide it is best to wait.

So, to me, the fact that there are "Fanboys" just reflects well on what Apple sells. I bet other companies wish they had more of it themselves.
Click to expand...

It's just a marketing scheme by Samsung to hate on people devoted to Mac. Samsung would pay billions of dollars to have the "Cult of Samsung" spring to life. Actually they did pay billions of dollars in marketing, and it's safe to say that it failed. How many people jumped ship to just another Android phone manufacturer like LG, HTC, etc.? There are Android fans and a tiny percentage of those are Samsung fans. Apple has the highest retention rate in the business by a mile.

They can call us sheep all that they want, but I just look at them like you will want to be a sheep eventually. They're just young and think how many CPU cores, RAM, etc. is the biggest factor. I was like that when I was younger. Now I'm in my thirties, work a lot, and just want all my gadgets to just work with as little time and effort from me as possible. I'm in IT, and the last thing that I want to do when I'm off work is to troubleshoot my own stuff (or my family's.) :D
 
nando87 said:
Hype? Most people, at least here in Europe, who doesn't visit technology blogs and don't care in general haven't still heard about it. They'll have to see it in other people's wrists and on celebrities, and when the 2nd or 3rd version is released, then maybe it'll be commonly known and then there'll be hype.
Click to expand...

I have the same impression. Besides techblogs the german mainstream media picked up the Smartwatch/Apple Watch topic only for the day after the two keynotes and then let it go. In my opinion the latest price adjustment (for all Apple products) due to currency changes wasn't very well timed. Most articles did some kind of Apple round up after the last keynote and so the Watch got associated with an very pricey image. It is just anecdotical evidence, but most colleagues didn't know what i was talking about when i said the Sport Watch could be interesting for some activities. Maybe this is related to the 18% market share of the iPhone. Iphones aren't really popular around here anymore (only if your employer pays for it). And the fact that the Watch is a companion device doesn't make it easier.
 
scaramoosh said:
Apple haven't convinced me it is useful, I just see it as something my phone can do and do it better. Maybe it is just me but I don't find it to be any effort at all just looking at my phone, why I ditched watches 15 years ago. If anything having to worry about battery life, charging it every day and having to constantly pull back my sleeve is more effort.

Speaking to people in real life though, no one I've spoke to wants one. We all know Apple has an army of fanboys who buy any old **** from them, I'm guessing most of those sales is from them. I highly doubt we'll be talking about amazing sales numbers in a half a years time when all the people who initially wanted one now have one.
Click to expand...

Possibly one of most biased and ignorant posts I've read on this forum and there have been many posts in that category.
So firms should just contact you when they need marketing research because you speak to "people in real life" and they are the barometer of demand. Astonishing!
Apple may have "fanboys" but not more so than Google, Samsung or Microsoft. It's amazing that Apple has been able to charge premium prices for "any old ****". Forget about the countless professionals, sports teams, artists who use a Mac, iPhone or iPad daily. I recall a photo of a roomful of NASA engineers sitting around on a launch day and everyone one of them, save one were using Macs. My, they were so easily duped into using "any old ****".
You obviously have amazing predictive powers since you already know that you "highly doubt we'll be talking
about amazing sales numbers in a half a years time". While that may be true, we really won't know until they are actually available and they are widely panned or lauded. Maybe they become the "in" thing, a status symbol. Maybe they'll prove to be totally useful, particularly after developers create specialized apps for things no one has even thought of yet. Who knows? Oh, that right. YOU KNOW!
 
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sk1wbw said:
He is referring to the Apple haters, aka Android fanboys, who will troll every single Apple article on every tech blog and call Apple users "iSheep" and "iTards" who play with "iToys". I see it every single day.
Click to expand...

So a good defense is a good attack? Something to consider.
 
MH01 said:
You realize that he was saying 10%.

Your logic to every game, DVD, everything ? is there logic ? Once your start comparing to "everything" without a benchmark, you kind of loose any credibility , and just sounds like a rant. Maybe I read it wrong ?
Click to expand...

There was definitely logic to what he was saying. I got it.

He said that, say, There are 78 million Xboxes sold - are we comparing an Xbox game to how well it does to that number? If only 5 million of an Xbox game sells, is that a failure?

Compared to DVDs? There are over 1 billion DVD/Blu-Ray players purchased. If a movie 'only sells' 90 million copies... is it a failure?

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boshii said:
http://www.cultofmac.com/296353/apple-hopes-sell-50-million-watches-2015/

They will fall well short of their "50 million watches sold" goal if sales continue at this rate. That doesn't make it a huge success.

Don't get me wrong, I have a 42mm SS and 42mm Sport preordered, I just don't think these sales numbers are that impressive considering what their initial goals were.
Click to expand...

Fortune-Survey-3-2-15.jpg


http://www.businessinsider.com/analyst-estimates-on-apple-watch-shipments-2015-3

http://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerkay/2015/04/13/apple-watch-wager/

50 million is the HIGHEST PREDICTION. Analysts are predicting between 8 million and 41 million. ONE analyst (Roger Kay from Forbes) who said Apple is a flop, said he would eat his words and wear an Apple t-shirt that said 'I love Steve Cook' if Apple sold 50 million. THIS is why he made that high of a prediction, so he doesn't have to follow through.
 
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