Apply Logic to the Situation
Lets look at this from an empiracle method.
FACTS.
1. 10.3 will be PREVIEWED at WWCD
2. The G4 is killing Apple in its curent performance
3. The Powerbook 15 does not seem to 'fit' the line up of laptops, and is experiencing a longer than typical time between refreshes.
4. I.B.M. is making 970's with vector units compatibl with Altivec- and Apple only technology.
5. The 970 is IN production at some speeds.
6. Upgrade manufactureds have access to 1.42 G4 chips
RUMORS:
1. The 970 will be in a Mac.
2. The WWDC will show a demo of the G5/970
3. 10.3 will ship early
4. G5 systems will ship by July
5. Powerbook 15 will have a 970.
(there are many others too)
ANALYSIS
Its a safe bet that the I.B.M. 970 WILL be in an Apple machine. Although not directly confimed by apple, the mainstream press has picked up on this. There are some strong indicators that Apple and I.B.M. have a financial arrangement for chips, and the vector unit seems to point towards this as well. We know the G4 in its current incarnation is maxed out. The fact that Sonnet and other upgrade makers have announced products based on this menas that either 1) Apple doe snot need them anymore and the suply has loosened. 20 Moto has managed to do something right and produce MORE of something. I suspect the former. The kicker is WHEN will the IBM 970 be in a Mac?
Will Steve show a demo of the G5 at WWDC? Gut feeling is maybe. Why maybe? It is very obvious that if you show a G5 and it rocks, then all G4 sales are virtually null and void. If they have managed to tweak the system, and get this to run, and the machine blows us away, no one is going to buy a G4 except at fire sale prices, which does not help Apple. Worse still, if they show a G5 that is less than optimized, and it sucks ass (i.e. not at least 45% to 75% faster than the same clocked G4) they deflate any momentum and enrgy that would have been gained by the demo. The evidence/rumors point us to the stark reality that 10.2.7 may be 20 to 30 days off still. Further still, it has been suggested that the 970 won't come into its own until 10.3 So, if you were Steve, would you demo a half-assed product? Take a few more weeks to ship and have initil real world tests be less than spectaular? Or demo a machine that will kill current sales and ship into next fiscal quarter? Neither are appealing. I suspect unless the engineers burn some midnight oil and plow though a few cases of RedBull, we won't see/hear much about the G5.
Will 10.3 be ready at WWDC? Well, it going to be pretty damn polished and good for developer types. Hence the delay. But will it be driver tested and user friendly and 'not kill your system' proof? Probably not. It makes little sense to delay WWDC, and then release finished software to please the masses. I think we will see 10.3 before Halloween, but it won't be mainstream just yet. The powerbooks. Like I said, I doubt we will see new hadware at WWDC fo r the reasons above. But I feel all signs point to an initial release of both laptop and desktop units. Humor me on this one: Year of the powerbook. Steve releases the 12 and 17 to great fanfare. Uses a bunch of old or optioned G4 chips and sells some units to make the books look nice. It distracts us momentarily that the desktop line is getting spanked. The 15 is still plugging away with a 1 gig G4 looking pretty damn good for a laptop. 3 months pass. No new powerbook 15. But Apple has forced users to migrate to the two newer models, and 'used' up existing committment of G4 chips. Now, we approach an inroads. I think from technical approaches, we can get a 970 in a laptop. It would be awkward to have the 12 and 17 lag behind the 15 as the sole 970. And it would be awkward to boost the g4 in the 15 and replace it months later. All signs point to the sacrifice of 15 sales, clear the channels, get the initial flurry of sales from the 12 and 17, use up the remaining G4s and have a Year of the Powerbook Orgy with the release of an ALL 970 lineup later this summer.
As always the week leading up to an Apple event are filled with chatter, and ramblings. Some legit, most bogus. In the next week, many sources that play it close to the vest will come forward with info 72 to 48 hours before, knowing the cat is out of the bag soon enough. So in a few more days we will have more concrete rumors- Am I right Arn?
But bear in mind Apple is in a bind. A big one. They know the G4 is DOA for pro machines. They know they need more than just iChat 2, and iTMS to make it pay for Wallstreet.I suspect they have made a big end run gamble, and will do an entire pro-line up 970 summer spectacular knowings its this all or nothng approach and home that speed bumped G4 or enhanced G3+ will smooth over the sales glut with iMac, and iBook sales.
What I think is uniqe, is all this focus on gardware, no one is looking at the software side. I think we will be sad to se eno new hardware, but we will be blown away with some software newness that is being ignored in our frenzy for the G5.
Stay tuned 🙂
[edit spelling errors]