Agree with you about everything here. Since that cryptic earnings call a few weeks ago, there's been a flurry of speculation about what's coming next and as is often the case with apple announcements, most people will end up being disappointed. When apple announced the iPhone at MWSF 07, they did so after 2-3 months of no mac or ipod updates (standard for the holiday season), and followed it with 3-4 months more of no mac or ipod updates. The keynote gave us more info about the already announced apple tv, and unleashed a phone, a widescreen video ipod and a breakthrough internet communications device. Unfortunately, the fact that all that represented only one device and was 6 months away, didn't stop apple neglecting all of their hardware and software lines to the extent that Leopard became heavily delayed. With an ambiguous product shift (or new product) on the horizon, the imminent notebook redesigns and little to offer the iMac at the moment, it'll probably get slept on until january.
As for the iPhone, it seems likely that we will enter an upgrade cycle of capacity bump in Jan, features bump mid-year. Fluctuating rates of flash price drops may cause that model to change eventually, but in the meantime what with the prevalence of 18 month contract, getting 2 capacity bumps and 1 features bump (or vice versa) at the end of every contract, seems like a good deal. I doubt any of the network carriers will let ppl upgrade before their contracts are up now that they're subsidizing the phones like any other; the shift from the revenue sharing model was probably just a one-off.