Sketchy Rumor Says Vision Pro Will Launch in Final Week of January

[JDHiro]

I actually haven't been this excited about a new Apple product in a long time.

It could be a hit, or a miss, but ultimately if Apple can accomplish seamless AR/VR experiences which could potentially replace almost every display in your life... I think the price is not a problem at all.

I'll be an early adopter, but I expect most people to wait.

 

[TracesOfArsenic]

[...] The Vision Pro is 10,000 times more powerful.

And not nearly as capable in that relative sense. How interesting!

 

[citysnaps]

That would require Apple having the device certified as a medical device, which is highly unlikely. Anything used in a medical setting has to meet all sorts of requirements. These fantasy scenarios are just that, fantasy. No doctor is going to use AVP in surgery.

My question was rhetorical, as it seemed he may be a doctor.

I was speaking about AR in general, which has a history of routinely being used in many kinds of surgical procedures... AR-assisted cardio-thoracic surgeries, for example. Hardly fantasy scenarios.

Though not likely, Apple *could* go that direction if what they're developing advances the field, and in the process produces patent-worthy tech.

There are an unlimited number of scenarios where AR could be (and is) used today, in many different disciplines.

 

[deepspacecowboy]

I don’t think it will flop. It just won’t be accessible to most.

A Mercedes Maybach isn’t a flop even though they sell only 7000 cars a year.

True, but the Maybach doesn’t need third party developer support to make it a worthwhile purchase. If developers don’t support Vision Pro, it’s a flop. Look at how few support the Watch, relatively speaking. Or Apple TV. Vision Pro has to sell well enough for developers to be interested. Without apps, it’s a niche product at best.

 

[deepspacecowboy]

My question was rhetorical, as it seemed he may be a doctor.

I was speaking about AR in general, which has a history of routinely being used in many kinds of surgical procedures - cardio thoracic surgeries, for example. Hardly fantasy scenarios.

Though not likely, Apple *could* go that direction if what they're developing advances the field, and in the process produces patent-worthy tech.

Fantasy. Apple isn’t going to get into the medical device market and expose itself to all the liability, headache, compliance issues, etc.

Yes, AR is used in surgery. Those systems are all purpose built for the medical industry. No one is using a Quest.

Pure fantasy. Just like the “three high resolution virtual displays on the plane” fantasy. I think this product is going to disappoint a lot of fans.

 

[citysnaps]

Fantasy. Apple isn’t going to get into the medical device market and expose itself to all the liability, headache, compliance issues, etc.

Yes, AR is used in surgery. Those systems are all purpose built for the medical industry. No one is using a Quest.

Pure fantasy. Just like the “three high resolution virtual displays on the plane” fantasy. I think this product is going to disappoint a lot of fans.

Seems you're intentionally ignoring my "Though not likely..."

Okie dokie, you win. A great example of Post #196.

 

[citysnaps]

But it could be completely possible for medical students and doctors to have an app that provides full-3D immersive walkthrough of the human body. It could be used for educational purposes. Or even patient education about upcoming procedures.

Stop it!

Put your imagination in a lock box and throw away the key. Dreaming and speculating is not tolerated here!

Come up with a hundred reasons why it will flop and you might be able to restore your forum cred.

 

[deepspacecowboy]

But it could be completely possible for medical students and doctors to have an app that provides full-3D immersive walkthrough of the human body. It could be used for educational purposes.

Absolutely. The biggest obstacle there (for now) is that it’s a single user device. Students would have to buy their own. Of course it’s a chicken and egg problem. Someone needs to build these apps that students will use. And that will only happen if there’s enough market penetration.

 

[deepspacecowboy]

Seems you're intentionally ignoring my "Though not likely..."

Okie dokie, you win. A great example of Post #196.

Well if it’s not likely why post about fantasies and try to pass them off as remotely plausible??

 

[deepspacecowboy]

Both of which seem to be successful.

As accessories, not a primary computing platform.

 

[Jensend]

Eye health. I really hope Apple comes with receipts about the effect of strapping two bright screens to your eyes for hours at a time. Common sense is that it would be very bad for your vision, but I'm open to new information.

I'm interested in this use too, but I'm really concerned about what wearing it for extended period will do to our eyes. Strapping bright screens centimeters from your eyes for more than a few minutes seems like a recipe for wrecking your vision in the real world. I'm really hoping Apple addresses this and explains HOW it's safe. It looks really cool, and I want one, but this concerns me.

Consumer VR headsets have been available for about eight years now. I've seen no evidence of anyone suffering a long term vision issue due to wearing a headset, even anecdotally. The Vision Pro will have better displays (and probably optics) than any of those.

VR screens are not very bright, with the brightest consumer model reaching a maximum of 265 nits, and the most popular headset only reaching about 100 nits. And presumably brightness will be adjustable.

The physical distance of the screens from your eyes is irrelevant. The lenses adjust the focus distance to somewhere in the 1 to 2 meter range.

 

[citysnaps]

Well if it’s not likely why post about fantasies and try to pass them off as remotely plausible??

I like to dream and speculate possibilities and ideas - that helped immensely in my systems engineering profession.

You like to find a dozen reasons why something CAN'T be done.

I'm OK with that.

 

[deepspacecowboy]

The point is that Apple is launching a platform for 3D Immersive computing. No, on day 1, not everybody will have these. Not every piece of software will exist. How else would you launch a platform?

Of course Apple will produce more, cheaper, smaller. But it seems to me they've made a compelling device, and despite the naysayers, here, I think there are a lot of people and industries who are thinking of ways to use it.

I don’t agree. Why aren’t any of these industries using the Quest? Why didn’t more industries jump on the HoloLens train?

Sure, Vision Pro looks like a great product but it’s not significantly different than other products that have been out for a while. This idea that there’s all this pent up enterprise demand is nothing more than the forum fan echo chamber effect. If there was so much interest in AR for business and speciality use cases, existing devices would be more popular and we’d see developers developing those kinds of apps.

 

[citysnaps]

Because while it may be a fantasy now, I'd be willing to bet that Apple has and will invest more into this tech than any other company, and it's wholly plausible that within a decade of development, Apple will have tech and patents that will inform the future of such projects in medical use.

Spot on... I can see it.

 

[deepspacecowboy]

Because while it may be a fantasy now, I'd be willing to bet that Apple has and will invest more into this tech than any other company, and it's wholly plausible that within a decade of development, Apple will have tech and patents that will inform the future of such projects in medical use.

And all the companies today that already make AR systems for the medical industry? I’m sure they have no patents. Apple will just waltz in and eat their lunch one day. And completely shift its focus from the largely unregulated consumer electronics industry to the heavily and onerously regulated medical industry.

Sure.

 

[colocolo]

I think you are deliberately missing his point. He is not arguing it is a likely scenario; he is saying, quite clearly, that imagining new ways to use a product helps you dream bigger. I agree, it is extremely unlikely. As I gather, he thinks so too. But, in the context he was saying it - the possibilities of AR, which are being discussed here - is relevant.

Most points argue why an AR device has to flop. Imagining many different things you can plausibly do with them is kind of an argument to why it might succeed.
In the end, two ways to view the world. Finding obtuse reasons to say no and don't ever consider happier possibilities, or dreaming.

EDIT: I have no idea if it will succeed or not. I hope it does, as I do hope with most products that try and move the bar, regardless of the company. Still, I favor positive comments in general. Goes better with my way of life and, from a similar background as citysnaps it seems - I find dreaming plays an important role as a computer engineer who owns a small company for a living.

 

[citysnaps]

I think you are deliberately missing his point. He is not arguing it is a likely scenario; he is saying, quite clearly, that imagining new ways to use a product helps you dream bigger. I agree, it is extremely unlikely. As I gather, he thinks so too. But, in the context he was saying it - the possibilities of AR, which are being discussed here - is relevant.

Most points argue why an AR device has to flop. Imagining many different things you can plausibly do with them is kind of an argument to why it might succeed.
In the end, two ways to view the world. Finding obtuse reasons to say no and don't ever consider happier possibilities, or dreaming.

A breath of fresh air. THANK YOU!


"Most points argue why an AR device has to flop."

Sadly, that's the culture here, reflexively coming up with myriad reasons why anything new from Apple will flop.

That goes waaay back to iPod, and continues to this day.

I guess that's easier and quicker than taking a few minutes to stir up one's imagination and dream a bit.

 

[smulji]

You're suggesting that the price is too high for what it is? My parents bought our first Mac (SE) in 1990 for $3500. The Vision Pro is 10,000 times more powerful.

The good thing about the first Mac is it didn't have to be strapped around your head to use it. Nor was it as isolating.

 

[deepspacecowboy]

I think you are deliberately missing his point. He is not arguing it is a likely scenario; he is saying, quite clearly, that imagining new ways to use a product helps you dream bigger. I agree, it is extremely unlikely. As I gather, he thinks so too. But, in the context he was saying it - the possibilities of AR, which are being discussed here - is relevant.

Most points argue why an AR device has to flop. Imagining many different things you can plausibly do with them is kind of an argument to why it might succeed.
In the end, two ways to view the world. Finding obtuse reasons to say no and don't ever consider happier possibilities, or dreaming.

So it’s highly unlikely…but let’s waste our time talking about nonsense fantasies instead of discussing actual use cases and what might actually convince people to buy the product. Got it.

I could fantasize about how my car is going to take me to the moon one day. I’m dreaming! Sheesh.

 

[femike]

There are lots of rich Apple fans who would buy this and there's many on YouTube who are going to endlessly praise this. Well, enough for Apple to keep it viable. Also there is going to be a cheaper version without the spooky eyes, so Apple fans would praise that even more. Apple fans, YouTube influencers, US media and tech websites, are all going to pitch in for the marketing of this. Apple has a large promotional army at the ready.

 

[deepspacecowboy]

Because Quest was and remains a toy, mainly for gaming. Because the specs for adequate resolution and intuitive use were lacking. Because it wasn't a pro device. As for HoloLens...maybe becasue Microsoft didn't nail it. Go watch video reviewers who have used HoloLens and then demo'd AVP, and they all say it's a dramatic difference in quality. Apple understood that to properly launch a product in this space, it had to exceed what already existed in the space. Because the tech needs that level of refinement to attract development beyond gaming.

I don’t disagree with that assessment overall but there’s still no evidence that there’s any pent up enterprise demand. I also believe that if industries really saw the value in this stuff, they would have embraced these other products even if they aren’t perfect. Quest is more than adequate for many of the AR fantasies I see the same five people doggedly spinning here.

 

[WarmWinterHat]

Because Quest was and remains a toy, mainly for gaming. Because the specs for adequate resolution and intuitive use were lacking. Because it wasn't a pro device. As for HoloLens...maybe becasue Microsoft didn't nail it. Go watch video reviewers who have used HoloLens and then demo'd AVP, and they all say it's a dramatic difference in quality. Apple understood that to properly launch a product in this space, it had to exceed what already existed in the space. Because the tech needs that level of refinement to attract development beyond gaming.

Unfortunately they screwed up by making in single user. I could see this taking off in the education scene, if it could be shared among students.

This is really, really, going to be hindrance to adoption. Parents might buy one for the family, but they aren't going to buy four.

A high-end Mac is usable by everyone. A VR headset in a classroom could be shared.

 

[citysnaps]

And all the companies today that already make AR systems for the medical industry? I’m sure they have no patents. Apple will just waltz in and eat their lunch one day.

Yeah... like Apple waltzing in with iPhone, having the audacity to challenge Motorola, Ericsson, and Nokia (collectively known as MEN, the GIANTS in the cellular communications industry).

Yeah, they probably had no patent's either! Kidding... hundreds/thousands wouldn't surprise me.


So... Where are MEN (Motorola/Ericsson/Nokia) now?

And where is Apple now?

.

 

[WarmWinterHat]

Yeah... like Apple waltzing in with iPhone, having the audacity to challenge Motorola, Ericsson, and Nokia (collectively known as MEN, the GIANTS in the cellular communications industry).

Yeah, they probably had not patent's either! Kidding... thousands wouldn't surprise me.


So... Where are MEN (Motorola/Erricsonn/Nokia) now? And where is Apple now?

They are still very big companies, just not in the consumer space. They are in commercial and industrial hardwarw.

 

[WarmWinterHat]

But again, you're arguing about something that hasn't even shipped yet, and is in version 1. And, as I understand it, the iPad has multi user support for educational purposes. Classrooms have that built into the software. Apple will grow and adapt the product in specific ways. I think they problem they have now is that the device will be fitted to a person; but it's highly possible that tomorrow they announce "user" profiles and different fittings.

Imagine.

Don't buy based on imagination. Buy based on what's available now, not what might be.