i don't think dallas can beat the heat, they're too old.
Historically, youth hasn't been an advantage in the NBA playoffs. Teams with young stars occasionally win the championship, but young teams almost never do. You might have to go back to the '77 Trailblazers to come up with a young team that won the NBA title.
That's why i don't think they will win. The heat have 3 guys that can have big games on different nights, we have seen it countless times. You can't expect dirk to come out and put up 40 points consistently throughout a SERIES. Plus they don't have home court.
That's one way to look at it. Another way to look at it is that you only have to shut down two of Miami's big three to stifle their offense. Obviously that's easier said than done, but if any coach left in the playoffs can think of a way, it's Rick Carlisle. For all his faults, he's a solid Xs and Os guy. If Dallas can clog up the paint and force James and Wade to shoot jumpers, then they'll be in pretty good shape.
Dallas doesn't have a star scorer besides Dirk, but their 4-9 players on the depth chart are better than Miami's. Dallas' bench can keep them in games. Miami doesn't have a point guard that can make Kidd expend a lot of energy on the defensive end or a big man that can keep Chandler or Nowitzki off the boards.
any team in the west would have beat the lakers, they were the weakest team in the playoffs.
That's not true at all. At the very least, the Hornets must have been worse, right? The Hawks, Knicks, Magic, Sixers, and Pacers were all worse teams than the Lakers. I would argue that the Spurs and Nuggets wouldn't have won a first-round series against them either. It's easy to say now -- after getting swept by what looks like the best team in the playoffs right now -- that the Lakers were washed up, but Dallas gave LA terrible matchup problems that most of the other playoff teams wouldn't have.
No doubt dirk is playing well, but there is no defense in any of the series.
I don't think it's entirely due to lack of defense. The West teams can actually score. The Bulls have only one player (Rose) that can make anything happen on offense. All of his teammates just react to his plays. In the games that Rose hasn't had his shot, the Bulls have struggled to score points. Their defense keeps them in games that they would otherwise lose, which is a key to their success. But who have they played in the East playoffs that can score as well as Dallas can?
The Mavs are by far the best "story" in terms of a championship. People like the Bulls and Thunder, but they are the future, the up and comers. Many don't like the Heat for what has already been mentioned. Dallas has the best appeal as a "feel good" end to the year.
I think that's true. I think that people want to see Dirk succeed after playing so long and so well in Dallas, especially after he signed a long-term deal in the offseason when a lot of people thought he'd have to go elsewhere to win a title. (He still might though.)
It's become somewhat of a cliche that young teams have to "pay their dues" in the playoffs before becoming champions, but there really is something to it. We saw in the last two games, with both the Bulls and Thunder letting games slip away from them, that you have to get your heart broken a few times before you realize the kind of intensity that's needed to win a title.
Different sport, but relevant: Wayne Gretzky tells the story of losing the 1983 Stanley Cup finals to the New York Islanders, who swept the high-scoring Oilers with stifling defense. After the final game, he and Messier walked past the Islanders' locker room, expecting to see them celebrating. They were nursing injuries and resting instead. They both realized that they hadn't been nearly tough enough to beat the defending champs, that what looked like an easy sweep was actually a grueling feat of endurance instead. The following year they knew what was required and beat the Islanders in the finals rematch, 4-1.
