I thought it was the top two teams but after reading your post I reread the BBC site and now I agree that ROI have no chance with out right qualification and think the will fall by the wayside.
On the new information I'll revise my statements
NI out
ROI out
Wales out
Scotland out
England risky
How can you tip Scotland to qualify in one post and then change your mind 40 minutes later? Are you assuming that Scotland will get the second place and go out in the playoffs? I really don't see Norway being any problem, so we are probably looking at least at 2nd and a place in the play-offs.
Actually, Scotland's record in play-offs is abysmal, the only two I remember are England (beaten) and Netherlands (won the first leg, lost 6-0 second leg.)
However, two important points; we are in the group of 5 so we don't have any minnows to slip up against (i.e. Faroes.) and ii) we are facing one of the biggest underachieving international teams ever. We would have been happy with Greece, Croatia or Holland, and we missed the big guns.
And in case you missed it, Scotland won the World Cup this evening in a playoff!