Hard to say. Mine has said deliver by 10/12 a couple of weeks now. I got charged Thursday night, got my shipping info Friday mid-day and it states I'll get it tomorrow. Ordered 64gb 6s Plus on 9/21 with estimated delivery date of 10/14 initially.
Side note....Verizon sucks! I called fedex to make sure the package was held at the hub before an attempted delivery to hopefull pick it up tonight or tomorrow morning and the fedex rep told me Verizon has placed a restriction on the shipment that states an attempted delivery has to be made before it can be held. I work a 10-7 tomorrow, so I won't get the phone till Wednesday at the earliest