That's true, but there are other issues with the cellphone market that separate it from, say, the computer market which is much more, er, utilitarian. The cellphone market is partly driven by superficial factors that make it more volatile... fashionability, "schoolyard gadget envy", things like that. It's sad, but the ability to say "look what I have!" is actually important to many cellphone buyers, and the iPhone's charm of novelty days have come to an end. "Hey, check out this new thing I have called iPhone, you can download apps and watch videos and stuff!". "Yaaaaaaawn." Yeah, it's the kind of customers you wish wouldn't exist, but they do. If they move on from the iPhone so that there's only those who buy iPhones for "mature" reasons left, it's not the end of the world but certainly enough to flatten the curve a bit. Nokia has been able to maintain their huge marketshare by spitting out more models than Nike and Adidas, to keep the fashion junkies, the gadget envy junkies and the easily bored buying more phones, but Apple offers a single model that gets updated once a year and has looked pretty much the same since day 1. That's not gonna fly as far as the fickle and the easily bored customer segment is concerned.