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All CEOs say the same thing. I mean what can he say realistically ? "We are afraid of Apple and possibly we go down similar to Nokia or BlackBerry" isn't going to help VW either.
Don’t make such definitive statements.

He could have said Apple coming into the car market may create more fierce competition but I believe our products now and in the future are strong and competitive and they won’t have it all their own way. Or something to that effect.
 
is the same thing with the apple watch....you think Rolex, patek philippe , augmentin pique care about the apple watch success ? or you think they were afraid when the rumored about an apple watch started to appear?
No...and they still dont
So, its ok for competition point of view, nothing more, nothing less
As noted, Apple Watch sales exceeded the entire Swiss watch industry combined in 2019 as noted, but here’s the kicker: Morgan Stanley “ forecasts (for 2020) a drop in Swiss watch exports this year of 32% in volume to 14 million units and a 19.5% contraction in value to CHF 16 billion (that’s $17.9B USD). In value terms, this signifies a return to 2010 levels. More concerning, the decline in volume takes the industry to its lowest level since 1946: half the number for 2011, when the industry shipped a record 29.8 million units.”

meanwhile, Apple Wearables continue to grow, even during 2020. If we suggest 55-60% of Apple Wearables is Watch (the rest AirPods, HomePods, etc.) Apple’s CY 2020 Wearables totaled $33.52B which gives Apple Watch roughly ~$18.4B-20B in sales revenue, some of which was lost by Swiss Watch industry. Apple Watch takes about 35% of the smart watch market while Swiss Watch makers trying to enter the smartwatch market are less than 3%. Will the hopefully recovering world economy in the next 2 years help the Swiss? Maybe, but look for smart watches to continue to eat Swiss market share, especially as the older adults die off.
Imagine thinking Tesla is very successful when they manage to sell half a million cars per year, when VWAG is selling 10 million cars per year, and already outselling Tesla in the European electric car market, and that's without being fed free money.

There really is a, quite frankly, frightening, cult going on with Tesla. Let's be honest. It seems to be a common phenomena in the US these days. Cults all over the place.
By the same token and data, Porsche manages to be THE best profitable company owned by VW and Porsche sold 272K vehicles in 2020, their 2nd highest on record. So if Tesla sells 500K vehicles worldwide and rising, eventually they become more profitable. Put Apple in that position and Apple can and would figure out how to grow their market, possibly at the expense of others.

“To be fair, this forum was full of people stating the Apple Watch would be a failure. The question is not ever about market share, but about profit share and Apple is good at taking an outsized portion of their market’s profit.”

Very true, Apple will not enter a market without understanding how to do it profitably over the long haul.

But they are. I can assemble and disassemble an iPhone on my own, and I'm just a fanboy. I can't even start to do that with a car, and I'm an engineer.

Heh, not much of an engineer then IMO. Consider the millions of mechanics who can’t design a car yet can take it completely apart and reassemble it again. Same thing with an aircraft engine. Both design and assembly are complex, but neither is impossible to understand OR to undertake and master. But both require training, education, skills, and mastery of the workforce tasked to do so

How are they not more complex?

My phone doesn't need to start after sitting outside at -15, transport me 35 miles while also providing heat & comfort. My phone can't have an impact with another device at 60 MPH and keep me relatively safe.

I think you are oversimplifying the problems automakers need to face to bring reliable modes of transport to the masses.

perhaps you underestimate the need to design 12-16 billion chip CPUs and the manufacturing needed to make those in 5nm process fabs, or to microminiaturize all of the components and them in a chassis that fits in your palm, assembling 200+Million units (that’s Apple alone and greater than 2.5x the 79M vehicles sold worldwide in 2019) and having them work day in, day out for 5+ Years with NO maintenance other than a battery change?
Excuse me, but you don't know what you're talking about. This is not a matter of opinion. Manufacturing cars is the most complex mass manufacturing there is.

IMO, making commercial and military aircraft is probably more complex and more difficult.
No, no. I can buy all the spare parts the way they arrive at the assembly line and assemble an iPhone myself. Maybe you can't, but I can. And it isn't complex.

Ah, but you have to have someone else put the assemblies together (like soldering all the chips and components to the boards, designing and creating the complex fit of all components so that they do fit together). In essence, you’re saying you can do the job of any Foxconn worker assembling an iPhone, while completely ignoring all the work done for you and before you getting the parts. Now tell us how you would put together all the raw basic parts, connectors, boards, display, camera and sensors if laid out, unsoldered, raw from the parts bin?? Much tougher isn’t it?
 
VW: "We're in the process of getting wiped out by Tesla, no time to worry about Apple just now... "

Similarly, Apple will have to pull a pretty big surprise to be able to compete with Tesla - I was really impressed with their in-car electronics - looks smooth, in some ways it's like a whole new Apple competitor, they could start making phones no problem.

Why? They have the battery tech... they got all the UX goodness from their car systems.... they have the name.... they have the manufacturing.... all things considered it would be easier for Tesla to get into phones than for Apple to get into cars. Only thing Tesla is missing is a platform but they could likely just create their own android store and be done with it.
 
Unless it’s reverse psychology, I don’t understand his statement. Even though Apple may have a hand in a successful car, that’s still not remotely a reason for the world’s largest automobile manufacturers to be scared. Apple is a successful laptop maker, but does that scare Lenovo?
 
Might be a case of great strategy combined with poor execution. In my experience, it works better the other way round.

I would not be very surprised if Apple were thinking of creating their own CarOS and associated hardware.
There was a report a while back that Dan Dodge (QNX) had joined Apple. Haven't heard anything recently though.
 
The auto industry wasn’t afraid of Tesla, either. In the words of Pepper Brooks “It’s a bold strategy, Cotton; let’s see how it works out for them.”
 
There is a lot of fanboyism here that think Apple could do no wrong. Learn that the jack of all trades is master of none. Apple will not be successful as a phone maker, computer OS, movie producer, financial services, car manufacturers, software maker, CPU designer, antenna designers...etc . They will fail at some point.

Let me remind you that Apple failed with MobileMe and iTunes Ping which is part of their core business. They also exited the server market and the router market.
 
Why would they be afraid ? Tesla is already very present for investors but it didn't take any of the VW market shares. Apple will most probably not be different, if they ever actually come in this market. The automotive market is experiencing a revolution today anyhow and companies with strong RnD teams like VW or Toyota are well positioned to profit from it.
Well, maybe for now... In the last 5 years in Norway and Switzerland Tesla has sold more luxury sedans (in terms of the sales prices) than all vendors of luxury cars combined!!! Somebody may argue that these two countries belong to the wealthiest ones in the world und thus it's an exception rather than the rule. But now, with the model 3 coming out in sufficient numbers to satisfy a broader demand, Tesla is now eating away even more market share of the big car manufacturers. So Tesla is not winning by numbers, it's rather winning by reducing the sales of the most profitable segments of its competitors. And Tesla has very little money to do whatever they are doing.
Just imagine what Apple may do with the biggest capital owned by a single company in the whole world!!!
If they get the right brains and the right industrial partners on board, they may very well shake the entire car industry!
 
Some people are unable to learn neither from the past nor from other people's bad experiences...
 
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Apple's chance of success with ANY Apple Car is probably ONLY 1% Best Case !
OMG, you are not seeing the whole picture!
I would usually agree 100% with you, but... We are talking about Apple, a company with an exceptional track record in innovation -in terms of products, services, industry, design, communication, engineering, a.o.- and operations. And it is the company with the biggest capital on earth. If they wanted to, they could invest tens of billions of dollars in this venture right now, but it makes more sense to close a partnership deal with another experienced car manufacturer and vendor.
I'm pretty sure they have above 60% chances to revolutionise and take over a huge chunk of the car transportation world in 5-10 years from now.
 
TLDR: Tesla is the only Company that’s ahead of VW. Lucid is just a concept car they still have to proof that they can mass produce.

The competitive landscape is getting more and more varied. The traditional manufacturers are starting their chase, for example:
  • Nissan/Renault: Renault Zoe (bestseller in Europe), Leaf, Ariya (upcoming Tesla Y competitor)
  • Toyota: e-TNGA platform (Model Y competitors under Toyota and Lexus brands)
  • VW: Porsche (premium EV platform), VW ID family
  • Mercedes-Benz: EQ family, (EQS being much more premium than Tesla S)
  • BMW: iX family
  • PSA: Opel/Peugeot/Citroën, a lot of middle class EVs
  • Hyundai: already strong with Kona/Niro, Ioniq family
The number of different models really available (something you can really buy and drive) will explode this year. Tesla will lose market share, but as the total number of EVs sold increases very fast, it may still grow and gain profitability.
 
Don’t make such definitive statements.

He could have said Apple coming into the car market may create more fierce competition but I believe our products now and in the future are strong and competitive and they won’t have it all their own way. Or something to that effect.

On one hand, I see your point because the message is direct. On the other hand, I like it how he was direct and not massaging it.

Many people like beating around the bush because they are afraid or want to seem neutral. Clearly he doesn’t care. Your counter business speak will be interpreted as what was originally said by people who can read in between the lines
 
Ah, but you have to have someone else put the assemblies together (like soldering all the chips and components to the boards, designing and creating the complex fit of all components so that they do fit together).

Actually, no, manual pick-and-place assembly and reflow soldering is a lot easier than you think.

Your point stands with regards to design, however.
 
Well, maybe for now... In the last 5 years in Norway and Switzerland Tesla has sold more luxury sedans (in terms of the sales prices) than all vendors of luxury cars combined!!!
The problem with this comparison is that it may not be that relevant, after all.

First, five years ago the Norwegians (who are extremely heavily incentivized to by BEVs) could choose from Tesla and Nissan Leaf. Tesla Model S is much less expensive than any other luxury car due to tax breaks.

Second, luxury sedans are a niche segment in Europe. Audi A6, BMW 500, Mercedes E, Volvo V90 are very popular as estate (wagon/touring) cars.

And even if you look at what has happened in Norway during the last year, Tesla has lost market share. Audi e-tron was the most popular followed by Model 3 and ID.3 selling the same number (but ID.3 starting only in September). The list continues with Leaf e-Golf and Kona.

As Audi e-tron is more luxurious than Model 3, and Model S is not on the list, Tesla does not seem to be a clear winner even in the luxury car category. Tesla has been able to sell a lot of cars to Norwegians, but the Norwegian tax policy is exceptional, and there has not been much choice.

The situation is quite different in the US, but Europeans tend to prefer European and Asian cars to American cars. Tesla has its fans, but most people choose their cars based on price and features.
 
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"Take Over". means revolutionary that will cause the industry competitors to go out of business.
If that is your definition, it is really easy to say the likelihood of them “taking over” is close to zero. Even in the markets where they have taken all the profits, they have not caused ”the industry competitors to go out of business”. They have caused some (or many) to exit the market in which they had been competing with Apple, but few have ceased to exist.
Apple's overall philosophy about their products would have to change if they enter the market. They cannot change the market to their way of doing things as they usually try to do. This market they will have to change their ways or "think different" about themselves and how they do business.
Apple has been really good at both adapting to the world where they need to do so and forcing the world to adapt to them where they do not. I would expect the exact same thing to happen in this market if they choose to enter it.
If something does not work, malfunctions and/or has a defect in the current "Apple way" of doing things, that thinking will not work with cars. It will not just be "Yes, Apple makes a mistake", this is about lives.
You mean like their medical devices which FDA clearance?

They have to "rethink" their way of doing business if they get into the car industry unless they get an auto company to partner with them and Apple just be the designer of the look and concepts, which from rumors has been difficult and their is probably good reasons why auto companies are passing.
Why? What in specific do they have “rethink”?
Not because they are "scared" of Apple, but the liability of what they are presenting is probably not in their interest or too risky to partner with. So Apple will "just does it themselves.." Humm...that will be interesting to watch and see what happens.
I have no idea whether Apple will enter this market, nor whether they will work with an existing car manufacturer or some other contract manufacturer. I am curious how long you have been practicing law in the area of product liability to understand the issues these companies would face. Those that I have discussed this with seem to think that Apple as the designer would be on the hook, but maybe you know more than they do.

If my “just does it themselves” you mean they build and run a factory, I would be shocked. They might design everything down to the tooling, but they are unlikely to hire assembly line workers themselves.
If something does not work, they cannot keep silent or just go into denial mode like Apple's proven pattern currently is.
Unlike all the companies in the auto world who are always super forthcoming about their issues. Right.
Or try to cover up or fix before a law suit. They cannot silently just redesign a faulty keyboard or lower a battery replacement cost for one year to make people forget. This is a world now of lawsuits if someone sneezes etc. and if someone spills their coffee on their laps while Siri says something wrong etc. as they are trying to go to Starbucks. They will have to pay lawyers to live and sleep in the courts, let alone if their car malfunctions and kills someone(s). They can't just put a product out and have beta testers as the buyers of their product try out their product to see if it works.
You have an odd view of how Apple does design and manufacturing. I am pretty sure that they do not put out beta hardware to regular users ever, but maybe I am just not cool enough to have received that.
Ideas and designing cool technology is one thing, but the business behind the car industry, including all of the headaches, safety regulations, assurances to cover themselves, and many many other things is more than just coming up with a "cool or hip" looking car.
That you think that Apple is just about “cool or hip” looking products shows what you have missed. Apple is all about building a great ecosystem. I have no idea what they will do that would differentiate an Apple car, or if they will even bother to make one, but I am pretty sure it will be all about ecosystem integration if they decide to do something.
Apple will have to morph into something they are not currently to be successful. Is it that much worth doing just to have a cool apple car go along with my hip Apple Watch so I look cool to my peers? Maybe not for the stockholders, we will see.
What will they have to “morph into”? People buy Apple products because them provide an integrated experience that exceeds that of other companies. Why those who do not use them denigrate them with statements “so I can look cool to my peers” or calling their customers sheep/cult members. Apple has the highest customer satisfaction numbers in the industry because people like their products, not because they like their image.
Apple makes mistakes...but in this field...a mistake could take them out of business.
Like the Pinto did with Ford? A car with such a bad reputation that it was a joke in the movie Top Secret. Must have been GM with its side fuel tanks? Anything is possible, but given history, it seems pretty unlikely.
It does not matter how much money they have. One "mistake" could cost them everything in this game. Yes they can learn, but is it worth their efforts?
If you think this is a bad idea because of liability, you must hate the idea of blood glucose monitoring and any other health initiatives. Those would bring in much less revue and increase the size of the risk pool tremendously. If they sell 750,000 cars a year, with an average selling price of $50,000 and the same 20%-25% margin, that is between $7.5 billion and $9.375 billion in profit. Seems like a market big enough to make it worth it.
A flying car might be worth the effort instead, but just a car that drives itself instead of taking a taxi is not worth all of the headaches and risks just to put a Apple logo on a car while I wear my cool A.I. apple sunglasses in it.
Right, we get that you think that Apple products are just about branding. Other people (including those making decisions at Apple) have a different view as to their value proposition. People who make far more than I do will have to decide whether they have a value add for this market, but it would not surprise me either way.
I am not saying that Apple "shouldn't" try or design or even come up with ideas about a future car or anything or even hinder not trying. I am saying the car industry is not concerned. They might (like apple does) just watch what Apple tries to do and then do something better.
I guess that is certainly possible. Given that it seems likely that any Apple car product would be designed around Apple’s ecosystem, and would take advantage of Apple’s traditional strength in software, silicon and UI/UX, areas in which the traditional car companies are weak, that approach seems a bit problematic. I guess we will have to wait and see if Apple even decides to enter this market.
 
I understand VW‘s stance. We have been shown time and again that no amount of failure on their part will keep them from landing on their feet.
 
If they are meaningless, why are you arguing against my point, yet confirming in the same post that Apple uses contract manufacturing?
I am arguing that your definitions are so broad as to be meaningless. To compare the design of the product and design of the manufacturing process (including things like precision laser drills where Apple bought the company that made them) that Apple does, to the kick starter phones made with off the off the shelf SoCs and parts and say “they are both contract manufacturing“ and so equivalent is just silly.

They may have Apple designed silicon and circuit paths, but they rely on TSMC and other vendors manufacturing technologies to produce them at smaller sizes.
You say this as if it is incidental to the product.
Customers owning the equipment manufacturers use to build their products is not unique to the Foxconn / Apple relationship. It is a neat CapEX trick that Apple learned from other companies who use hybrid outsourcing, yet does it quite well as a rule. It gives them more control of the process, but isn't the same as them making it themselves as you seem to be implying.
Apple does not just own the gear used in these contract manufacturers, they design the whole manufacturing process. The contract manufacturers provide bodies and space. Pretty much everything else in the process comes from Apple.
Regarding your question to me, it is totally irrelevant.
Sorry, my question is not irrelevant it is central. The premise of the discussion was that manufacturing a car is so complex and unlike anything Apple has done as to make it unlikely they will succeed. My point is not that manufacturing a car is easy or simple (although electric cars are much simpler than cars with internal combustion engines), just that it is no more complex than the kind of manufacturing Apple does already, it is just different. Since no one here has yet come up with a clear quantification of complexity of manufacturing and therefore we cannot reach an agreement, I moved back to the underlying question.
I wasn't commenting about Apple's ability (or not) to make a car, nor was that ever my point in responding to your posts.
But that was the whole point of the discussion. Not some abstract measure of manufacturing complexity, on which no one here seems to be able to agree.

You need to stop moving the goal posts and this isn't the first time you have done that. In another side conversation, you brought up the Apple Watch when the topic I was responding to was regarding differences of complexity in building a car versus a mobile phone.
Again, the discussion was not about the phone per se, but about Apple skill in manufacturing and design for manufacturing, hence the example of the watch.
To bring together both issues and posts of yours I commented on, Cars are very complex, if they weren't, Apple would be in the market already, there are many moving parts both literally and figuratively to bring something to market.
Completely agree that cars are complex, and that they are different than other things Apple has manufactured. I have never claimed otherwise. My point is simply that are not more complex than other things that Apple makes, just different. While it is true that electric cars are much easier (not easy, just easier), they are still very large complex systems. Given how long it took Apple from their first prototype until their first phone, I am not convinced the reason they are not on the market is that car manufacturing is hard. I would guess they are not on the market yet because they have not even figured out if they want to build a car and what exactly their value add will be. Apple likes to figure these things out in private, rather than with early public releases like the GSM card for the Handspring was them trying to understand what people might want in a phone.
If there wasn't Tesla wouldn't have so many recalls or poor customer satisfaction with regards to component failures up to this day. There would also be FAR more electric cars available as (like the SUV Boom) Manufacturers could charge a premium on the overall hype and popularity of such products that are less complex to build than an ICE powered car.
Please show me where I claimed that car manufacturing is easy. I have never said that, nor do I believe that. I just think it is no more complex than other things that Apple already does, just different. It will require new people with new expertise, just as each new manufacturing process they have adopted has needed. They have a process for building these things out and if they decide a car it will be one more thing they make.
That said, in response to your question (that was never part of our previous conversation) I have faith that Apple can overcome these issues and build a proper automobile but It will take time.
You responded to points in an ongoing discussion. My response to you, was not intended to be separate from that conversation, but supporting my general points that:
  • if Apple decides to build a car (something I still am not convinced is certain), they have and/or can add the needed skills to do it.
  • if Apple decides to build a car their measure of success will not be that they are the volume leader or have the largest market share, rather that they will take a disproportionate share of the market‘s profits.
This isn't a modern replacement for an antiquated feature phone, this is a technological advancement in Transportation with many, many complex technical and legal obsticals attached.
The iPhone was not “a modern replacement for an antiquated feature phone” it was a competitor to years of other companies smart phones with “many complex technical and legal obstacles attached”. Cars have safety standards and related regulations, but the ecosystem into which they fit is pretty simple in that they do not directly interact with other complex systems. All the complexity of a car is internal to the car (at least until we get smart roads), meaning that one gets to mange that complexity any way one wants. By way of clarification (and an extreme simplification) one could decide to build an active suspension because one already has experience with electronics that would be needed, rather than build a passive suspension because one does not have the experience with the mechanical components needed to make that work.

Phones have lots of regulations as well, but also have to directly interact with many networks built with many different companies hardware and software. When Apple wanted to add visual voicemail, that was not just something they could do on their device, but it was something they needed to get AT&T (and eventually other carriers) to make changes to their systems to support.

What makes makes self driving cars hard is that they can only control what they do, rather than force changes that would make this much easier and safer (e.g. make all traffic control devices transmit a signal that reported their state and let cars in transit request changes based on traffic flow, rather than force smart cars to read their state from signals optimized for human vision).
 
When the Apple Car is released, the rest of the auto industry will die... laughing.
 
Trivia: I come from a time when there was no AppleCare and in the early days of AppleCare. You just took your Apple gear into the Apple Store; they fixed it and sent you on your way with no co-pay.
Sorry, AppleCare predates the Apple Store. Also, there is no co-pay for Apple Care services that are not accidental damage and there never has been. They simply extend the hardware and software support for two years and 33 months respectively.
I recall about 5-6 times when the item could be a few days, a few weeks, or even several months after the warranty; no charge. That's when Apple treated customers with extraordinary customer service.
Apple makes exceptions all the time. What Apple Care+ did was make it so that things were more predictable for the customer and not based on the luck of the draw. Now everyone knows what it will cost if they break their screen.
 
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If Apple launches an impeccable full self driving car, along with a great car sharing software with little to no issues at all, I think it will be actually hard for other companies to catch up fast. Soon, software will have a greater impact than hardware, on cars.
 
I don't at all think this is fair. Firstly EVERY car manufacturer has had customers with fatal accidents so this is not unique to Tesla. There are plenty of cars on the road with manufacturing defects that resulted in death to the driver so by your logic you might as well never buy a car from any manufacturer. Secondly from what I read people were using the Auto-Pilot mode on their Tesla which is not the same as a Self-driving car. These people were engaged in other things while the car was in their mind, "Self-Driving". One article explained a person playing a video game and had no attention paid to how the car was driving so it was that person's fault. Negligence is the #1 reason for car accidents and deaths.
It doesn't change the fact that Tesla's technology doesn't know how to deal with lines still painted on roads from construction that happened previously. At least one of the people who have died in an autopilot related accident died because the car followed lines that were not entirely removed. Also, I have watched the videos online showing how great the existing "Summon" feature isn't. There will not be autonomous cars widespread as long as cars are relying on nothing but LIDAR sensors and cameras.

All that said, I am quite baffled by people on this forum that seem to believe that making a car is not that different from making a phone or computer. Sure, Apple has knocked quite a few gadgets out of the park, but a fail along the lines of the butterfly keyboard would be more of a dramatic issue in the automotive world than it was with the Mac. I will be quite surprised if Apple ever makes a car.
 
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It doesn't change the fact that Tesla's technology doesn't know how to deal with lines still painted on roads from construction that happened previously. At least one of the people who have died in an autopilot related accident died because the car followed lines that were not entirely removed. Also, I have watched the videos online showing how great the existing "Summon" feature isn't. There will not be autonomous cars widespread as long as cars are relying on nothing but LIDAR sensors and cameras.
Well obviously you've done your homework on this. I'm new to hearing about these fatal accidents in Tesla vehicles. Hasn't hurt their bottom line of sales though. When Toyota had major issues with their cars that made news it really hurt their bottom line. If fatalities aren't hurting Tesla's financials then I would say there weren't enough fatalities to kill off their business, not that I'm saying there should be more, I'm just making a point.
 
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