I have been reading this thread for what seems like three years now.
*I* think, you can't reference old release trends anymore. Apple is not going to follow history as was under Jobs.
*I* think because of criticism the new management is undergoing (both from a ingenuity standpoint as well as Wall Street's opinion), they will release prduct as soon as possible.
*I* think they also don't want a repeat of last year's 15" Retina MBP release, which was a cluster**** with folks waiting a month or more after ordering within just a few days of release.
*I* think they want to spread product rollout as best possible to keep themselves in the news and show investors and Wall street products will keep coming. So I don't think they want to stack so much up in Q4.
*I* think they don't care too much about BTS sales or returns from a product released during this sale period. So they get a bunch of returns, the refurb store will perhaps get them 18 points instead of 35 points profit. Most may not notice or care about an update. We are sensitive to updates, John Q. Public is happy they got a new MBP. 4600 vs Iris, vs 650/670 mean noting to a majority of the buying public. Same with PCI SSD vs SATA.
*I* think they will release product whenever they are ready, former trends be damned. It's a new Apple. If it still had Jobs at the helm, we would never have seen the wildly popular iPad mini. Ego interfered with demand.
Just *my* thoughts. I have a tax free weekend coming up. I will buy whatever is available at the time. I'm sure *I* will LOVE it.