Intel new H series CPUs have already launched and they are all 14nm. But if you want to believe they’ll launch a next gen H series 2 months after they just announced their new one then good for you.
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Waiting for the 2019 MBP [Merged]
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None of 10nm chips I can see would be suitable for the MBP. i.e. No "H" class.
That will never happen for 'legal reasons' - i.e. as soon as they say they made and sold a product with a design flaw in so many words they will be up to their eyeballs in litigation cases, even form people who don't experience the problem but might. What we've had so far (vague, wooly, 'few machine' statement implying manufacturing defect not design flaw) is all that will ever be said about this. But they will make it clear in another way, either by moving away from butterfly (probably more/less a toxic marketing term for many by now) or saying redesigned from the ground up or something. Overall I expect they'll be happy to let the new design speak for itself, particularly if it is tuned to offer a decent typing experience again, and receives deserved praise...
i think the central problem with what we can call "Mac Keyboard Reform" is that Apple's plan had been to double down on flatness. What's the alternative- go back to 2012 keybaords??
I assume the reason that they have 'doubled down' on the design up to this point is because they can't simply snap their fingers and come up with a new computer. They need to buy time to actually design and test something new and better. Going back to the previous KB would have more or less meant going back to the old design in it's entirety, and admitting the butterfly design was so broken they had no choice (as they sold it as an improvement). That would have been quite a big deal. I am guessing the 16" model is basically the 2020 redesign accelerated forward a year. Could be wrong and it could be a minor hardware change to the TB models - we will see - but I think the numerous slight tweaks and repair programme were just stalling tactics until they could get this off the ground. I do fully expect if it does prove to be a significant redesign that it's going to have some sort of significantly different Keyboard that fixes the problem. Even if its a gen 4 butterfly with an upped 1mm of travel so they can increase the tolerances of components and have more room to define what is and isn't a keystroke.
I agree with Falhofnir - the 2019 15" (16") MBP is basically the result of a decision (probably taken in 2017 when they realized both that they needed to do something with the keyboard and that they were going to see repeated YetAnother Lake 14nm+++++ CPUs) to accelerate a 2020 redesign. The good news is that it's a bigger redesign than we'd otherwise have seen... Probably a new keyboard, probably a bigger screen, probably a cooling upgrade, maybe a 64 GB RAM option at the high end, maybe a screen upgrade in addition to size (10-bit? 4K?), maybe a 99 wh battery.
The bad news for 15" fans is that we're in for quite a bit of YetAnother Lake. We haven't seen a high-end mobile roadmap out of Intel in the recent spate of leaks and presentations, but the 45W mobile chips are pretty closely tied to the fate of the mainstream desktop chips, and desktop won't be going 10nm (or maybe directly to 7nm) until 2022. Meet not only Comet Lake, but Rocket Lake as well. Both are upcoming Skylake-based 14nm++++ desktop CPU families that will be released before anything on a new process. They go up to 10 cores on the high end, and they come with a new socket and new chipsets.
https://wccftech.com/intel-desktop-mainstream-hedt-cpu-roadmap-2020-leak/
All those 10nm mobile chips that are supposedly close to release? All 15w and under, a whole batch of quad-cores, with dual-core 5-7w parts mixed in. No sign of a 45w chip (or even a 28w) chip in the bunch. Oddly, there are also 10nm Xeons in the pipeline...
Every mobile Mac below the Pros is getting its 10nm CPU in the next 6 months, but only the bottom of the 13" Pro lineup, and nothing at all for the 15-16".
If I were Apple, I'd replace the 13" Pro with a larger Air/MacBook (14"?) , using the highest-power 10nm CPUs they can get, and move the 15-16" out of the ultramobile space. Let it gain half a pound into the weight range of the lighter 15"+ mobile workstations from HP and Lenovo or the 15" Razer Blade (they're well over 4 lbs, but still under 5), but put the weight into the best display they can find, cooling that lets those hot YetAnother Lakes perform, and a great keyboard. Maybe they can cram a slimline mechanical keyboard in there???
The bad news for 15" fans is that we're in for quite a bit of YetAnother Lake. We haven't seen a high-end mobile roadmap out of Intel in the recent spate of leaks and presentations, but the 45W mobile chips are pretty closely tied to the fate of the mainstream desktop chips, and desktop won't be going 10nm (or maybe directly to 7nm) until 2022. Meet not only Comet Lake, but Rocket Lake as well. Both are upcoming Skylake-based 14nm++++ desktop CPU families that will be released before anything on a new process. They go up to 10 cores on the high end, and they come with a new socket and new chipsets.
https://wccftech.com/intel-desktop-mainstream-hedt-cpu-roadmap-2020-leak/
All those 10nm mobile chips that are supposedly close to release? All 15w and under, a whole batch of quad-cores, with dual-core 5-7w parts mixed in. No sign of a 45w chip (or even a 28w) chip in the bunch. Oddly, there are also 10nm Xeons in the pipeline...
Every mobile Mac below the Pros is getting its 10nm CPU in the next 6 months, but only the bottom of the 13" Pro lineup, and nothing at all for the 15-16".
If I were Apple, I'd replace the 13" Pro with a larger Air/MacBook (14"?) , using the highest-power 10nm CPUs they can get, and move the 15-16" out of the ultramobile space. Let it gain half a pound into the weight range of the lighter 15"+ mobile workstations from HP and Lenovo or the 15" Razer Blade (they're well over 4 lbs, but still under 5), but put the weight into the best display they can find, cooling that lets those hot YetAnother Lakes perform, and a great keyboard. Maybe they can cram a slimline mechanical keyboard in there???
All good points. We are probably looking at 10nm H class chips some time in early 2020, so yes, Apple can't wait that long with a broken keyboard.
And this is smart of Intel. They are pushing 10nm in the places that they need to in order to keep up with AMD (server and low/medium TDP laptops) or ARM (small TDP "clients"). Right now there is no real competitor for the H class chips. Even desktop probably is what it is at this point. Intel has said the first move to 10nm isn't bringing performance gains vs 14nm++++, and in a desktop, the power gains of the smaller process don't really matter. So here we are. Intel has triaged the damage and has come up with what I think is an appropriate game plan.
10nm looks to be a stop gap anyway. The real prize now is 7nm. They are trying to merely catch their breath and not give away too much market share in 2020 and into 2021, at which point they probably hope to gain back their advantage by going to 7nm.
How that impacts the MacBook Pro... well, I think it means don't design your computer with too many assumptions about how 10nm, because it might only last a year or two, or 7nm, because its too far away, is going to look. Design it for today. That means a hot processor. I'm crossing my fingers Apple does it right. My 2015 is due for an upgrade and I've had the business funds written into the budget for a summer 2019 upgrade for a little while now.
Assuming intel can supply.
10nm has been "coming later this year" since 2016 for intel. The process is broken.
We'll see 10nm for the 15" MBP in early 2020 only if we're really lucky.
My best guess from looking at the recent roadmapsis that we'll see all the 10nm parts for everything in the MacBook and MacBook Air lines (15W and under) by the end of 2019.
The 10nm parts for the 13" MBP (quad-core only, higher performance 15W) will be out by early 2020, although Intel may also release a 28W 6-core chip or two in late 2019 or early 2020, which would be 14nm parts. This could keep the 13" Pro on 14nm another year.
The 45W H-series chips, though, probably face at least one more YetAnother Lake on a 14nm++ process, after the one just released and not yet available. The just-released chips are Coffee Lake Refresh, and I fully expect the desktop Comet Lake 10th Generation chiips to show up in H-series variants (those will be the 2020 release, and stubbornly 14nm++). If we're really unlucky, we'll see Rocket Lake in an H-series processor as well, a 2021 14nm++ processor (desktop users already know they have two more 14nm++(++?) generations to go on at least some chips).
Here's a useful rundown, which confirms that we're due to get Comet Lake H-series chips (so the 2020 refresh of the 15" MBP processor will also be 14nm(+++?)). Rocket Lake 2021 14nm++++ is still a mystery (is it a few economy parts? The entire desktop lineup? The entire desktop lineup plus the H-series?).
https://www.pcgamer.com/intel-cpu-roadmap-all-the-lakes-from-14nm-to-7nm/
My best guess from looking at the recent roadmapsis that we'll see all the 10nm parts for everything in the MacBook and MacBook Air lines (15W and under) by the end of 2019.
The 10nm parts for the 13" MBP (quad-core only, higher performance 15W) will be out by early 2020, although Intel may also release a 28W 6-core chip or two in late 2019 or early 2020, which would be 14nm parts. This could keep the 13" Pro on 14nm another year.
The 45W H-series chips, though, probably face at least one more YetAnother Lake on a 14nm++ process, after the one just released and not yet available. The just-released chips are Coffee Lake Refresh, and I fully expect the desktop Comet Lake 10th Generation chiips to show up in H-series variants (those will be the 2020 release, and stubbornly 14nm++). If we're really unlucky, we'll see Rocket Lake in an H-series processor as well, a 2021 14nm++ processor (desktop users already know they have two more 14nm++(++?) generations to go on at least some chips).
Here's a useful rundown, which confirms that we're due to get Comet Lake H-series chips (so the 2020 refresh of the 15" MBP processor will also be 14nm(+++?)). Rocket Lake 2021 14nm++++ is still a mystery (is it a few economy parts? The entire desktop lineup? The entire desktop lineup plus the H-series?).
https://www.pcgamer.com/intel-cpu-roadmap-all-the-lakes-from-14nm-to-7nm/
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This is disappointing but I don’t think a cpu upgrade is the most urgent thing on the mbp.
They need better cooling, more powerful dgpu, more stable keyboard and a bezel reduction with resolution improvements.
Great article - this bit caught my eye, just clarifying that the 2021 H-class cpu is not confirmed:
"Rocket Lake (RCL, 14nm++++?, 11th Gen Core?, 2021?): Another recent addition on certain roadmaps is Rocket Lake, which trots out 14nm for a seventh round. Yes, seven: BDW, SKL, KBL, CFL, CFL-R, CML, and now RCL. Rocket Lake doesn't show up on many roadmaps yet, and all sources seem to point back to Tweakersand a supposed slide leak via Dell. It's on a "commercial" roadmap so it may be a business-specific implementation of Comet Lake as opposed to a new design. I wouldn't put too much stock in its existence just yet, as releasing a new 14nm design in 2021 seems ludicrous."
If Intel cannot deliver an H-class CPU before 2021, I feel that the possibility of an ARM-powered MBP (15", not 12) rises significantly. I don't see Apple waiting around for 2 full years while they just sit on their own industry leading CPU designs (and team), not to mention their pre-reserved capacity on TSMC's stable 7nm and + fabrication. My guess is they will do a fixer-upper model this year to 'modernize' things like the bezels and fix the keyboard, then by 2021/22 they will target a full ARM transition and stop this dependancy on Intel that is harming their business.
Intel's strategy seems to be targeted to prevent that... They're getting 10nm chips out in the areas that are low-hanging fruit for the ARM transition (ultra low-power notebook chips and servers that might run a limited number of applications), while leaving the old 14nm process in places where changing architectures is more of a pain. Move the big MBP to ARM, and you are facing some real problems with creaky old code (I'm looking at you, Adobe) that isn't going to move over with just a recompile.
The MacBooks and Airs tend to run (all easily moved to ARM):
A bunch of Apple applications (already exist on ARM, because they have largely common code bases with iOS)
Microsoft Office (the Mac version is larger than the Windows version because it incorporates pieces of Windows to keep the core Office code closely related; but iOS Office, Windows Office and Windows itself all already exist on ARM - all the pieces are there).
Small applications from Mac-specific developers (mostly have iOS versions; others are written using very good Apple coding practices - they'll recompile).
Chrome and Firefox (both exist on iOS, have very cross-platform code bases).
On the more powerful MBPs, all of these things are still common, but add (much harder to deal with):
Final Cut Pro, Logic Pro, etc. (we hope Apple's been following their own guidelines - if so, they'll recompile)
Various non-Adobe photo/video editing applications (all over the place - some launched on iOS first, while others don't run on any non-Intel architecture right now. Some are recent and follow all Apple guidelines, while others (Capture One) have been updated for decades and contain just about every kind of legacy code)
Adobe Creative Suite (It's huge, it's full of fusty old legacy code, and it famously doesn't like to move architectures).
Parallels, VMWare, BootCamp (quite simply can't work on ARM assuming the target is x86 Windows, and ARM Windows doesn't do you any good, because the big applications people want to run don't work under ARM Windows).
The MacBooks and Airs tend to run (all easily moved to ARM):
A bunch of Apple applications (already exist on ARM, because they have largely common code bases with iOS)
Microsoft Office (the Mac version is larger than the Windows version because it incorporates pieces of Windows to keep the core Office code closely related; but iOS Office, Windows Office and Windows itself all already exist on ARM - all the pieces are there).
Small applications from Mac-specific developers (mostly have iOS versions; others are written using very good Apple coding practices - they'll recompile).
Chrome and Firefox (both exist on iOS, have very cross-platform code bases).
On the more powerful MBPs, all of these things are still common, but add (much harder to deal with):
Final Cut Pro, Logic Pro, etc. (we hope Apple's been following their own guidelines - if so, they'll recompile)
Various non-Adobe photo/video editing applications (all over the place - some launched on iOS first, while others don't run on any non-Intel architecture right now. Some are recent and follow all Apple guidelines, while others (Capture One) have been updated for decades and contain just about every kind of legacy code)
Adobe Creative Suite (It's huge, it's full of fusty old legacy code, and it famously doesn't like to move architectures).
Parallels, VMWare, BootCamp (quite simply can't work on ARM assuming the target is x86 Windows, and ARM Windows doesn't do you any good, because the big applications people want to run don't work under ARM Windows).
I bet there are also huge numbers of customers running Photoshop, FCP, etc on Airs old and new.
Idealized market-segmentation/upselling of hardware only exists in Apple's dreams, so they can't really shrug and say that someone is trying to use their future laptop wrong because it lacks "Pro" in the name. It's kinda the eternal hallmark of the Personal Computer (as opposed to small/cheap appliance-like gadgets) that they are truly general purpose.
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I wouldn't be at all surprised to see ultramobile ARM Macs be restricted to the Mac App Store only. Keep people from running Photoshop on them by making Photoshop unavailable on them...
This does imply a long-term future for Intel Macs (they aren't going to force all Macs to the App Store only).
It solves the binary problem - the App Store is smart enough to send the right binary to whatever's connected to it. Apple could very easily require everyone submitting to the Mac App Store to submit both Intel and ARM binaries (which has the added side effect that a lot of formerly Mac apps may start showing up on iPad as well).
This does imply a long-term future for Intel Macs (they aren't going to force all Macs to the App Store only).
It solves the binary problem - the App Store is smart enough to send the right binary to whatever's connected to it. Apple could very easily require everyone submitting to the Mac App Store to submit both Intel and ARM binaries (which has the added side effect that a lot of formerly Mac apps may start showing up on iPad as well).
Never gonna happen. Apple will milk the cow as long as they can. And honestly, who could blame them?
MBP 15" starts at 256GB. User can't upgrade it. Not even Apple.
2399$ in US. Before taxes. And every mac is way cheaper in US then in any other country in the world.
Apple charges 600$ additional for 1TB of storage. Of course, they keep those tiny 256GB.
Samsung 970 EVO 1TB is 250$. Often you can buy it for as low as 150$ on amazon (action sales). Same speed as drives in MBP.
Apple purchases the same storage for way less then we could even dream. And yet, instead of dropping prices since 2012 (first rMBP) for SSD/nvme storage, Apple actually increased the price for upgrades.
So I don't get it, what was ditched? Sure, there is no 128GB starting touchbar MBP. But is 256GB enough for a 'PRO' device? Especially since you're stuck with what ever storage capacity was built in from the start?
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I think they're going to kill that machine. I wouldn't buy it unless you get a fantastic deal on it. I mean, a new 13 inch TB, sure, they'll update that one, but that non-TB MacBook Pro was created specifically for Apple's MacBook Air customers---they specifically said that when they announced it in 2016. Then I guess they decided to update the Air and now the machine you're referring to is sort of in limbo.
It's not a bad machine, but you're playing Russian Roulette with that keyboard and that processor is a little dated.
On the other hand, you're getting a fantastic screen with DCI-P3, 500 nits of brightness, etc.
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If they release it and say "4th generation ," I'll laugh. You can't just keep putting bandaids on it. Just slide the Magic Keyboard 2 in there and leave the rest the same.
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This, but I don't think Apple would give in excess of 256 standard.
I'm guessing a one-level jump on most machines (possibly except for the poor nTB models, which may be left to wither untouched). The $1799 13" Touch Bar and $2399 15" configurations that start at 256 GB should get 512 GB. I'm not sure what they'll do with the $1999 13" model - its only upgrade over the $1799 model is the SSD, and a 13" model with 1 TB standard just doesn't feel right. Maybe the upgraded 13" TB will (finally) come standard with 16 GB of RAM (and a processor upgrade over the $1799 model)?
I suspect the upper-end stock 15" configuration (which now has 512 GB standard) may soon have 1 TB instead., and I also suspect it may get 32 GB of RAM as a stock item. I hope for 64 GB of RAM as an option on some 15" models...
I suspect the upper-end stock 15" configuration (which now has 512 GB standard) may soon have 1 TB instead., and I also suspect it may get 32 GB of RAM as a stock item. I hope for 64 GB of RAM as an option on some 15" models...
The CPU is the thing I’m least concerned about. It’s the T2, audio, and keyboard where I’ll be looking for improvement. I don’t need to upgrade for performance reasons, but if I don’t upgrade I’ll have to replace the battery next year. That’s not looking like a bad option right now.
They would have to put a hell of an asterisk on that though:
"Restricted to App Store only*
* BTW, half the stuff on here is abandonware and will never get an ARM binary ever."
Good news for everybody waiting: 9to5mac author Guilherme Rambo who has shared a lot of inside knowledge and leaks about watchOS 6, iOS 13 and macOS 10.15 over the last couple weeks claims he believes a new MacBook Pro will be coming soon and with a redesigned keyboard (source).
He just says yes to the question, also how long is soon? personally i'd like to see one at WWDC. Announcing the Mac Pro, Pro display and the new Macbook Pro with a new redesign, would be a great fit for WWDC, Pro machines for a Pro audience. However WWDC is mainly about software, altho they do sometimes announce hardware (see WWDC 2017).