The 3nm chip not boasting huge battery life for the iPhone 15 makes me pessimistic we'll see a big jump in battery life for these M3 MBPs. I hope I'm wrong, but Apple seems to be favoring performance lately.
So the really strange thing is, it really didn't feature much performance either. The single core performance isn't far from the A16 (really even the A14) frankly and the Multicore performance isn't much higher either. GPU performance seems to have only improved in that it scaled up congruent to the extra core, that's hardly earth shattering. The main improvements we got are some AI speed improvements (hard to measure) and RT improvement (hardly super useful for a phone although I imagine those cores also help AI tasks and make more of a difference in macOS). All in all the A17 was super confusing. That said we all thought it's a phone the software is what's super behind not the hardware.
The issue is then do we get BETTER performance out of the M3s than we saw in A17pro or not. The M2 Ultra was not the competitive experience we hoped for against AMD. It failed to catch NVIDA or AMD gpu performance even with 2 M2 Maxes, and it is slower or about the same as the 13900k and the 7950x. The problem is those CPUs PLUS the highest end gpus (built into a system) are closer in price to the M2 Max studio not the M2 Ultra (A 7950x+7900xtx w/32gb of ram and 6tb is under 3k). Even worse, the Threadripper, Epyc, Xenon level chips, the kind normally seen in a Mac Pro, leave the M2 Ultra FAR in the dust. The last gen RTX 3090 is STILL ahead of the M2 Ultra and 4090 is on another planet. the only areas M2 Ultra competes well in would be the areas where apple has a special video encoder and overall video editing. Don't get me wrong the Mac Studio is still a beast and has perf/watt advantages but AMD is closing gaps there while exceeding apple in raw performance and apple needs show us that it has DESKTOP class chips and that it can compete at the high end. Jozwiak saying Nvidia has a good product makes me think apple may not want to compete at the high end but rather focus on perf/watt (for it's best selling Mac the MacBooks) and special encoders.
I will say that in terms of overall experience the MacBooks remain in a league of their own. However for portable (though not quite on the go) raw performance it's different story. Whereas the M1 Max launched highly competitive CPU performance with Solid GPU productivity performance (albeit middling overall gpu performance that was much closer to the low/mid range Nvidia laptop gpu), the M2Pro/Max line launched fairly uncompetitive products in RAW performance. Within months of their launch AMD had a CPU on the market that was in striking distance of the M2 Ultra, on a laptop. SURE you needed be constantly plugged in but depending on workflow that may not matter.
I still overall think we will be happy with the M3 Pro and Max as an overall experience but I am concerned stagnation. Especially as Qualcomm appears to be improving its products rapidly closing in on M-series chips. The shock of all shocks is the Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 destined for the S24 Ultra, is faster than the A17 pro in all but single core performance. Even takes lead in Ray tracing and this is still just from Qualcomm reference, Samsung and others often have better cooling and optimization/overclocking. Qualcomm's new laptop chip also seems to be competitive and the benefit to the wider market is apple is still perceived as niche and expensive to a lot of people and frankly if Windows on Arm improves like they say it will have M - series battery life but also be able to game.
All this wall of text to really say the M3 Pro and M3 Max will give us the best indication of apple's ability to lead in this segment. I won't say make or break but if they have another M2 level launch, I'm going to have a lot of tough questions to ask about how I want to outfit going forward, doubling down on the Mac ecosystem as I'm currently planning or gradually transitioning back toe PC Windows/Linux platforms where I can expect to benefit from AMD/Intel/Nvidia AND Qualcomm's more rapid advancements while maintaining broad compatibility with software.