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[WW] Bloodlust GAME OVER - WEREWOLVES WIN
- Thread starter ravenvii
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
I don't want to make a hasty decision, so I decided to go back to the previous games to calculate the odds that he also isn't a WW this game... the odds listed below are the starting odds that he was not a WW or Vampire or Goth in the game:
Game 1: 7/9
Game 2: 18/20
Game 3: 15/19 (first game with Vampire/Goth)
Game 4: 15/20 (three WW started the game)
Game 5: 15/20 (Vamp + Goth + Goth + A-WW + K-WW)
Therefore the collective odds of chrmjenkins not being a bad guy again are:
7/9 x 18/20 x 15/19 x 15/20 x 15/20 = 0.3108 or 31.08%
The odds that he was a non-baddie before AND he IS a baddie this game are:
7/9 x 18/20 x 15/19 x 15/20 x 5/20 = 0.1036 or 10.36%
As you can see, the odds of him not being a bad character again are actually not "extremely unlikely" and the odds of him actually being a bad character in this game is about 1/3 of his chances of being a good character this game.
Given his skill at this game, the odds of him not being a baddie again, and that he is 3 times more likely to be a good guy versus a bad guy this game... I don't see any compelling enough arguments being made to lynch chrmjenkins at the expense of what he could bring to the villagers. He does not get my vote, at least just yet.
I am however interested in just why you are pushing for chrmjenkins as much as you are at this point in the game.
If anyone has done things more obvious to paint themselves as a bad guy that SilentPanda, I'd be hard pressed to name him or her. That being said, I don't think he is a baddie... for now, I'm taking him at his word and hope that he was trying to get the Vamp/Goths to waste a scan on him.
I'd like to hear more before offering my vote, because at this point I haven't heard enough to make even close to a final decision.
Previous games do not factor into this game at all as to who could be what. His odds are just as good as anybody else... period.
However knowing what I know... the odds of me being a plain ol' villager... 100%.
However knowing what I know... the odds of me being a plain ol' villager... 100%.
Was going to post that too, so thanks.
Since each game is an independent event, the odds of anyone in this game being a non-baddie is the same: 15/20.
I just wanted to point out that even if you don't consider each game statistically independent from each other, the odds of chrmjenkins being a non-baddie are not "extremely unlikely" or "extremely small" as KMM pointed out.
<mathnerd>
They are not correlative or causative, but the math that stonyc posted was correct. Just because two events are independent doesn't mean you can't factor in the chances of them all happening just the way they did.
</mathnerd>
Current votes:
SilentPanda: 2 (appleguy123, ucfgrad93)
chrmjenkins: 2 (King Mook Mook, Rodimus Prime)
Also note that I've added a rule to the misc. in the original post regarding disclosure of confidential communication. It hasn't happened yet in this game, but it has in the other game, and I agree that it sets a bad precedent, so I'm setting the record straight for this strain of the game.
SilentPanda: 2 (appleguy123, ucfgrad93)
chrmjenkins: 2 (King Mook Mook, Rodimus Prime)
Also note that I've added a rule to the misc. in the original post regarding disclosure of confidential communication. It hasn't happened yet in this game, but it has in the other game, and I agree that it sets a bad precedent, so I'm setting the record straight for this strain of the game.
is it just me or does it seems way to many players try to avoid voting as long as possible so they can not some how be targeted later. I hate how we can go over 24 hours and not even be close to a majority because so many people will not vote.
I know! It's not like we're going to target you only because you voted in a timely matter. If I didn't have anymore evidence, I'd be more likely to vote for you because you weren't voting. Especially since it'd almost be too obvious for a WW to actually vote first because he'd immediately be targeted.
Voting randomly and just seeming like you want to take a villager out is more suspicious than voting when it is time to.
makes me tempted to say 24 hour time limit on voting. Failing to reach majority means night time. Gives the WW/Vamps free kills
I'd vote but I really don't have an inkling about anybody. -aggie- was my go-to vote person but the WW's messed that up for me.
For the time being I'll vote for chrmjenkins. I don't care so much if I die but I know I'm a villager... so better I live than an unknown... for me anyway... not convincing at all but that's about all I got. I still don't really want to vote for him just because I like his posts...
For the time being I'll vote for chrmjenkins. I don't care so much if I die but I know I'm a villager... so better I live than an unknown... for me anyway... not convincing at all but that's about all I got. I still don't really want to vote for him just because I like his posts...
There needs to be something done about it, because it’s getting old with all the waiting and sitting around. Maybe if you miss voting twice over a 24 hour period, you’re out of the game. Anyway, it needs to be discussed for both the simple and the complex game.
@SP: Obviously you don’t like my posts then.
or, some people had a great family weekend at the beach and didn't think too much about life (and death) in the olde village.
i know i know i should get my priorities straight
.anyways, i think the Ww just rode aggie vs silentpanda and myself debate to create suspects. way too risky as a strategy for panda (and I) to be a wolf so openly. could work in the short run but not viable for the end game.
panda remains on top of my list as a vamp (because of the sparkle thingy, and he became open about it only after nathan noticed). same for chrmjenkins because of the 'overlord spiel routine'. not much evidence either way, i know.
Ww is so far even tougher, though i did notice that apple123 was the only one not getting involved in taking a decision last time, just looking on from the outside (a wolfish trait according to the late former ww aggie). and was the first to point out pandas 'call' for poor aggie's demise.
as far as probabilties, stonyc would be correct if he was calculating chrmjenkins chance of being a good guy for 5 games before game 1.
as of now that chance is:
1x1x1x1x(12/17)
-aggie- said:
Jav rule! The -aggie- must abide!
Your posts are fine. I just like to pick on you and inject some chaos into the game.
Yes, perhaps "extremely unlikely" was a bad choice of words, I grant you that, but still, isn't his chance of being a bad guy this game higher then most of ours as we have (at least I have) been a bad guy at least once in the other games, then chrmjenkins who has, in his own admission, not ever been a baddie? I am also 100% mathematically sure that that is true: and that was not the basis for my evidence, rather an observation, I think the other, more conclusive evidence is far more reliable.
And still, 10% aren't bad odds when combined with the other evidence. In a one in ten shot is probably much better then we have at lynching anyone else!
or, some people had a great family weekend at the beach and didn't think too much about life (and death) in the olde village.
i know i know i should get my priorities straight
anyways, i think the Ww just rode aggie vs silentpanda and myself debate to create suspects. way too risky as a strategy for panda (and I) to be a wolf so openly. could work in the short run but not viable for the end game.
panda remains on top of my list as a vamp (because of the sparkle thingy, and he became open about it only after nathan noticed). same for chrmjenkins because of the 'overlord spiel routine'. not much evidence either way, i know.
Ww is so far even tougher, though i did notice that apple123 was the only one not getting involved in taking a decision last time, just looking on from the outside (a wolfish trait according to the late former ww aggie). and was the first to point out pandas 'call' for poor aggie's demise.
as far as probabilties, stonyc would be correct if he was calculating chrmjenkins chance of being a good guy for 5 games before game 1.
as of now that chance is:
1x1x1x1x(12/17)
I didn't take part in the last round because there was absolutely no logic in it, and we ended up killing a villager. If Chris had any solid logic (beside 'OMG this person's vote wasn't random') I would have helped the logic train ride smoothly into lynching a more desirable choice, but there was no such logical choice; so rather than move toward the condemnation of an innocent person, I remained silent.
no.
just like the chance of getting another 'heads' after you just got it 100 times in a row is still 50%.
they are independent events.
Okay peeps, truth time. I'm the Seer.
Happy now? I was trying to subtly give you guys a hint! Oh well, no one listens to me!
Okay, so last night I scanned chrmjenkins (not a "waste" as others described it):
He is the Goth. That is for sure.
He may even a Vampire now!
So I suggest that you vote for him henceforth!
King Mook Mook
On the one hand, I can see why the wolves would eliminate -aggie-. His experience as a WW is second to none, and he was offering a lot of insight. On the other hand, because -aggie- is so skilled as a wolf, they've removed a perpetual suspect from our list.
All that being said, I don't know if SilentPanda is necessarily acting any different than he has in previous games. I'm still unsure if I buy philbeeney's explanation for voting for me. Still, it doesn't make much sense to suspect him alone for that given it's not smart for a baddie to stick his neck out like that.
I'm not perturbed by King Mook Mook's accusation and incorrect math because a lot of people share that misunderstanding about probability.
When an event is independent, that means that previous occurrences cannot and do not influence future ones. For them to not to be independent, that would have to mean ravenvii was somehow using our previous rules as ways to prevent us from having certain roles in future games. If ravenvii's wasn't actively influencing it, it would mean that there is some cosmic force that knows our roles in previous games and somehow changes the probability of numbers being churned out by random.org.
All that being said, I don't know if SilentPanda is necessarily acting any different than he has in previous games. I'm still unsure if I buy philbeeney's explanation for voting for me. Still, it doesn't make much sense to suspect him alone for that given it's not smart for a baddie to stick his neck out like that.
I'm not perturbed by King Mook Mook's accusation and incorrect math because a lot of people share that misunderstanding about probability.
When an event is independent, that means that previous occurrences cannot and do not influence future ones. For them to not to be independent, that would have to mean ravenvii was somehow using our previous rules as ways to prevent us from having certain roles in future games. If ravenvii's wasn't actively influencing it, it would mean that there is some cosmic force that knows our roles in previous games and somehow changes the probability of numbers being churned out by random.org.
Okay peeps, truth time. I'm the Seer.
Happy now? I was trying to subtly give you guys a hint! Oh well, no one listens to me!
Okay, so last night I scanned chrmjenkins (not a "waste" as others described it):
He is the Goth. That is for sure.
He may even a Vampire now!
So I suggest that you vote for him henceforth!
King Mook Mook
You'd give yourself up after a single vote when 2 others have 2 votes ahead of you? Nobody was even gunning for you...
all honestly I will be saying we will need to take out king either in a lynching soon or the WW will.
Reason for this is because infection can really screw us over.
Okay peeps, truth time. I'm the Seer.
Happy now? I was trying to subtly give you guys a hint! Oh well, no one listens to me!
Okay, so last night I scanned chrmjenkins (not a "waste" as others described it):
He is the Goth. That is for sure.
He may even a Vampire now!
So I suggest that you vote for him henceforth!
King Mook Mook
You shouldn't have done that! Assuming that you actually are the seer, we have to take out Chris before he is scanned, and have to take you out asap or the werewolves will infect you and we'll be screwed again.