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[WW] Bloodlust GAME OVER - WEREWOLVES WIN

I have to admit, even though it does seem slightly obvious, stonyc does have some good points. I don't really suspect him because he's behaving exactly as he has as a villager that was about to get lynched. Plus, he's putting forth more effort than I notice most wolves tend to. With regard to stonyc's theory about abijnk - It could even be that if the wolves are very clever they've making a semi-obvious move/infection because, well, people may think it's too obvious. Or we could have wolves that aren't so clever and didn't think of it that way... or maybe we've just given them the idea and they haven't done any recruiting yet. ARG! The werewolf game! :D

I'm not sure I want to vote for abijnk though because if she is innocent she's quite a loss to the village. Of course I know she can be scary as hell as a wolf too. The reasonless vote for jav piqued my suspicions but she's done that as a villager before as well, if I recall correctly.

I'm not against changing my vote because to be honest I don't have that solid of a reason for suspecting renewed just yet - only that he piqued my suspicions based on voting for me without much cause, but we seem to have developed a mutual habit that way.
More posts please! :p
 
I see I racked up some votes quite fast. Truth be told, I won't spend the same amount of time like last time to defend myself. I have nothing to hide, KMM can even scan me for all I care...

As per the block votes against me, I agree with stonyc. In one hour I gathered 3 block votes. That has to be a record. I also won't be surprised that a WW voted there.

However, I also consider the possibility of those votes being villager block voting as well, nothing is impossible.

Originally posted by abijnk

Joke's on you dude, because, like KMM said I am a villager, and no, I have not been infected.
...
Click to expand...

That statement can be true as a donut having 2 holes in it. It is not that I don't trust you. It's the fact that you are a villager but now, that KMM outed you as such, makes you a ripe present for Infection. That drops your reliability by 40%.

Originally posted by NathanMuir

I didn't realize stonyc and jav had such a chummy relationship.

And KMM, don't waste a scan on me tonight, I didn't realize that not posting mathematical formulas for who the wolf might be would paint a target on my back.
Click to expand...

I don't have a "chummy" relationship. In fact, that could only be said, if and only if, that person were -aggie-. No offense to anyone. Also, what is with you asking not to be scanned? That screams "I'm a wolf/vampire" loudest in my ears.

Originally posted by philbeeney

As for anything said by jav6454, it should be taken with a two fingered motion of sodium chloride.
Click to expand...

Pure and simple. I am trying to find out the best way to see who the wolves are. If my argument doesn't suit you fine by me. If you want to lynch me, fine by me.
 
Melrose said:
I disagree. They could infect the second-to-last person to be scanned, and we'd be none the wiser. The bottom line is, if they avoid infecting the most prominent options we have no clue who it is, and by the time we've whittled away at our list of positives we've lost the game.

Given that strategy like this is discussed all the time in every game we've played, and yet nothing is ever done about it, they can infect even the most likely candidate and we'd still lynch the wrong people.

I still say stonyc. To me, all his blathering is ringing a little too hollow.
Click to expand...

Fair point. But it doesn't change the fact that I am not infected.

I will join you in your vote for stonyc.
 
abijnk said:
Joke's on you dude, because, like KMM said I am a villager, and no, I have not been infected.
Click to expand...
That remains to be seen.

abijnk said:
It would be incredibly stupid for them to infect me because it would be too obvious. As soon as KMM said he scanned me I had a HUGE target painted on my back (one which, I may point out, you are currently shooting at). I would go down way too quickly and would be of no help at all. Now that KMM has been resurrected the werewolves are probably celebrating, because it means we will not trust him and it means that they now have a narrowed down pool from which to select someone to infect. The right person to infect would be someone KMM has not claimed to have scanned and not KMM himself. That would fly completely under the radar and work in their best favor.
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No, it would not be incredibly stupid for them to infect you: you're an obvious target, we expect the WW to infect you, thus they won't infect you, therefore you once again make an attractive target.

We agree that KMM likely hasn't been infected, he's likely dead tomorrow night.

The fact remains however that there was a 3-block vote for Jav6454 in the space of a single hour. I can't exclude the probability that two of those votes are from villagers. However, your vote stuck out the most because you attached no explanation to your vote. I am sticking to my reasoning that you were trying to slide in your vote and hoped that no one called you out on it.

Melrose I find interesting because I have confronted him with evidence that I am not "chattier" than usual and still continued to vote for me. So be it.

I think there is at least one WW among these three:
abjink
Melrose
philbeeney

I'm prepared to let Ravenvii judge me, do what you will.
 
i think that we have reached a point of subtlety in these games, that every 'villager move' and every 'werewolf move' can be taken at face value, its opposite or the opposite of the opposite (and so on).

so almost any single argument can be turned on its head. clarity will (maybe :)) eventually come from the accumulation of evidence.

that said, i don't see a tactical advantge in turning abjnk this early, with the risk of possibly wasting the infection.
having one extra vote right now doesn't seem to be worth it (at least it wouldn't be to me).
KMM has a slightly higher immediate return value as an infectee, because of the seer ability.
my opinion is that the wolves will wait as long as possible to infect, and eventually do it to one of the obvious villagers (don't want to use it on the vamp or on the hunter), unless it's clear that alpha will be lynched, in which case they'll infect the best candidate available then
 
Couple of notes:

- abjink has yet to give a reason for voting for Jav6454. I don't care if the reason is that she doesn't like him, or she doesn't like the cut of his jib. In a block of three votes, abjink was the ONLY one who didn't even offer a weak explanation... or even a half-hearted one. In a game where we have to trust others and decide who is to live and who is to die, the least that we should be able to expect from others is a reason... made up, legitimate, half-hearted or otherwise. To not even give an explanation for why you are voting to end someone's (game) life, that seems evasive to me... at the least, like you don't care (and we all know that not to be the case).

- KMM, in my opinion offers the least return on infection. Because he is an obvious choice for infection, he is already suspect in the eyes of the Villagers and thus using an infection on him is likely going to waste. His power, if used against the Villagers is too great, and the risk of keeping him uninfected to use his powers on the WW is also too great. His best value to the WW is as he was when lynched: dead. I think he is dead tomorrow night (since the assumption is that the WW Hunter will protect him tonight). One scan is not likely to uncover a WW or Vamp, therefore leaving him alive for one more night is an acceptable risk.

I have nothing to hide. By being this "chatty" I am risking lynching if I were a WW or Vamp/Goth. If I were a WW, wouldn't that be incredibly stupid of me? So ask yourselves this: After everything I've posted recently, why is it that most of the responses have bordered on personal attacks or deflection?

EDIT:
- Regarding the timing of infection. There are arguments to both infecting early and late. Late allows you to get closer to a voting majority, but it also narrows the field of possible targets (and as a consequence allows the Villagers a higher probability of surmising that someone has been infected). Infecting early increases the random chance that the Seer and the Villagers identify a WW because there is now one more to choose from. However, that increase is incremental and not exponential so the risk assumed by infecting early is not appreciably dangerous to the WW. Infecting early has also not been used (to my knowledge) in any game so far...

I'm doing some readings on complex adaptive systems for class and one of the simulations discussed involved a prisoner's dilemma game. A heterogeneic pool of strategies both simple and complex were used against each other. In short, early in the simulation simple strategies worked well, however when complex strategies were introduced the complex strategies began to win, until simple strategies were re-used and fooled the complex strategies. The point being, don't rule out the "obvious" strategy, once a system of expectations has been built up, reverting back to simpler models can be just as effective as more complex ones.
 
i think think this is updated now:

Jav6454: 6 (NathanMuir, appleguy123, philbeeney, ucfgrad93, Mexbearpig, Rodimus Prime)
Abijnk: 2 (willbro, stonyc)
Stonyc: 2 (melrose, abjnk)
Mexbearpig: 1 (Don’t panic)
Appleguy123: 1 (jav6454)
iBlue: 1 (renewed)
Renewed: 1 (iBlue)

Majority vote is 9

Left to vote:
Mscriv
King Mook Mook
 
stonyc said:
Melrose I find interesting because I have confronted him with evidence that I am not "chattier" than usual and still continued to vote for me. So be it.

I think there is at least one WW among these three:
abjink
Melrose
philbeeney
Click to expand...

These huge blocks of lorem ipsum you keep posting are indeed well out of character for our past games. Fair points or not, it's still out of character for you - and therefore suspicious.

In regard to your short list of suspects there, the wordiness isn't working so now you come right out and point fingers at the people who've questioned your very wordiness? Extra odd.
 
Since everyone is tossing around names of probable wolves, here is my list.

abijnk
Rodimus Prime

Both of them work so flawlessly. They kept the votes up against me. Since abijnk was questioned of her vote against me, we see a subtle change in the voting scheme. She votes for someone else, in this case for stonyc who has been long attacking her.

Rodimus brings up a very LAME, excuse and switches his vote over to me. That keeps the vote count on 6 votes. That attitude is very fishy. Why not let KMM scan me and get your doubts settled?

You also know what, that vote change occurred over the period of ONE MINUTE. That's way to coordinated. I am betting abijnk is pulling one from our old wolf manual, where she tries to play off suspicions against her by doing something that "helps" and thus seem less likely a wolf.
 
jav6454 said:
Since everyone is tossing around names of probable wolves, here is my list.

abijnk
Rodimus Prime

Both of them work so flawlessly. They kept the votes up against me. Since abijnk was questioned of her vote against me, we see a subtle change in the voting scheme. She votes for someone else, in this case for stonyc who has been long attacking her.

Rodimus brings up a very LAME, excuse and switches his vote over to me. That keeps the vote count on 6 votes. That attitude is very fishy. Why not let KMM scan me and get your doubts settled?

You also know what, that vote change occurred over the period of ONE MINUTE. That's way to coordinated. I am betting abijnk is pulling one from our old wolf manual, where she tries to play off suspicions against her by doing something that "helps" and thus seem less likely a wolf.
Click to expand...

I'm going to be candid. If you see your name, don't be offended.

I agree Abbie is a clever player, but I don't think she's that clever (no offense Abbie). I wouldn't describe Rodimus as very smooth (no offense Rodimus), but he is influential. His often invalid points always convince a few people to tag along. Ergo, he may be dangerous, but I doubt it. The one game he was a werewolf he was downright friendly and groveling... something he isn't now.

The plain fact of the matter is that we're all getting better as we take turns playing wolves. We've played long enough that, with the exception of a few, we're getting pretty cagey about it.

:)
 
Melrose said:
I'm going to be candid. If you see your name, don't be offended.

I agree Abbie is a clever player, but I don't think she's that clever (no offense Abbie). I wouldn't describe Rodimus as very smooth (no offense Rodimus), but he is influential. His often invalid points always convince a few people to tag along. Ergo, he may be dangerous, but I doubt it. The one game he was a werewolf he was downright friendly and groveling... something he isn't now.

:)
Click to expand...

Recall, I did work with them in Part 3 of this game
 
jav6454 said:
Recall, I did work with them in Part 3 of this game
Click to expand...

Ah. Vox experior I see. I guess that adds a bit of weight your opinion then.

...unless you're just being a wolf again and trying to toss us off the scent. :p
 
jav6454 said:
Since everyone is tossing around names of probable wolves, here is my list.

abijnk
Rodimus Prime

Both of them work so flawlessly. They kept the votes up against me. Since abijnk was questioned of her vote against me, we see a subtle change in the voting scheme. She votes for someone else, in this case for stonyc who has been long attacking her.

Rodimus brings up a very LAME, excuse and switches his vote over to me. That keeps the vote count on 6 votes. That attitude is very fishy. Why not let KMM scan me and get your doubts settled?

You also know what, that vote change occurred over the period of ONE MINUTE. That's way to coordinated. I am betting abijnk is pulling one from our old wolf manual, where she tries to play off suspicions against her by doing something that "helps" and thus seem less likely a wolf.
Click to expand...

for her to be a WW, either abjnk was just infected (after KMM resurrection and her clearing) or she is an original wolf, and KMM was infected as soon as he was resurrected, and instructed to clear her name.
i think the second situation would have been an unnecessary risk, because she knows that it will make her a permanent suspect. can't rule it out, but i don't think that is what happened (and if it is i think they are eventually doomed)
it's possible that the she was just infected, but again, i don't see the urgency on the wolves side to rush and get the third wolf so early, and when no wolf is close to be lynched (accepting your claim you are not one)

edit: one more thing, if you suspect abjnk and rodimus, why are you voting for appleguy123? vamp? 3rd wolf? based on?
 
I believe that jav6454 is innocent. I'm sticking with my vote for abijnk.
 
abijnk said:
By the way, King Mook Mook, you may feel free to elaborate.
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As you wish abijnk!

Abijnk is, in fact, the Vampire Hunter: I didn't wish to give it away at the beginning, because I thought that it might be a bit rude to do that if they didn't want it, but as you ask, there you go!

However, that does not mean that Abijnk is immune from Werewolf Infection, so still could be infected (I don't think Abijnk is, but just saying!)

I got to scan the night before I was cruelly lynched :)p) and ravenvii gave me the scan, but I didn't have time to post it due to my quick death!

This is an interesting voting round, I must say! For Jav6454, he seems to always be this talkative, and doesn't seem that different this game from others.

At this point, the best evidence I have seen is from Melrose:

Melrose said:
I disagree. They could infect the second-to-last person to be scanned, and we'd be none the wiser. The bottom line is, if they avoid infecting the most prominent options we have no clue who it is, and by the time we've whittled away at our list of positives we've lost the game.

Given that strategy like this is discussed all the time in every game we've played, and yet nothing is ever done about it, they can infect even the most likely candidate and we'd still lynch the wrong people.

I still say stonyc. To me, all his blathering is ringing a little too hollow.
Click to expand...

So, as such, I think I'll be voting stonyc, but I can still be convinced!

P.S. I love everyone saying my name so much, it's so heartwarming! I feel so special! :p
 
^ Oooh, *Buffy-five*, abijnk!

I swear if you're lying to us though, Mook, I'm never forgiving you! :p


I just don't get a strong baddie vibe from stonyc and while some of his non-abijnk based theories theories make sense I think the resentment between him and abijnk is clouding his (and maybe her) judgement. Where is the love? :D

I have to admit I am slightly tempted to change my "Why the frick are you voting for me?" vote for renewed to jav because game drag is, well, a drag. Though I'm unconvinced about the jav badness so I don't know if I can do that in good conscience. Bit tired of baddie-wins so I don't want to lynch willy-nilly. So hey, here's talking this out a little. Though I do have another reason for suspecting renewed, BTW. It's from post 78 in the WW live thread. It makes me think he's thought that through and could be doing the opposite in this game, which could explain his vote for me. (so it's not a total throwaway vote but I am considering changing it.)


http://upc.*************/uploads/smilies/thinkin.gif
 
Nope, he's not lying, and I'm hoping that by being "out" and having the wolves know I have a lot of scrutiny on me that I can avoid infection. I am no threat to them killing wise, and I maintain that I would not be a good choice for infection.

That said, if anyone has any theories as to who the vampire or goth might be, I do have an insta-kill to use before I am eaten or lynched.
 
i waited to post this until i knew abjnk was online, so she can react quickly.

honestly i don't think this was a good idea on King Mook Mook's part (no offense, KMM).
I think this actually increases the chance of the WW targeting abjnk as she is now an even better candidate for infection. One who can insta-kill the WWhunter or the vampire and protect the other two wolves (alternatively) from the vampire/goth, should they get activated.

Abjnk, I am sorry. As it should be obvious from the last couple of pages, I didn't think you were a WW, and I think that you probably still are not one, but the vampire hunter is in my view the perfect weapon in the hands of the wolves, even if for a short time (much, much more than the seer).

i think the best course of action would be for you to use the insta-kill immediately, on whoever you find most suspicious (and declare the victim beforehand). it doesn't have to be the vamp/goth: it can also be a wolf. Yes, the attack would fail, but we would know who the wolf is and can immediately lynch him (i would certainly switch my vote). Getting rid of the insta-kill would also decrease your chance of becoming infected, if you are not already. (as does having a few lynch-votes against you, ironically).

i understand that the chances of insta-killing an innocent villager are high, but so are they when we more or less randomly lynch the next one.

it's your call abbie, it's a bad position but you should act swiftly


updated votes

Jav6454: 6 (NathanMuir, appleguy123, philbeeney, ucfgrad93, Mexbearpig, Rodimus Prime)
Stonyc: 3 (melrose, abjnk, King Mook Mook)
Abijnk: 2 (willbro, Don't panic)
Rodimus Prime: 1 (jav6454)
iBlue: 1 (renewed)
Renewed: 1 (iBlue)
Philbeeney: 1 (Stonyc)

edit: stonyc changed from abjnk to philbeeney
 
Melrose said:
These huge blocks of lorem ipsum you keep posting are indeed well out of character for our past games. Fair points or not, it's still out of character for you - and therefore suspicious.

In regard to your short list of suspects there, the wordiness isn't working so now you come right out and point fingers at the people who've questioned your very wordiness? Extra odd.
Click to expand...
Wow.

Look at any other game, I've always posted like this. Even when I was a WW.

The wordiness isn't working.....

I'm at a loss, Melrose. I really thought you were one of the better players here, but the drivel you're coming up with to attack me... right back at you, dude... extra odd.

Like I said, I have no problem with getting lynched, I have nothing to hide. In fact, at this stage in the game I believe there's enough information to start narrowing down suspects quite significantly... if my death adds one more nail to prove a WW's identity, then I'll have considered my death more that worth it. The village above all else, even if that means my own life.
 
stonyc said:
Wow.

Look at any other game, I've always posted like this. Even when I was a WW.

The wordiness isn't working.....

I'm at a loss, Melrose. I really thought you were one of the better players here, but the drivel you're coming up with to attack me... right back at you, dude... extra odd.
Click to expand...

The fact that you're making it personal seems strange. I'm merely drawing attention to what I notice as a difference in behaviour, not "attacking" you. I made a vote, I posted my logic behind it (more than I can say for a fair amount of the votes so far) and you say explaining myself is "drivel"? Stop attacking my ability as a player just because I have a reason for voting a certain way.. Geesh.

Extra odd. I'm not saying for sure you're a wolf... I'm just trying to explain why I voted a certain way, and I'm hardly trying to convince other people to line up behind me.
 
iBlue said:
I just don't get a strong baddie vibe from stonyc and while some of his non-abijnk based theories theories make sense I think the resentment between him and abijnk is clouding his (and maybe her) judgement. Where is the love? :D
Click to expand...
I have nothing but respect for abjink. I think both she and chrmjenkins are great players. I made a comment in the simple game that I think was misconstrued or not taken the way that I thought it could have been taken and I apologized, so at least on my part I have no hard feelings towards abjink whatsoever.

I will however not let go of a couple of points:
- she was cleared by KMM, which makes her, being the player that she is, a prime target for infection (too obvious or not, game theory tells us that even simple strategies can be effective against more complex strategies).
- she voted in the block of three votes, with no explanation given whatsoever.

Taken together I believe both of those factors can be rightly construed as suspicious.

That she is the Vampire Hunter does give me pause to re-evaluate my vote on her, but like Don't Panic, I worry that the WW may have lucked in to quite the bonus if they had infected her. I can admit when I might be wrong, unlike some people in this game... so although I do not promise to change my vote on abjink at this time (see above), I do promise to consider the recent developments within the context of my original observation of the three block vote and the responses that followed.
 
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