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[WW] Bloodlust GAME OVER - WEREWOLVES WIN

Melrose said:
While I'm glad to have an otherwise innocent person back, resurrecting him once he was lynched was stupid... no offense, whoever you are.

He can still be infected. Ergo, we are back in the same square we were yesterday, albeit now - enter the possibility Teh King can be infected - we're one lynching behind the wolves. That's what we call a grand strategic blunder.

That said, I doubt he will be infected, since no one is going to take him seriously at all (another dumb reason to bring him back). The only time a resurrection does any good is if it brings back someone who is still valuable and immune.. eg, the Hunter.
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or if infection has been used up already.
it still increases the villagers by one, even if we don't know who is to be trusted. but yeah, to lynch him and revive him right away wasn't the best strategy we could come up with, we basically lost ourselves a day

i think what he says still has value, just it can't be taken at face value.
-if he scans a 'vamp/goth', it is fully believable
-if he scans a 'wolf,' we lynch the 'wolf' first and then KMM if the 'wolf' is innocent
-if he scans a 'villager' we keep it as a possibility, which might become more (or less) convincing depending on later developments

the only major risk at keeping him around is that if he is infected he might find the WWhunter and tell the wolves (if they didn't know already)
 
jav6454 said:
I was about to respond to you earlier, but had a mini emergency come up. Anyways your vote would have been wasted because I was/am advocating for the return of -aggie- a KNOWN villager (seeing as he was EATEN); hence not a wolf. Also, he is not the Goth or Vampire. Simply because ravenvii would have said something as soon as he died seeing how we lynched chrmjenkins; self-proclaimed Goth. If -aggie- would have been the Vamp, ravenvii would have done as he did when renewed was lynched last game, "the vampire threat is no more". If -aggie- would have been the Goth, same deal, ravenvii would have announced the vampire threat is no more because no more Goths remain in play; hence the vampire can't activate himself. From every perspective picking -aggie- would have been the BEST choice by FAR. His insight and line of thought are crucial for villager victory. No, you may think I am saying this because I am thought of as his "bud". But no, think deep down, you will all know this was the right choice.
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IMO, none of that matters. A wolf could still advocate for his return and then infect him when the Sorcerer brings him back. I know that Aggie is a great player, on both sides of the game. I think bringing Aggie would have had many of the same implications of bringing KMM back.

KMM on the other hand only promised on paper he will turn on the wolves; I can't trust that 100%, ever. Not after his post were he would honor the wolves' identities. More over, say he isn't infected, then he is vulnerable after the second night of being alive and we all know the wolves will rapidly dispose of him to prevent being revealed [assuming the Hunter protects him for the 1st night after revival]. All we gain is one more revelation, hardly anything useful given the odds. KMM, although a power special, was not the logical choice. It was the choice of the moment perhaps and thus not the best one in the long run. Sorry KMM, if I seem to come down hard. But after loosing the Simple game, I am not ready or even thinking of loosing this one. No hard feelings please.

Does the answer suit you NathanMuir?




Not at all. Hence why NathanMuir voted against me initially.




=====


Also, who ever is the sorcerer, reveal yourself now. This way we know who else is a villager. Your power has been used up, so there is no fear in the infection at this point.
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Your call for the Sorcerer to reveal him/ herself is also troubling. Just because his/ her power has been used doesn't mean that that they wouldn't be a target for infection.

I'm still voting for Jav6454.
 
I am not sure who to vote for. I might like to vote for whoever lead the charge against lynching our seer, if only because (as premature and silly as Mook's reveal was) lynching him based on paranoid possibilities is also pretty silly. (could have just protected him and waited for some scans) However it appears the votes were unanimous. http://upc.*************/uploads/smilies/sm-grumble.gif

Still kind of can't believe the sorcerer revived him either. What a n00b move. :p

Anyway, hopefully we can get back on some sort of coherent path here.
 
Don't panic said:
i think what he says still has value, just it can't be taken at face value.
-if he scans a 'vamp/goth', it is fully believable
-if he scans a 'wolf,' we lynch the 'wolf' first and then KMM if the 'wolf' is innocent
-if he scans a 'villager' we keep it as a possibility, which might become more (or less) convincing depending on later developments
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Right, there is still some value to having KMM back... another sign of his infection is that if he has a run of "Villagers". That would be highly unlikely and would likely mean that a WW or two might have been falsely reported as Villagers. In addition, if he outs a Special Villager and that villager is still alive, it still would be informative (see last complex game and chrmjenkins).
 
stonyc said:
Right, there is still some value to having KMM back... another sign of his infection is that if he has a run of "Villagers". That would be highly unlikely and would likely mean that a WW or two might have been falsely reported as Villagers. In addition, if he outs a Special Villager and that villager is still alive, it still would be informative (see last complex game and chrmjenkins).
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This is true but not a totally solid reason to suspect a seer. I was authentically an uninfected seer in the recent simple game and I just scanned the wrong people. (I only had 5 scans in all.) We had a quiet player I wasn't familiar with, a couple wrong guesses and I found our hunter but I only got a wolf on my 5th scan... right as I was being killed by that same wolf and couldn't say anything. So sometimes it just works out like that.
 
iBlue said:
Not really. :eek:

Unless you're a wolf looking to sway people to vote for me you're voting for an innocent. I mean really, am I EVER a baddie? It's almost funny at this point.
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I honestly have no clue in this game. I'm going back to simple after this. But just the amount of posts and explanations you are giving is a tad suspicious.

If I'm wrong you are still my favorite color! :p
 
renewed said:
I honestly have no clue in this game. I'm going back to simple after this. But just the amount of posts and explanations you are giving is a tad suspicious.

If I'm wrong you are still my favorite color! :p
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Just talking. I've home sick with an awful cold and I'm keeping distracted. I also may just be biased about the idea of the village automatically lynching our seer so I felt compelled to defend the role.

You ARE wrong though. I suppose fair is fair; I placed a vote for you in a recent game and I was wrong too. :eek:
 
iBlue said:
Just talking. I've home sick with an awful cold and I'm keeping distracted. I also may just be biased about the idea of the village automatically lynching our seer so I felt compelled to defend the role.

You ARE wrong though. I suppose fair is fair; I placed a vote for you in a recent game and I was wrong too. :eek:
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Sorry bout the cold.

BUTTTTTT, it's about time you are a baddy so I'm sticking to it. :p
 
That's pretty flawed and especially as you've seen how I play, you've piqued my suspicions. renewed. Tit for tat. :p

P.S. I SNEEZE ON YOUR FACE!
 
^ I'm still quite fond of you though for trying to bring me on the team in that first (or second) game though. A wolf, an entertainer and a gentleman! (or something) :D
 
mscriv said:
Ahem...



Hmm... why so eager to cast doubt against me appleguy123? I appreciate your concern regarding my "little fingers", but I assure you they are as dexterous as ever. I've been very active in this thread, but I haven't yet posted any solid theories as of yet because we are still early in the game and as such I'm continuing to make observations and gather information.

Speaking of observations, I find it odd that you think you are in danger from the wolf pack. What have you done to make yourself a threat to them? Is it possible you are feigning nervousness when in reality you are quite safe? Are you, in truth, rallying against the return of the seer and seeking to cast doubt against me because you don't want the seer back and you're upset that your attempt to kill me last night failed. (By the way, thank you Mr/Mrs hunter, if indeed it was me that you saved) I'm not sure you're a baddie as of yet, but it's mighty suspicious that you would accuse me of being the vampire when I've already been cleared of that charge by chrmjenkins. Hmm...???

Welcome back King Mook Mook. I look forward to hearing any good news you might be able to bring us. Since you have been brought back so quickly the village is pretty much in the same position we were in before. Would you care to consider the middle ground stance I mentioned before:



Regardless of whether you like this idea or not, I hope we keep you around at least another night. At this point I'd suggest a proper scanning of appleguy123.
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Sorry, I didn't see chris's post claiming your innocence.
I always think that I'm wolf bait because i've never made it this far in a game.
My suspicions for you are cleared.
 
jav6454 said:
I was about to respond to you earlier, but had a mini emergency come up. Anyways your vote would have been wasted because I was/am advocating for the return of -aggie- a KNOWN villager (seeing as he was EATEN); hence not a wolf. Also, he is not the Goth or Vampire. Simply because ravenvii would have said something as soon as he died seeing how we lynched chrmjenkins; self-proclaimed Goth. If -aggie- would have been the Vamp, ravenvii would have done as he did when renewed was lynched last game, "the vampire threat is no more". If -aggie- would have been the Goth, same deal, ravenvii would have announced the vampire threat is no more because no more Goths remain in play; hence the vampire can't activate himself. From every perspective picking -aggie- would have been the BEST choice by FAR. His insight and line of thought are crucial for villager victory. No, you may think I am saying this because I am thought of as his "bud". But no, think deep down, you will all know this was the right choice.

KMM on the other hand only promised on paper he will turn on the wolves; I can't trust that 100%, ever. Not after his post were he would honor the wolves' identities. More over, say he isn't infected, then he is vulnerable after the second night of being alive and we all know the wolves will rapidly dispose of him to prevent being revealed [assuming the Hunter protects him for the 1st night after revival]. All we gain is one more revelation, hardly anything useful given the odds. KMM, although a power special, was not the logical choice. It was the choice of the moment perhaps and thus not the best one in the long run. Sorry KMM, if I seem to come down hard. But after loosing the Simple game, I am not ready or even thinking of loosing this one. No hard feelings please.

Does the answer suit you NathanMuir?




Not at all. Hence why NathanMuir voted against me initially.




=====


Also, who ever is the sorcerer, reveal yourself now. This way we know who else is a villager. Your power has been used up, so there is no fear in the infection at this point.
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[*] Do not reveal yourself, sorcerer. The werwolves would then infect you because they would have someone who definitely had the trust of the villagers. Stay secret.
 
iBlue said:
This is true but not a totally solid reason to suspect a seer. I was authentically an uninfected seer in the recent simple game and I just scanned the wrong people. (I only had 5 scans in all.) We had a quiet player I wasn't familiar with, a couple wrong guesses and I found our hunter but I only got a wolf on my 5th scan... right as I was being killed by that same wolf and couldn't say anything. So sometimes it just works out like that.
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Agreed, but according to my calculations I think that you were just unlucky to not have scanned a WW by the 3rd, and definitely not by the 4th night. By the third night, assuming certain conditions, the consecutive odds ratio of you scanning a Villager three nights in row are only 77% higher than scanning a WW. By the fourth night you were 20% more likely to scan a WW than scanning a fourth villager in a row. Our odds in the complex game are decidedly better because there are up to five possibly bad guys left.

In short, if by the third night of scanning (from now), KMM has not found a WW or Vamp/Goth, I would suspect that he has been infected. By the fourth night, if he can't identify a baddie, he's toast.

By my calculations, there's a decent chance that he should be able to identify a baddie by two days (from now).

Between that and some ability to check his status (per Don't panic), I think KMM can still be quite useful.
 
So if the Goth is killed off, that means the Vampire is basically just a normal villager, right?
 
Melrose said:
So if the Goth is killed off, that means the Vampire is basically just a normal villager, right?
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That depends on whether the Vampire discovers the second Goth. If it does they both become activated. (Assuming the second Goth hasn't been killed yet).

If the second Goth has been killed, then your assumption is correct.
 
philbeeney said:
That depends on whether the Vampire discovers the second Goth. If it does they both become activated. (Assuming the second Goth hasn't been killed yet).

If the second Goth has been killed, then your assumption is correct.
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Kind of. The Vampire would be a villager that has an one-time immunity to wolf attack. Plus he can't be infected. So he's still kind of special.

Votes:

jav6454: 1 (NathanMuir)
appleguy123: 1 (Rodimus Prime)
iBlue: 1 (renewed)
renewed: 1 (iBlue
 
NathanMuir said:
IMO, none of that matters. A wolf could still advocate for his return and then infect him when the Sorcerer brings him back. I know that Aggie is a great player, on both sides of the game. I think bringing Aggie would have had many of the same implications of bringing KMM back.



Your call for the Sorcerer to reveal him/ herself is also troubling. Just because his/ her power has been used doesn't mean that that they wouldn't be a target for infection.

I'm still voting for Jav6454.
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It very well matters. However, your point on infection is well granted. However, how well can anyone fair against an infection? See in the last Simple game, iBlue scanned Mexbearpig and later on he was infected, clouding our judgement.

That can well be said for KMM; however, we have his 'promise' if that means something. Again, not going out against KMM, but his previous post makes me doubtful.

Ok, Sorcerer point granted. Also, I'll agree with mscriv. Appleguy123 needs some serious scanning. However, I vote for him, until I can find something better to go on.
 
Don't panic said:
very little to go on
i'll throw a vote at mexbearpig, based on the admittedly thin reason that he has been uncharacteristically quiet in the game, as if trying to be incospicuous
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Well you got me! I'm a wolf!

borat-not-jb.jpg


But seriously, I usually only respond to vote when needed or when I am responding to something I have an opinion on.
 
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