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[WW] Bloodlust GAME OVER - WEREWOLVES WIN

Wow, that was a quick switch! Bloody brilliant lynching, as it were :D but then Nathan. :confused: :( My moods, they are a swingin'.

I've returned home a little tipisy and tired (it's 11pm here) but much to my husband's annoyance I had to post.

Don't panic said:
on the other hand, sorry nathan! :( didn't see that coming at all. like with abijnk, i thought would be in the interests of the vamps wolves to keep the most likely infectee (to me they were willbro and nathan) alive to collect votes. In a way this clears to some extent willbro too, as it wouldn't make sense to focus the votes even more on himself. there is also the possibility (a tad optimistic) that philbeeney tried to infect renewed, in which case we'd only have one werewolf left. but ravenvii doomy words suggest that might not be the case.
top of my list suspects now that renewed is gone remain mexbearpig and melrose.
Click to expand...

Unless it was a double bluff, something to create chaos or even just not very well though out. *shrug* ARG, werewolf game paranoia!

I still suspect willbro (as infected) because I cannot understand his suspicion of me over one narrative coming through not long after I'd logged on. This is such a pivotal vote I don't want to screw it up if I'm wrong about him.

I notice that Melrose was the only person not to switch his vote to renewed. This makes me wonder if he could be the other vamp. (really wish that narrative had more clues about what our threats actually are.)

I really want to vote but I think I need to sleep on it. Please no one rush, it's become too important now.
 
willbro said:
But when renewed was lynched ravenvii said that he was a vampire. If the vampire (not the goths) gets killed, than the threat is gone. I don't think two goths can activate each other. But it seems odd to me that in one of the previous games that when the villagers lynched the vampire, ravenvii said that the vampire threat was no more. Odd.
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one goth was chrmjenkins.
if the goth was activated, he became a vampire. so renewed could have been the activated goth, or the activated goth could be still around now.

renewed was high on my 'baddie list' for a while as a possible vamp (post 1019) and also thought that Melrose made a good candidate for the other vamp/goth with him (e.g. post 1063), which is when he started coming hard after me.
his switch in voting from me to willbro when renewed got in danger is also a bit suspicious, so IF a vamp is still around, he's my number one suspect.

however, there is an important strategic question: assuming that we know the vamp, do we go after him ar do we try to thin down the wolves? are the wolves and vamps going to try to go after each other?

oh, btw, you two guys are not off my 'list' yet ;)
 
iBlue said:
I notice that Melrose was the only person not to switch his vote to renewed. This makes me wonder if he could be the other vamp. (really wish that narrative had more clues about what our threats actually are.)
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Don't panic said:
renewed was high on my 'baddie list' for a while as a possible vamp (post 1019) and also thought that Melrose made a good candidate for the other vamp/goth with him (e.g. post 1063), which is when he started coming hard after me.
his switch in voting from me to willbro when renewed got in danger is also a bit suspicious, so IF a vamp is still around, he's my number one suspect.
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Stop taking the game so personally. At least I explained why I voted that way, which is more than you demand of other players.

iBlue: The funny thing is that I did consider switching, but then figured that if I did, there would be a few that would jump all over me for trying to look innocent - the strategy that has been discussed innumerably before. In times past I've been accused of "waffling" if I do change my vote. I was damned if I did and damned if I didn't, so I just went with Willbro because when I voted he had more votes than renewed at the time.

-
If someone changes their vote based on logic, they're doomed; if they change their vote to help the game, also doomed. And if they don't change their vote, again, doomed. Then you wonder why we lose all the time. Yes, I would like to make to the end of one of these games, but hopefully you won't blame me for that. So, lynch me for that.

/rant. I'm tired. Don't blame me for that either, please :p
 
Don't panic said:
good catch,
and now go and look at post 1:


nathan is the only one were the 'cause of death' wasn't specified.
methinks we are not out of vamp troubles yet.
and if the vamp suspected nathan to be infected, that would make sense as a victim (still don't see why the ww would kill him though)
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If there were vampires, there would have been 2 killings. Which there wasn't. I'm not sure why this is being brought up.
 
Melrose said:
Stop taking the game so personally. At least I explained why I voted that way, which is more than you demand of other players.

iBlue: The funny thing is that I did consider switching, but then figured that if I did, there would be a few that would jump all over me for trying to look innocent - the strategy that has been discussed innumerably before. In times past I've been accused of "waffling" if I do change my vote. I was damned if I did and damned if I didn't, so I just went with Willbro because when I voted he had more votes than renewed at the time.

-
If someone changes their vote based on logic, they're doomed; if they change their vote to help the game, also doomed. And if they don't change their vote, again, doomed. Then you wonder why we lose all the time. Yes, I would like to make to the end of one of these games, but hopefully you won't blame me for that. So, lynch me for that.

/rant. I'm tired. Don't blame me for that either, please :p
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why do people keep taking things personally by blaming me of taking things personally?
I don't.
I am going by what i see in the game and i try to be rational about that.

I already explained why i think the reasons for that vote for me didn't make any rational sense (to me) so i am trying to find an alternative rational (to me) explanation for that vote.
If you WERE the other vamp/goth, with renewed, it would make sense that you'd feel threatened by my accusation of you being in council with him, and therefore trying to get votes switched to me. it would also make sense that once the tide started moving to renewed, you'd switch from from me to willbro, in order to close the deal with willbro and save renewed.

finally two people using the 'wait and see'/'i am confused' strategy were philbeeney and renewed: the two proven baddies of the game so far.
the other one, besides you, is mexbearpig, which i have voted repeatedly for. I also want to point to you that although I have openly suspected you, I haven't voted for you yet.

it's certainly possible that all your moves and posts are justified, that you are a villager and that my 'connect the dots' exercise is just highlighting coincidences, and i agree that sometimes in this game one might end up in a lose-lose position, but I am not out to get 'you' (as melrose), I am just openly brainstorming because i believe that is the best chance for the villagers to pull this off (and it's not going to be easy).

of the 6 remaining people likely 3 are 'bad guys'. I know i am not one of them and i think my posting and voting history shows that. if you don't believe me don't, i certainly can't force you.
at this point everyone left is suspect to me.

in order it's mexbearpig, melrose, willbro, appleguy123 and iBlue, with the first two being more suspect (to me) than the last three.

i hope this clears my thoughts.
 
appleguy123, why do you think that melrose knew the vamps were activated?
and mexbearpig, if the vamps attacked one of the ww, he would have been immune to the first attack -and wouldn't know he was attacked-

anyway, just want to say that, IF there is a vamp still active (big IF), then we shouldn't lynch him or we lose.

there are 6 people left (will call villager paesants to avoid confusion with the letter V):
P1, P2, P3 (paesants),
W1(K), W2 (wolves),
V (vamp)

a) if we lynch V, we remain with P1, P2, P3, W1(K), W2 and it's night, so P3 goes eaten. next day we have at best a 2-2 tie if both paesants vote for a wolf, however if one of the two votes for the other P, the two wolves pound on him/her and it's over. In any case the wolf can't lose the lynching if they vote together.

b) if we lynch a paesant (P3), we remain with P1, P2, V, W1(K), W2 for the night.
the paesants have to hope that the V and WW will go after each other, and it depends whether or not they have remaining immunities (one of the wolves might have lost his last night -which the vamp would know-, the vamp should have his). if one or both of the V and WW go after the paesants, i think the Ps are gone. so paradoxically it's better to kill a paesant than the V today :(

b) if we lynch a wolf it is still difficult, and it depends whether it is W1(K) or W2 that goes. if it is the kamikaze he/she will try to go after the vamp (likely) and take out his/her immunity (if it works during the day, not sure about that), then the other W2 can finish the vamp at night (and the vamp will try to get the WW or its immunity. if we lynch W2, than there should be a night match vamp-ww (of course they will not know for sure who the ww/vamp is, so they'll just take their best guess)

the best case scenario in the case of an active vamp is if we lynch a wolf and the vamp takes out the other wolf at night and then we lynch the vamp. very difficult, but not impossible, because at this point the biggest danger for Vand WW are each other.

if there is no vampire, the situation is simple, we HAVE to get one W today or we go straight to the 2-2 scenario (a)

very tricky.

EDIT: another possibility, as mentioned earlier is that philbeeney attempt at infection hit the vamp and so didn't work, or he forgot to do it, so there are also (less likely) possible scenarios with only one WW (the kamikaze one), with or without the extra vamp.
 
appleguy123 said:
See bolded part. When everyone was celebrating the vampire threat ending, Melrose asked in the subjunctive "haven't been activated."
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Oh. No, I meant that in connection with the first question, where I asked if they had been activated. :) That is to say, the emphasized word is supposed to be haven't. I should have underlined or italicised it.
 
hehe, everyone is walking on eggs.
no room for mistakes if you are a villager.

situation so far (in alphabetical order):

appleguy123: voted for Melrose
Don't Panic: didn't vote
iBlue: didn't vote
melrose: didn't vote
mexbearpig: didn't vote
willbro: didn't vote
 
Melrose said:
Oh. No, I meant that in connection with the first question, where I asked if they had been activated. :) That is to say, the emphasized word is supposed to be haven't. I should have underlined or italicised it.
Click to expand...

I do intend to change my vote when I can think on it more, but for now it stays until I can get a better idea.
 
What a predicament!

I think we've got one chance here to get a baddie or the village loses. (at least that's what I surmise from the most recent narrative.)

I'm still pretty concerned about willbro and that seemingly casual vote isn't helping. :eek:

Melrose and Mexbearpig also pique my suspicions but it's not overly obvious either way. Melrose often is damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. It's difficult to tell what the hell side he's on.

If Don't panic is a baddie, he's been so careful in his wording that I can't pick a hole in it.
Appleguy123, no idea. I think I'm just not familiar enough with his style to make an accurate judgement. He's never stood out much to me as a baddie though and hasn't mob voted. He also made a good call with renewed recently.

I still have a bad feeling about willbro so I hesitate to vote alongside him because it might be directly misleading. Though Melrose isn't an illogical vote and one I was considering myself.

Because I've regretted not doing this in the past, I think I am going with my gut on this. willbro. *gulp* and *fingers crossed*
 
below is an updated rundown of the vote history, excluding today's.
it should be complete and i used stonyc's as a base for the early days.
let me know if you spot an error and i'll correct.

the current update is (majority 4):

Melrose: 2 (appleguy123, willbro)
willbro:1 (iBlue)

didn't vote: 3 (don't panic, mexbearpig, willbro)

- IF indeed there is another lurking vamp, in my opinion the most likely by far is melrose. that said, for the reasons pointed bove, lynching the vamp would not be a good move for the villagers

- the philbeeney vote would indicate that the kamikaze wolf would be either appleguy123 or iBlue (who voted post-majority was reached)
- other earlier votes/posts point more to mexbearpig (including stonyc analysis)

if iblue is the kamikaze, the infected is not willbro (iblue was still voting for him on the brink last round), while if the kamikaze is appleguy the switch to renewed could be a last attempt to divert attention from the infected willbro.

on the other hand, everyone is a fairly good candidate for infection, with iblue and melrose at the forefront based on the 'expert' reason someone had floated earlier..

one of the possible plays could have been that once his fate was getting close, phil infected iBlue (or appleguy, the other of the two being the kamikaze) and then both iblue and appleguy123 voted for phil 'late' in disguise.

or, appleguy and willbro could try to get the vamp killed, if they believe melrose is one.

mmmh, decisions, decisions
 

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