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[WW] Knee-Deep in the Dead - WOOF WOOF WEREWOLVES WIN
- Thread starter twietee
- Start date
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Don't worrie, just trust yourself. you can't trust us. We try to help you make your mind, that's all.
Sorry everyone, I just got unexpectedly really busy at work.
I wanted to participate but I didn't want to vote for people at random but also couldn't find the time to read all the posts.
And I would not have exposed myself if you did not gave us that jammed packed information. knowing that a ww was hiding with a fake roll pushed me to do it.
Sorry everyone, I just got unexpectedly really busy at work.
At least you're still alive!
Oh, no you aren't.
Seriously, was just pondering whether I should re-introduce the Lost in the Woods rule. (Absolutely hate it)
Your call, guys.
Bottom priority for lynching would be where the wolves would look for their snacks I'd have thought but I agree DP/Sythas/TechGod I would have thought are higher priority targets for the wolves unless their infected or got away with a lie. All powers that the wolves don't want around. I'm probably also a target if DP/Comeagain? are wolves.
Especially if I'm allowed to scan every night, I'll eventually figure out who is lying about their roles. Regardless. I'm getting at least one more scan tonight anyway if the wolves target Sythas or they target me and Sythas protects me.
That possibility leaves DP exposed however and his analytical skills are amazing. You're gonna have to give me some time and I may have something useful to post shortly.
one important aspect is what roles the WW do in fact have.
that could have a significant impact
for example, if Fenris is a WW, and he is indeed the blocker, he can block sythas and then kill whoever they want, or block techgod, or comeagain
Melrose could be anything, including the necromancer
rick and raven cannot be the soother/seer wolf, but they can be the other wolf, but at least they wouldn't have another power to use.
plus of course there is the power of the infected wolf. executioner would be particularly bad. die-hard would too,but luckily for us "i has it"
i think they still have the edge, but it's closer
and at least the seer power they stole is now basically useless
hopefully you can be more active in the next game
. Yes, it should read soother/seer.
that could have a significant impact
for example, if Fenris is a WW, and he is indeed the blocker, he can block sythas and then kill whoever they want, or block techgod, or comeagain
Melrose could be anything, including the necromancer
rick and raven cannot be the soother/seer wolf, but they can be the other wolf, but at least they wouldn't have another power to use.
plus of course there is the power of the infected wolf. executioner would be particularly bad. die-hard would too,but luckily for us "i has it"
i think they still have the edge, but it's closer
and at least the seer power they stole is now basically useless
things happen, but even a little participation can go a long way.Sorry everyone, I just got unexpectedly really busy at work.
hopefully you can be more active in the next game
i had used it mercilessly in some of the old games. it is effective, but people hated it. the major problem is that it usually penailzes the village. wolves go MIA but then pop up at the right time
you got me this time!
. Yes, it should read soother/seer. i would be very surprised -if you are not a wolf- if you are targeted: that would reduce even more the pool of the highly suspect. whoever is not a WW in the 'pool of 4' is I think quite safe for a couple of nights
@TechGod: I don't blame you; And I share your lack of ability to analyze things to death, resurrect them, and analyze them again..
Well, at least you'll admit that I've been active the whole game as often as I can be, regardless of your opinion of me otherwise.
Well, at least you'll admit that I've been active the whole game as often as I can be, regardless of your opinion of me otherwise.
Just been doing an analysis of claimed roles and how it affects us if true/false - coming up soon. You being die-hard is only lucky if your not infected and the infection has already been used. Otherwise its a nightmare for us.
But other powers are possibly more useful as they know who to target. I'm not sure we've gained as much as they have. Yeah the Seer power is now useless because we've given them all the roles! They know where the lies are. So we've basically given them a 1 time fully augmented Scan - I think that's probably helped them as much as it has us - more in certain cases.one important aspect is what roles the WW do in fact
i think they still have the edge, but it's closer
and at least the seer power they stole is now basically useless
Yeah - unfortunately it was usually the ones without major roles that go MIA. Thought this everyone having a role idea might change that - seems not. Not sure how you address that - is it worse to lose them or for the villagers to have to vote them off? Should discuss on your scoring thread after the game.
LOL!you got me this time!
True - if I'm targeted soon it would have to be because they need to neutralize my power
Analysis of each persons claimed role and potential trouble it could cause the village.
Comeagain? Claimed Executioner. Could be infected or lied.
Claimed power used against village would be very bad as they could execute anyone of us - does that include the die-hard? - I'm not sure what happens if the executioner tries to execute the die-hard?
Claimed power used for village - could be essential if DP is infected and Execution overrides die-hard?
Wolf meal likelyhood: Medium
Don't Panic Claimed Die-hard. Could be infected or lied (lied only possible if Seer was infected).
Claimed power used against village would be very bad as we'd need to lynch him twice unless we can override that.
Claimed power used for village - unlikely to be any use at this point as we'd need to lynch him first
Wolf meal likelyhood: High
Fenris Claimed blocker. Could be original wolf, infected or lied.
Claimed power used against village could be bad - block Guard, Thug, Die-hard, Thug, Undertaker from using their ability
Claimed power used for village - could be essential if DP or comeagain are infected.
Wolf meal likelyhood: Low unless DP or comeagain are infected.
Melrose Claimed, only hints. Could be original wolf or infected
Claimed power used against village ???
Claimed power used for village ???
Wolf meal likelyhood: ???
Moyank Claimed Thug. Could be infected or lied.
Claimed power used against village - not possible
Claimed power used for village - possible helpful - the wolves will want to push to lynch Moyank as they can't eat him.
Wolf meal likelyhood: Very very low
Ravenvii Proved leech? Could be original wolf or infected. Unless Tomorrow is a wolf Ravenvii is the leech and he leeched Tomorrow.
Claimed power is spent. Although if Tomorrow is an infected Seer than he could be hiding another power - say if Pluto was actually the leech.
Wolf meal likelyhood: Very low
Rick Proved scavenger/hunter? Could be original wolf or infected. Pot shot against SS Spy could confirm wolfishness or could be rick random.
Claimed power is spent. Could have been swapped to Seer after using power.
Wolf meal likelyhood: Very low
Sythas Claimed Guard. Could be infected or lied. Unlikely as it would require real guard to be dead.
Claimed power used against village - no affect - instakill is already used.
Claimed power used for village - useful - could still stop wolf killings.
Wolf meal likelyhood: Very High
TechGod Claimed Undertaker. Could be infected. I don't see how he'd have got away with claiming undertaker if he wasn't so only option for him being a wolf is infection
Claimed power used against village - very bad - any of his revealed scans could be lies (an actual wolves power specified) so they could hide behind the original players power.
Claimed power used for village - could catch a lie - but very few roles not outed already.
Wolf meal likelyhood: Medium
Tomorrow Claimed Seer/swapped/leeched. Could be infected or lied. Lie is only possible if the real Seer was infected but in which case Tomorrow could have been Soother all along and swapper was never in play or belonged to dead scanned player (Intel). Seer could be hiding behind Pluto's power.
Claimed power has been removed.
Wolf meal likelyhood if telling truth: Low
Wolf meal preference assuming people are telling the truth
Sythas, DP, TechGod, Comeagain? Fenris, Tomorrow, ravenvii, rick, Melrose*, Moyank
* Melrose hard to be accurate but its down there with ravenvii and rick somewhere.
At least 1 of the above claims must be false
Comeagain? Claimed Executioner. Could be infected or lied.
Claimed power used against village would be very bad as they could execute anyone of us - does that include the die-hard? - I'm not sure what happens if the executioner tries to execute the die-hard?
Claimed power used for village - could be essential if DP is infected and Execution overrides die-hard?
Wolf meal likelyhood: Medium
Don't Panic Claimed Die-hard. Could be infected or lied (lied only possible if Seer was infected).
Claimed power used against village would be very bad as we'd need to lynch him twice unless we can override that.
Claimed power used for village - unlikely to be any use at this point as we'd need to lynch him first
Wolf meal likelyhood: High
Fenris Claimed blocker. Could be original wolf, infected or lied.
Claimed power used against village could be bad - block Guard, Thug, Die-hard, Thug, Undertaker from using their ability
Claimed power used for village - could be essential if DP or comeagain are infected.
Wolf meal likelyhood: Low unless DP or comeagain are infected.
Melrose Claimed, only hints. Could be original wolf or infected
Claimed power used against village ???
Claimed power used for village ???
Wolf meal likelyhood: ???
Moyank Claimed Thug. Could be infected or lied.
Claimed power used against village - not possible
Claimed power used for village - possible helpful - the wolves will want to push to lynch Moyank as they can't eat him.
Wolf meal likelyhood: Very very low
Ravenvii Proved leech? Could be original wolf or infected. Unless Tomorrow is a wolf Ravenvii is the leech and he leeched Tomorrow.
Claimed power is spent. Although if Tomorrow is an infected Seer than he could be hiding another power - say if Pluto was actually the leech.
Wolf meal likelyhood: Very low
Rick Proved scavenger/hunter? Could be original wolf or infected. Pot shot against SS Spy could confirm wolfishness or could be rick random.
Claimed power is spent. Could have been swapped to Seer after using power.
Wolf meal likelyhood: Very low
Sythas Claimed Guard. Could be infected or lied. Unlikely as it would require real guard to be dead.
Claimed power used against village - no affect - instakill is already used.
Claimed power used for village - useful - could still stop wolf killings.
Wolf meal likelyhood: Very High
TechGod Claimed Undertaker. Could be infected. I don't see how he'd have got away with claiming undertaker if he wasn't so only option for him being a wolf is infection
Claimed power used against village - very bad - any of his revealed scans could be lies (an actual wolves power specified) so they could hide behind the original players power.
Claimed power used for village - could catch a lie - but very few roles not outed already.
Wolf meal likelyhood: Medium
Tomorrow Claimed Seer/swapped/leeched. Could be infected or lied. Lie is only possible if the real Seer was infected but in which case Tomorrow could have been Soother all along and swapper was never in play or belonged to dead scanned player (Intel). Seer could be hiding behind Pluto's power.
Claimed power has been removed.
Wolf meal likelyhood if telling truth: Low
Wolf meal preference assuming people are telling the truth
Sythas, DP, TechGod, Comeagain? Fenris, Tomorrow, ravenvii, rick, Melrose*, Moyank
* Melrose hard to be accurate but its down there with ravenvii and rick somewhere.
At least 1 of the above claims must be false
yes, we have given them knowledge of all the roles, but we have given it to the village as well.
In any case, the 'ground' we gained is not in the powers, it is in the odds.
Before, we were semi-clueless on who to target and, now we basically have 50% chance at two wolves.
It is a pretty huge difference
maybe - maybe not. We have at least 1 person with a claimed role that is a lie, possibly 2. I'm trying to think how that could have happened.
interesting analysis.
however the 'wolf meal risk' is too centered on the powers.
the primary metric will be on keeping the wolves as 'hidden' as possible during the day.
if two wolves are in the group of fenris/melrose/rick/ravenvii, as it is highly likely, the other two in that group are safe, no matter what the power is.
of the rest, then the powers matter, and other considerations.
the order of "snackability", IMO, is
sythas>tomorrow>techgod>dontpanic/comegain>fenris/rick/ravenvii/melrose>thug
main difference is tomorrow. what puts him at risk in my view is that he is relatively 'cleared', compared to others
as far as the executioner/die-hard, that i can answer.
the executioner simply swaps people on the gallows, so he puts the die-hard there, and the die hards would then use his power. if the executioner swaps the die-hard out, he is safe without using the power
also the blocker could be also useful against melrose unknown power if melrose is ww (collapser, necromancer, judge, etc.
Why so? Someone can claim a power from the general pool but that doesn't prevent them from being an original wolf does it? It might be that no one is lying but obviously the wolves aren't going to tell us all their roles/powers. Obviously after tonight's scan we can clear one more role that the wolves may attempt to hide behind(if they are lying)
The night is yet longer still from the somewhat jaundiced perspective of those of us watching events unfold……….from afar.
TechGod died as a loyal villager of Wolfsmouth.
It is now Night Six. Fill those ballots!
Next Deadline is Sunday 04:00 PM EST.
Damn it, random did not picked the right person to protect. I should have listened to you Techgod.
predictable choice. Highest value for the village with sythas.
on the good part we can now confirm that any of his scans were legit.
it could also imply that the wolves somehow feared that his scan might have exposed one of them (although we already know that at least one is pretending)
majority lock is at 5. I am debating (with myself) of the pro/cons of a quick lock
on the good part we can now confirm that any of his scans were legit.
it could also imply that the wolves somehow feared that his scan might have exposed one of them (although we already know that at least one is pretending)
majority lock is at 5. I am debating (with myself) of the pro/cons of a quick lock
Because at least Fenris was direct about his role and yes this explain his rebutal against DP.
Melrose is acting exactly like the last game, wich he was a villager, but it's the only one who did not told us his role.