Got a tip for us?
Let us know
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
[WW] The MRville Horror, Part 3 GAME OVER - Villagers Win!
- Thread starter ravenvii
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
- Status
Wrong again. It's the opposite of what happened to iBlue. She kept saying she wasn't a special, we lynched her, and she wasn't a wolf. Jav5464 keeps saying he wishes he was a werewolf, so what's going to happen when we lynch him? He is? It just sounds too stupid. Although I would love to be proven wrong, I'm just not buying it. I lead the mob on iBlue's lynching, I'm not going to have jav's blood on my hands, too.
How so, please do tell? Read on...
Why again? Read on...
Well, then here I am so you can know me. Read on..
I was thinking alike. Why is willbro so anxious to see someone go to the gallows and so determined that he must ask to bold a name without just reason or argument? Goes to show, willbro has a ncie agenda.
How so? Read on...
For those of you voting against me, here is my defense. If I were the wolf, wouldn't I have killed or at least make my pack kill those who voted against me? In other words, wouldn't have I gone for Rodimus Prime, iBookG4user and Gelfin. Yet, none of those original accusers are dead, much very alive.
In fact, iBookG4user one of my original persecuters doesn't even think it's me anymore. Why would that be, cause there is so many evidence pointing at someone else.
Instead we see that the only one of the few people who voted against ufcgrad93 is dead, stonyc. True he changed his vote, but that was because he saw it was inevitable to vote for one guy. However, we know the polls were closed at the time of his change, so his vote was considered against ufcgrad93.
Call me crazy, but that seems wolfy to me. People on these forums know me for vengeance (and following Tallest Skil's steps aswell in many aspects), and wouldn't I have chosen to do so with my acusers?
Oh by the way, I don't know my vote yet.
Edit - I can't help notice, that willbro is very adamant in my killing? Why is that? What did I do? Can you back it up?
I know this might seem to be a small reason, but this really arose my suspicion. I'm going to change my vote to willbro.
My same thoughts, he has been very adamant in my murder.
Also, if I were a wolf, I think we can agree, that I would have taken out you or your fellow voting peers (the ones who wanted me dead the day before). Yet here you are alive. A think that speaks volumes.
well, maybe he knows something about you, which we don't know.
he was very quiet, and then suddenly he comes hard at you.
why would he do that? why would you be a threat to him?
I was about to change my vote. This observation has me thinking. So I am keeping my vote the same.
Agreed.
However, why not clean and say why of the vote. So far I see no reasoning besides "he looks suspicious"
He has given no real reason for his adamant persue. I just think he wants mod mentality to run over.
So I am also wondering whether this bit specifically means the vampire has found the goth or if this is just flavor text. Up to now we seem to be quite fortunate that either we have a very effective vampire hunter or the vampire isn't looking very hard.
I guess we'll find out soon enough once night comes, but if this is an actual emergency and not just a test of the Monster Broadcating System, I'd like to know.
i don't think he'd tell us, and one vampire was always there (just not active) so it would still make sense to say that.
another interpretation is that they tried to infect the vamp and failed, so the ww would know about the vamp.
as far as being lucky with the vamp , we only had two nights, so we can assume that they didn't find each other on the first night, but the chances were not in their favor (1/17+1/17= 11% chances) we'll only find out the next night if they met on the second night (15%) chance)
I have one idea brewing in my head. But if you are thinking what I'm thinking, you know why I wont say it..
You know what, if willbro wants to vote against me, it's fair I also vote against who I think.
My reason for this hasn't come lightly. I have been reading for the past minutes and he has provided no reason for coming this hard on me. In fact, it might be suspicious seem he wants to focus on me so much that it distracts attention from him (like what happened to philbeeney). I don't see a real argument in his reasoning.
willbro has my vote.
Killing me would only worsen the cause (one less villager). Also, me thinks that vampire might be willbro. He raises his odds of finding the Goth by slaying a villager
That he is the Seer? I am think more like he is the vampire. Remember, the vampire is at a disadvantage, he'd want to get rid as much of the villagers as possible to get to the Goth. He can't kill at night, so he has to cunningly select victims at day.
My reason for this hasn't come lightly. I have been reading for the past minutes and he has provided no reason for coming this hard on me. In fact, it might be suspicious seem he wants to focus on me so much that it distracts attention from him (like what happened to philbeeney). I don't see a real argument in his reasoning.
willbro has my vote.
Killing me would only worsen the cause (one less villager). Also, me thinks that vampire might be willbro. He raises his odds of finding the Goth by slaying a villager
That he is the Seer? I am think more like he is the vampire. Remember, the vampire is at a disadvantage, he'd want to get rid as much of the villagers as possible to get to the Goth. He can't kill at night, so he has to cunningly select victims at day.
Not necessarily. When I was the werewolf I rarely killed the people who voted for me because that would only make the other suspicious of me.
Not always the case. I already had suspicion on me by Gelfin, Rodimus Prime and others. In those cases, like now, it would only make me look more guilty.
I am the kind that thinks on impulse, not strategizes, hence my many Time-Outs in the forums for getting into, um, well insults. Trust me, if I were the wolf, I would go after the clever ones or the ones that may look like danger to me, not some user that has nothing on me.
I didn't say it was always the case, I said that it's not a guarantee that the werewolf will immediatly kill those who vote for him.
Agreed. But wouldn't I be voting for Gelfin and the others right now? Instead I voted for the one person who was with me in iBlue's demise; mainly because of his lack of reason behind the vote and his strong will to have others bold me.
so willbro we heard Jav6454's arguments on why he should be spared, and he points the finger squarely at you.
your turn now, why shouldn't you be the chosen one today?
why did you pick jav?
your turn now, why shouldn't you be the chosen one today?
why did you pick jav?
I'd like to comment on your vamp percentages. Right now, we are 15 users. 2 of those are the Goth and Vamp. That means there is a 1/15 chance that they find each other. That's a 6.67% chance. Accounting for one of them. Getting rid of a villager would increase that to 7.14% not much.
Now, double that since we have two people scanning and we get 14% chance over the original ~13%. Not much, but factor in that they already had 2 nights to scan. So that means 4 users are out.
That means, the true odds are 1/11 or without me, 1/10. 10% chance. Doubling that, we have 20% chances of finding each other.
Now that's high. It will only increase with next night as 2 more users will be out of the question.
How should I know? Every person plays differently, my point was just that the werewolf isn't necessarily going to kill someone just because they voted for them. In fact the werewolf could be playing people against each other.
I admit you are somewhat persuasive, but I'm not prepared to vote for somebody else yet either. You are not in immediate danger, so I will think about my position a bit and come back.
I would like to hear from willbro as well.
you lost me half way through.
isn't the point the same, though? the chance that vamp and goth are low at the beginning and, assuming they stay alive, they quickly grow.
we started in 19, minus one lynched on day 1, we got to night 1 in 18.
each of the vamp and goth had a 1/17 chance to find the other (since they wouldn't scan themselves. any one of the two event is ok, so the chance they got lucky on night one is 1/17+1/17, or 11.7%.
by night 2, 2 more villagers were gone, leaving 16 live people. both vamp and goth have now 14 remaining candidates, the chance is 1/14+1/14 or 14.2% (I had approximated at ~15%).
one more dead in night 2 and one more lynched today (day 3) will take the survivor's down to 14. If they are both still alive and still looking for each other they each have 14-1(themselves)-2 (already scanned)=11. 1/11+1/11= 18.1%.
but they wouldn't have any interest in getting you specifically unless they scanned you. in that case they would want to get rid of you (or anyone of known identity) to avoid accidentally killing their partner. but they'd especially want to get rid of the warewolves, who are a a much bigger threat (especially to the goth). except, their senses wouldn't tell them if you are a werewolf or a regular villager, only if you are the other bloodsucker or not.
only the seer would know a werewolf after scanning.
you lost me half way through.
isn't the point the same, though? the chance that vamp and goth are low at the beginning and, assuming they stay alive, they quickly grow.
.... snip ...
but they wouldn't have any interest in getting you specifically unless they scanned you. in that case they would want to get rid of you to avoid accidentally killing their partner. but they'd especially want to get rid of the warewolves, who are a a much bigger threat (especially to the goth).
Well, I think I might have been scanned (by one of them) and found not to be the Goth... so to make their odds better, get rid of me.
I don't think ravenvii releases the true roll during the vampire scan. I just think he tells the vamp or the goth, sorry, not your type. If ravenvii does say the true roles, then he'd put not only the wolves at risk, but also the Hunters, the Seer and Undertaker.
There would be no point of having a Seer, when the vamp and the Goth would doble as Seers.
i agree with this last part
but the motivation to go after you if he is the vamp/goth and knows you aren't his partner is incremental, while if he is the seer and he knows you are one of the bad guys said motivation would be very strong.
- Status