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[WW] - They Live?! - GAME OVER - Villagers win!
- Thread starter chrmjenkins
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
It's called taking a stance on the issue of the day. I was all for a moyank on Day2, but it makes little sense now given the current situation. Each day I draw out conclusions based on previous days and will adjust accordingly. No one is above suspicion.
Right now, my suspicions is pointed at you for not stating you saved the Seer power.
The point not to come out (at all originally) was that the ww would have thought they killed the Seer. I would have done it privately and swapping with Koodauw. By that QoS would have received no-power / Oracle and would have known who became the Seer - I would have made some remark so that she (and quite possibly) Koodauw would have known who swapped, so possibly wouldn't vote for me since it would only very remotely made sense to do it that way if I'd be a baddie. By that she at least could have decided to stay silent and still pretent her Seer role - or else. Note that Koodauw still not cleared, his Oracle gave us +2% to catch a baddie if I understand DP right. Why not doing it right after Pluto's lynching? Because I have a ton of work to do in advance of my hollidays and hence forgot about the possible Maniac - which wasn't mentioned once in the thread as well before. So yeah - pretty lame gameplay by me I guess. I wanted to see who got killed and who she scanned first for a more educated guess on my part.
Now, everything changed, had to give a total stranger the guarding power plus ss (at least 50% a baddie from my perspective) some unknown ability.
The fact that Jav presents in my opinion a pretty so-so defence while ss is absent, can be read in multiple ways:
- He could be the Morpher asking for the Guarding power hence forming a NW with her (quite possible).
- Could be the Spy and knows that QoS got protected (doesn't mean that much imo, ss could have done it anyway while being infected because she anticipated this scenario + he already, and in a pretty weak way imo and not likely for such a pro as Jav, defended her already Day 2)
- Could be a baddie and knows QoS and SS are innocent.
2/3 points make a vote change of mine to Moyank look like a good idea.
Maybe I should add, don't know - said it before but I get criticized pretty selectively - that I outed me now after QoS's death because of the threat of getting insta-killed while she could have been revived three posts later. So not totally useless imo. But who knows.
Anyway, feel free to vote for me. Nothing but a plain vanilla villager now.
Anyway, feel free to vote for me. Nothing but a plain vanilla villager now.
-who was cleared the day QoS came out? Right, nobody.
- ss said she protected DP in #250 while QoS died #238 - hindsight much?
-is that even true (I know one of Mo and ss is lying)?
- why would DP be cleared by that anyway - because he got protected?
- why would I want DP to be the Seer anyway as he's one to leave our games always early when a good guy.
I think its to big of a risk if twietee is the swapper and also a wolf. If tweitee is a wolf and swapped the guard power to some to wolves, it effects a lot of things. It would defeat any purpose of bringing back QoS since the wolves would know they have a free kill. They could also switch the power to a villager, and since they would know who the new guard is, they could easily target them.
If we find out twietee is innocent, I think that sets more truths for us moving foward.
I think it can be any of the 3, and this move makes the most sense to me.
You're right. With the infection in play, nobody was cleared, not even Koodauw.
I believe that SS is the guard, based on what I know about the villagers who have been killed.
I also believe that Pluto may have considered using his infection early, knowing that he's only always in danger of being lynched as well as the fact that it had to be done at night. If SS is infected, then of course she could be lying about the protections. As could I - because for both of us the only scenario that is possible is that we have been infected.
Your scenario is a bit simpler, as you could have been a WW from the beginning.
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The instakill would be quite useful right now.
my point, is that IF twietee is the swapper, than, there could be no maniac and QoS could not have been killed if both moyank and SS told the truth.
please see my post #286 for the logic. nobody commented on that, but i think it is sound.
in other words, IF twietee is the swapper, it makes him the LEAST suspect of the 3.
I am persuaded that he told the truth about being the swapper, because it would have been too risky to pick a role that could be easily verified, so i will believe him.
plus, his defense has been consistent and reasonable.
i put moyank and scepticalscribe on the same level, since they are in very equivalent positions (i do believe SS is traveling, so i won't factor her absence in)
i am going to go with moyank for the time being, mainly because she has one vote already, but I am willing to switch to scepticalscribe
EDIT: Twietee, jav can not be in the NW with SS. the morpher HAS to pick their role from the general pool.
Couldnt twietee be the the swapper wolf and SS infected? There would have been no protection of QOS then. I think thats what I am trying to rule out.
I may need to run through a few if-then statements in my head.
I am probably making this far more complex than it needs to be. The maniac power was probably used.
Nice, I'm pleased with my post-death scene.
I never got a chance to mention this earlier because things got so complicated, but all of his narrations have been awesome, and yours was excellent (beside the whole death part of it!).
chrmjenkins captured my emotions perfectly! Which is why I used 3 of these:
!My girlfriend is....not taking this well. I think without Neymar and Silva their expectations were very much tempered, because Germany has been much more impressive...but wow. I'm treading very carefully, here.
I wish you the best of luck. Sports can be the best. And also the worst.
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I think that it's more likely that SS is infected and/or the maniac power was used than for both twietee and SS to be wolves.
As I said, the instakill would come in handy now. I'd rather be instakilled than voted off so we don't lose a day.
yes, he could be the swapper wolf AND SS was infected.
but he could be a swapper villager AND SS was infected.
what he could NOT be is the swapper wolf and SS NOT be infected.
so, if he is the swapper wolf, SS is also a wolf, if he is the swapper but not a wolf, SS or moyank are wolves.
IF we believe twietee is the swapper, the most logical choice is scepticalscribe, than moyank.
i voted moyank over SS because she had one vote already
So if we vote of twietee and find out that hes the swapper and a wolf, you know SS was infected. Thats a home run.
If we go after SS, and she was infected, that still leaves the chance of twietee being a wolf. I know I will still wonder.
moyank, what is your opinion of my idea that if twietee is the swapper he can't be a wolf?
any logical fallacy you can see?
calling out appleguy, ucfgrad, ravenvii: how about playing a little bit?
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yes, but if SS is infected, the chances of twietee being a wolf are the same as the chances I, you, and everyone else is of being a wolf.
he would not be cleared, but he would not be particularly suspect, as your oracle answer would be fulfilled by SS being a wolf (since she would have been infected the first night)
any logical fallacy you can see?
calling out appleguy, ucfgrad, ravenvii: how about playing a little bit?
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yes, but if SS is infected, the chances of twietee being a wolf are the same as the chances I, you, and everyone else is of being a wolf.
he would not be cleared, but he would not be particularly suspect, as your oracle answer would be fulfilled by SS being a wolf (since she would have been infected the first night)
And we really don't know if someone has been given the Guard Power. If someone has been given the ability via the Swapper, they may not want to out themselves.
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I'm trying to talk this out in my head.
Why, again, can't he be the swapper AND an original wolf?
I'm going to believe that SS was telling the truth about being the guard which means if she's a wolf she HAS to be infected.
Same with me.
no we don't, and they definitively shouldn't out themselves as the new guard.
but if twietee was not the swapper, why would he pretend to be?
he couldn't be sure if a swapper was in fact already in the game, so he would be exposed.
and the swapper is a verifiable power, so it would be easy to be falsified.
if he had swapped you, you would know and could tell that you were. unfortunately SS is traveling so she can't confirm/deny it right now.
Honestly, I believe that we are all telling the truth about our roles.
But the swapper is General Pool, not village exclusive, so he can be both an original and the swapper.
Also, I have not received anything from the GG informing me that my powers have been swapped. But he did say he swapped SS with a "total stranger" IIRC.
ok, i'll try to explain better: step by step, so it easier to see the possible flaws.
- we started with 3 wolves. alpha, kami plus one third picked between the special and general pool.
- the third wolf could be the Maniac, OR could be the Swapper, but we cannot have the Maniac AND the Swapper as original wolves
- pluto was the alpha.
- one of twietee, moyank and scepticalscribe is a wolf (per Oracle)
- Qos was killed at night. SS claimed she protected her that same night. this can be possible only if
- if twietee is the swapper, he cannot be the maniac, then how did QoS die?
- we started with 3 wolves. alpha, kami plus one third picked between the special and general pool.
- the third wolf could be the Maniac, OR could be the Swapper, but we cannot have the Maniac AND the Swapper as original wolves
- pluto was the alpha.
- one of twietee, moyank and scepticalscribe is a wolf (per Oracle)
- Qos was killed at night. SS claimed she protected her that same night. this can be possible only if
a. she is lying or
b. the maniac overcame her protection (not sure if the meddler can also redirect protection, but the situation would be stye same as with the maniac)
b. the maniac overcame her protection (not sure if the meddler can also redirect protection, but the situation would be stye same as with the maniac)
- if twietee is the swapper, he cannot be the maniac, then how did QoS die?
a. scepticalscribe was not an original wolf but she has been infected, qoS was not protected. no need for maniac, there are two other wolves out there (kami + another one)
b. moyank was not an original wolf but she has been infected. there has to be a maniac out there, plus the kami
c. twietee was not an original wolf but he has been infected. there has to be a maniac out there, plus the kami
b. moyank was not an original wolf but she has been infected. there has to be a maniac out there, plus the kami
c. twietee was not an original wolf but he has been infected. there has to be a maniac out there, plus the kami
Looks like it.
Annoying!
I'm not a wolf, and I'm just not sure about SS or twietee (who, to his credit, is putting together a heck of a defense and with SS unavailable it certainly makes it harder), so I'm sticking with my vote.
This is where the instakill would have been handy, but it looks like it's not to be.
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Ahhh thank you!
That makes sense now!
So should we go with SS?
ok, so there is a possibility that twietee isa wolf, if he was infected, just like moyank and scepticalscribe.
or he could be lying about is role, just ike moyank and scepticalscribe.
all 3 are plausible infection target by Plutonius on night 1.
the only things that breaks the symmetry is that the "twietee or moyank are wolves" scenarios requires that the maniac is in play, while "SS is a wolf" does not.
so I am switching my vote to Scepticalscribe based on that.
also, if twietee was the infected swapper, wouldn't he have swapped away the seer powers from QoS as soon as she came out?
or he could be lying about is role, just ike moyank and scepticalscribe.
all 3 are plausible infection target by Plutonius on night 1.
the only things that breaks the symmetry is that the "twietee or moyank are wolves" scenarios requires that the maniac is in play, while "SS is a wolf" does not.
so I am switching my vote to Scepticalscribe based on that.
also, if twietee was the infected swapper, wouldn't he have swapped away the seer powers from QoS as soon as she came out?
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I think its one of these 3 can we get %'s on each one?
Scepticalscribe
well, the probability of the maniac being randomly selected as the third wolf at the beginning of the game is 1/20. so you can factor that in
Theoretically, he could have swapped right before they killed her, as it is a power that could be used anytime.
I'll switch to SS and we'll see what happens.