Apple CEO Tim Cook: iPhone X Has Been the Top Selling iPhone Every Week Since it Shipped

[ftaok]

of course he isn't lying but you do realize that it doesn't take much for the newest iphone to be the leader of the pack when you have 7 other offerings. 12.6% at worst case. 100/8

Not if you do the math. I don't have a spreadsheet yet, but my gut says of they sold 12.6% for each individual model, they couldn't reach the $800 asp.

I built a spreadsheet a few weeks ago that used the Nov breakdown percentages from cirp. I'll run some numbers tomorrow to compare with reality

I see someone else posted this thought.I guess the sales mix to get $800 but locking in that the X is the sales leader will be estimatable.

 

[dotnet]

Do meteorologists ever get fired for predicting the weather incorrectly?

They would, if they were consistently wrong, and their method involved reading the tea leaves – even after being told repeatedly not to read the weather forecast out of the tea leaves.

TC has been telling those nostradamuses for years not to divine Apple's business movements out of second hand info from suppliers, since nobody other than Apple understands their supply chain.

 

[Act3]

Not if you do the math. I don't have a spreadsheet yet, but my gut says of they sold 12.6% for each individual model, they couldn't reach the $800 asp.

I built a spreadsheet a few weeks ago that used the Nov breakdown percentages from cirp. I'll run some numbers tomorrow to compare with reality

I see someone else posted this thought.I guess the sales mix to get $800 but locking in that the X is the sales leader will be estimatable.

Ok shoot me cause my example was too extreme. Try it with other numbers such as larger storage 8’s and plus models.


If you sell 1 iPhone X and 1 iPhone 8, all base storage. What is your asp? Again this is all extreme. But it maybe safe to guess that the 8/8+/x phones are most popular in sales now.

 

[AppleScruff1]

They would, if they were consistently wrong, and their method involved reading the tea leaves – even after being told repeatedly not to read the weather forecast out of the tea leaves.

TC has been telling those nostradamuses for years not to divine Apple's business movements out of second hand info from suppliers, since nobody other than Apple understands their supply chain.

But it sure does get people talking and generates publicity.

 

[BuddyTronic]

There is a wise old saying, never put all your eggs in the same basket.

Thanks for saying it, I know.

But check this.

I acquired since 1993. I got through the "dot com" bubble crash no problem. I survived the 2008 crash no problem, in fact I bought more shares!

Liquid asset value of AAPL shares? I think it's around $50.00. So what kind of crash has to happen before I have some regrets.

I totally missed out on Amazon - they had no profits long ago, and now the P/E is too high, and I have always had this good thing going with AAPL. You know what my average cost per share is?

I missed out on Google also - my broker back in the day said to wait for it to pull back on the IPO when the shares were $85.00. Wow.

I can't lose - I am set.

The only time I sold shares was for a divorce, and even then I kept most of the shares and took a margin loan - haha!
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I’m guessing releasing the actual numbers would put a slight damper on Tim’s announcement. Can anyone explain coherently what Apple has to gain by not breaking down the numbers other than the lame not to show their hand to competitors excuse.

Nothing to gain if they DO - Just look how many writers are incapable of basic mathematics or any insight into the obvious?

 

[Baymowe335]

There is math that will work. My example was extreme. And leave the bruh **** out of it please.

And what is the selling price of the entry 8+ ? What about the price of the higher storage models of the other phones? All of it needs to be taken into account before a conclusion is drawn. Apple could be using a smokescreen with 8 models on market and even more with different prices for storage.

Tim said X is the best selling iPhone. Again, he can’t lie and ASP is pretty indicative of this fact. There are a lot of sub $650 models which probably sell pretty well, so there needs to be models significantly higher than $800 to have an overall average of $800.

X is clearly a success.

 

[AppleScruff1]

Thanks for saying it, I know.

But check this.

I acquired since 1993. I got through the "dot com" bubble crash no problem. I survived the 2008 crash no problem, in fact I bought more shares!

Liquid asset value of AAPL shares? I think it's around $50.00. So what kind of crash has to happen before I have some regrets.

I totally missed out on Amazon - they had no profits long ago, and now the P/E is too high, and I have always had this good thing going with AAPL. You know what my average cost per share is?

I missed out on Google also - my broker back in the day said to wait for it to pull back on the IPO when the shares were $85.00. Wow.

I can't lose - I am set.

The only time I sold shares was for a divorce, and even then I kept the shares and took a margin loan - haha!

I don't doubt that you've done well. Especially if you bought in 1993.

 

[dotnet]

But it sure does get people talking and generates publicity.

It sure does. I'm just wondering how long it will take people to cotton up to this, that the "analyst's" product is not analysis but clicks and publicity.

 

[AppleScruff1]

It sure does. I'm just wondering how long it will take people to cotton up to this, that the "analyst's" product is not analysis but clicks and publicity.

The hard core people know, the average Joe may never know or care enough to learn more.

 

[BuddyTronic]

They would, if they were consistently wrong, and their method involved reading the tea leaves – even after being told repeatedly not to read the weather forecast out of the tea leaves.

TC has been telling those nostradamuses for years not to divine Apple's business movements out of second hand info from suppliers, since nobody other than Apple understands their supply chain.

Agreed, and they would get fired or jailed if they told the world that "Tornadoes" are coming watch out!

That's what Nikkei Asian News has tried to do last year and this year. It's a smear campaign or whatever you wanna call it. It's Lies. The more we call it out here the better.
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The hard core people know, the average Joe may never know or care enough to learn more.

It's that "average Joe" that influences idiots like that BMO Apple specialist on CNBC today. What a fool. All he did was cite the Nikkei Asian News article pretty much. No actual thoughts in his head IMHO. But he is complicit to the overall plan to smear AAPL during the "silent period" just before earnings when Apple is not allowed to respond. Cheap Shots!

Was the BMO guy in on it? Doesn't even matter.

Is "average Joe" in on it? No - certainly not - but it adds to the environment of building up a false reality where the next guy can erroneously assume things as a starting premise to influence the minds of investors. I certainly see the results! Pick a story on CNN for example. How often do they start off by saying "Without a doubt" or "we know this as fact" - but if you examine it, there is definitely room for some doubt if you have an intellect above a 14-year-old. And if start off with a "known fact" - you can also doubt that if you are without bias, and investigate and see that there are few things that are really agreed by all sides to be a "fact"

 

[Act3]

Tim said X is the best selling iPhone. Again, he can’t lie and ASP is pretty indicative of this fact. There are a lot of sub $650 models which probably sell pretty well, so there needs to be models significantly higher than $800 to have an overall average of $800.

X is clearly a success.

No it isn’t clear. How well does the $799 8+ sell along with the $949 8+ for those that want 256? Both above the $796.

The 8 256 itself is above the $796.

And for the x to be priced at $999. Quite a few lower priced phones had to been sold as well to bring average to $796. Maybe they sold a lot of older SE and 6s models to do that. Again we don’t know. All speculation.

 

[saudade]

Lol I was getting told I was an idiot

Dud u sure is 4 that?

 

[BuddyTronic]

I don't doubt that you've done well. Especially if you bought in 1993.

Yes, I have been an Apple fan boy since 1979 and my first Apple IIe

So to me - I just don't see why I would want to buy oil company stocks, or copper mining, or Pharma stocks. The few that I dabbled in paled in comparison to what I was doing by buying AAPL.

Many people discouraged me..

Told me 15 years ago I needed an "Exit Strategy"

"Trees do not grow to the moon"

"Go away in May"

I been around the block.

I love Jim Cramer, but when he says "Are you diversified, I often raise my arm and say Booya - Hell No!"

 

[Ladybug]

Legitimizes decision to purchase or not an iphone?

Perhaps so. I just buy what I want regardless what others think lol.

 

[AJ5790]

Mmm what is a CEO going to say its a bust?

Mmm what? Is a CEO going to lie on a quarterly earnings report when that is fraud?

 

[AppleScruff1]

Yes, I have been an Apple fan boy since 1979 and my first Apple IIe

So to me - I just don't see why I would want to buy oil company stocks, or copper mining, or Pharma stocks. The few that I dabbled in paled in comparison to what I was doing by buying AAPL.

Many people discouraged me..

Told me 15 years ago I needed an "Exit Strategy"

"Trees do not grow to the moon"

"Go away in May"

I been around the block.

I love Jim Cramer, but when he says "Are you diversified, I often raise my arm and say Booya - Hell No!"

You really can't lose. Kudos to you for making a wise investment.

 

[AJ5790]

When your line-up consists of offering 8 different devices, it’s not hard for your most recent device to be the top selling one. Tim said it himself, the truth is in the long game, not a single 90 day period... let’s wait until we’re 365 days in and see where iPhone sales are then before declaring it a success or failure.

We’re almost 4000 days in. iPhone sales are a success.

 

[tooloud10]

Mister Cook, during Cyber Monday, I bought a few echo dots. Less then 39,- each.

For 39, I don't get the HomePod. I Just get the extended warranty for the HomePod.

Apple has failed. Apple keeps falling. Hear our warning calls. Start developing decent products for decent prices.

Sorry to break the news to you, but the $39 Echo Dot buyer is not Apple's target market for the HomePod. They're making more money doing it their way.

 

[AJ5790]

Ok, that's what I thought it meant. Is this any different from prior releases? Doesn't the most recent model usually outsell older models that are still for sale?

Yes it’s different. One of the models was only a month old and the best selling phone was priced starting at $1000.
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I have yet to see one in the county I live in.

I see them every day, in different peoples hands at my local Starbucks, grocery store, etc. that’s how anecdotal experiences work.
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They have for Q2. The “Gotta Have It” period has ended. Hence Q2 quidance reduced to $62 Billion, from Q1’s $87 Billion. Q2, 3, and 4 of 2018 will be far more representative of the iPhones stamina. 2018 will be the most critical period since SJ passed. They must be able to sustain their margins and revenue with continued services growth, and continued Mac growth. It’s foolish to take Q1 as anything representative of Fiscal 2018 if you look outward and do your research.

YoY Q2 growth according to Apple’s guidance is in the double digits. It’s foolish to take analysts expectations about Apple’s projected revenue in Q2 when iPhone is in an unprecedented time, and Apple’s Q1 guidance had a huge range and was low.

 

[ftaok]

Ok shoot me cause my example was too extreme. Try it with other numbers such as larger storage 8’s and plus models.


If you sell 1 iPhone X and 1 iPhone 8, all base storage. What is your asp? Again this is all extreme. But it maybe safe to guess that the 8/8+/x phones are most popular in sales now.

No shooting necessary.

Anyways, in the spreadsheet I had used 70/30 split for 64/256. I used the cirp November numbers because that's all I had available.

And I used US retail prices because I know them and I was putting a quick spreadsheet together and didn't feel like looking up prices all over the world. I'll leave that to Horace.

Add - I found my post from 02JAN. I had estimated an ASP of $786. That's pretty good for a back of the envelope calc.

Here's the original post. https://forums.macrumors.com/posts/25662897/

And a screen shot of the spreadsheet.
https://forums.macrumors.com/attachments/capture-png.744885/

 

[AJ5790]

I’m guessing releasing the actual numbers would put a slight damper on Tim’s announcement. Can anyone explain coherently what Apple has to gain by not breaking down the numbers other than the lame not to show their hand to competitors excuse.

What do their competitors have to gain by not even releasing any sales figures?

 

[dotnet]

Mister Cook, during Cyber Monday, I bought a few echo dots. Less then 39,- each.

For 39, I don't get the HomePod. I Just get the extended warranty for the HomePod.

Yeah, I sent a stern letter to Akio Toyoda, along the same lines. I told him that when I go to my local supermarket I get to use a shopping trolley for free. How dare he charge me $20k for a Corolla?

Hear our warning calls.

"Our" warning calls? Is there a posting collective behind your forum name? Do you have voices in your head? You're not QEII by any chance?

 

[CWallace]

I’m guessing releasing the actual numbers would put a slight damper on Tim’s announcement.

Of course, if the actual numbers showed the iPhone X being the most popular, the pundits and this forum would explode with "Apple were idiots to release the iPhone 8, too. They should have just launched the X as their only phone and sold it starting at $899."

Of course, Apple probably could not have manufactured anywhere near 75 million iPhone X's in the quarter, but hey...

 

[AJ5790]

I have over 2 dozen friends that have iPhones. Only one of them has an iPhone X. Half of everyone else upgraded to an iPhone 8. The rest are still using iPhone 6 and 7.

Additionally, I have not seen one single iPhone X out in the wild.

I see them all the time. Anecdotes are not facts. Why is this so difficult. We live in a world with billions of people. Any one person’s experience is not indicative of objective reality.

 

[BuddyTronic]

They don't break down sales to individual models, "but trust us... X topped the charts EVERY week (gleaming ping from Tim's tooth)!". Yeah frickin' right.

If only non-Apple companies could get away w/ such blatant secrecy, partial lies & spin. This company's arrogance & contempt for its users is sickening, to me.

It is almost absolutely certainly true what he said.

Tim Cook is worth big bucks. It's not worth breaking the law and lying and going to jail for such nonsense I don't think.

He is above lying in this regard.

I'd say you should get some rose-tinted glasses and instead assume that he is not lying and see how it goes.