Do you think the market can sustain four gaming companies?
Sony, Nintendo, Microsoft and Apple? What if Google gets into the mix too? (They fumbled with Google TV, but it could be adapted and done properly.)
I think Nintendo represents the "Casual" side of gaming, both with the DS line and the Wii. Nintendo dominated portables for many years. Since the launch of the original Gameboy, no one could really challenge Nintendo's dominance.
But now, there are two new ways to enjoy portable gaming... Android and iOS.
Just as Radio is still around after Television, it's possible that Nintendo can survive Apple's entry into gaming. Yet, will Nintendo be the dominate player? In what scenario do they stay #1? If iOS is real competition in portable gaming (DS line) and in home gaming (Wii) is threatened by Apple TV / iPad, I think that looks like there are some real challenges ahead for Nintendo.
The 3DS is a surprise to me, as it's fairly expensive for a Nintendo portable. Why spend $250 on a 3DS when an iPod Touch starts at $229? Sure... it depends on your preferences, but the iPod Touch / iPhone is a successful alternative. This isn't the same battle the Gameboy faced against the Sega's Nomad / Game Gear, the Turbo Express Portable or Atari Lynx. In addition to hardware, the software can be cheaper on iOS / Android too.
Game ratings on iOS start at 4 and up.
Games for the 3DS start at 7 and up. It's harder to market a product when there are warnings about vision.
http://www.nintendo.com/consumer/systems/3ds/en_na/health_safety.jsp
What happens this Christmas if Apple decides to launch an Apple TV that plays games... for $99? In these tough economic times, I think that's a serious threat to Nintendo.
So, Nintendo's portable line is under attack... both from Sony/Android and now Apple. Nintendo's console market is also under attack, as the Wii appears to be losing steam. If Apple enters the market with a $100 system, that's serious competition.
Here's a story... I was asked to make a recommendation for a gift. This was a nice gift, something around $250. At first I looked at the Nintendo 3DS. I thought it would be a cool gift because it was new. Yet, there was a regional lockout issue and I'm not sure it's something that's really good for a kid. At least with an iPod Touch, there's more to do with it than just games. Sure... the Nintendo 3DS does more than just games, but I think that the iPod Touch is a much better overall device... FaceTime, web browsing, iOS development, books, utilities, entertainment. It says, "Hey, I want you to have fun... but I also want you to learn something and be productive."
I recommended the iPod Touch. But surprisingly, this was not the gift that was purchased. Instead, an Android tablet was purchased as the gift. Heh... Android... that would not have been my choice.
Yet, that's the changing market. With iOS and Android, there's a lot more competition in portable devices... and I think that will eventually spill into the livingroom with game consoles. It's new technology that threatens Nintendo.
I think the strength of Nintendo is their software line... Mario, Zelda and popular games like that. If Nintendo struggles with hardware, they could eventually become software exclusive. That doomsday scenario has been uttered for many years as Sony's entry into the market caused a lot of trouble for Nintendo. The company managed to turn things around with the DS and the Wii. Can Nintendo do it again when Apple is offering cheaper hardware, cheaper software?
One could argue about iOS games being mostly casual... and that the lack of a controller causes problems... but Apple can fix that problem if they so choose. With Game Center, and news like the one that started this thread, it shows that Apple is getting serious about gaming.
That's obviously big trouble for Nintendo.