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Apple's Plans to Release 5G iPhone in 2020 Could Be Stymied by Intel Delays
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Oh you are just too funny. That used to be the case but not anymore. Just look at the mess with MacBook keyboards.
Another one of those articles, from Bloomberg, and now FastCompany ( And previous UBS Report ) whose reporter have little knowledge in how Semi Conductor and Modem Design works.
1. Intel didn't need the Modem to fill up its Fab, it has been trying to get back into Modem business ever since the acquisition of Infineon in 2010. And Infineon went from one of the best modem supplier to near death under Intel's hand.
2. Intel needed Apple to get into Modem business with Volume. There isn't another client on the market that uses Standalone modem with sufficient volume. And their partnership with Spreadtrum never planned out.
3. It is not that Intel Modem had to prioritise Apple so they can't full fill other clients needs. The truth is Intel had no other modem clients. There isn't any one in the industry who want standalone modem, not even in Tablet and PC Space, And even if they do, Qualcomm offers a much more attractive package.
4. It was Intel's mis management on Fab Capacity. It has absolutely Zero relationship with Intel priorities Modem Orders over high margin CPU business. Their original plan was 10nm will be done in time, everything will move to 10nm while modem could use the 14nm. That didn't work out. And given Intel's rapid expansion of Fab Capacity in a very short space of time it only proves how out of touch their top management ( or BK, ex-CEO ) were.
5. Even in the case Apple had 1000 engineers by the end of 2017, the chances of an Apple Modem in iPhone for 2021 will be close to Zero. It isn't just about designing the modem that is hard, you need lots of field testing, collaboration with Huawei, Ericsson and Nokia and every MNO in the world to basically Trial and Error. It takes times for Qualcomm, it would take even longer for Apple.
6. Qualcomm, and now basically everybody else including Huawei and Samsung are all developing their modem while working on the latest Spec. I.e it is a constantly moving Goal Post. It is the only reason why you can have 3GPP Rel 15 Released this year, and have chip shipped to OEM within months while the first Consumer Product sold within 12 months.
7. In the best case scenario Apple had 1000 engineers working on modem in 2018, the likelihood they have something for iPhone is 2022, and even that pushing a lot of boundaries. A more realistic case would be 2023. And that is assuming their Modem will be good on their first try, which according history, no one, including Huawei, Samsung, Nvidia, Mediatek AND Qualcomm for WCDMA has successfully done so. And in the case it was good, I doubt it will be as good as Qualcomm.
8. I doubt Apple even had 1000 engineers working on modem as of now. They are certainly recruiting, but not in those numbers yet. The 1000-1200 number seems to be pulled out of previous article from Venturebeat [1] https://venturebeat.com/2015/10/16/intel-has-1000-people-working-on-chips-for-the-iphone/ . And because Modem / Wireless Engineers are scarce in the market. Getting enough people to work, again... takes time.
Edit: A Few more notes.
I would have thought Swan being CFO and a Financial guy would have counted pennies and be extremely conservatives. If anything Intel since BK left made lots of good changes. The hiring into Graphics, HPC. Recent announcement on FPGA, not very good but at least they are moving. Fab Expansion etc. So I think there is a lot of signs showing Intel is waking up. One possibilities for this article and recent rumours is that Intel thought the modem price to Apple were too low, compared to what Qualcomm were previously charging Apple. And it is likely Intel tries to hike the price of their 5G Modem while Apple is hardballing.
1. Intel didn't need the Modem to fill up its Fab, it has been trying to get back into Modem business ever since the acquisition of Infineon in 2010. And Infineon went from one of the best modem supplier to near death under Intel's hand.
2. Intel needed Apple to get into Modem business with Volume. There isn't another client on the market that uses Standalone modem with sufficient volume. And their partnership with Spreadtrum never planned out.
3. It is not that Intel Modem had to prioritise Apple so they can't full fill other clients needs. The truth is Intel had no other modem clients. There isn't any one in the industry who want standalone modem, not even in Tablet and PC Space, And even if they do, Qualcomm offers a much more attractive package.
4. It was Intel's mis management on Fab Capacity. It has absolutely Zero relationship with Intel priorities Modem Orders over high margin CPU business. Their original plan was 10nm will be done in time, everything will move to 10nm while modem could use the 14nm. That didn't work out. And given Intel's rapid expansion of Fab Capacity in a very short space of time it only proves how out of touch their top management ( or BK, ex-CEO ) were.
5. Even in the case Apple had 1000 engineers by the end of 2017, the chances of an Apple Modem in iPhone for 2021 will be close to Zero. It isn't just about designing the modem that is hard, you need lots of field testing, collaboration with Huawei, Ericsson and Nokia and every MNO in the world to basically Trial and Error. It takes times for Qualcomm, it would take even longer for Apple.
6. Qualcomm, and now basically everybody else including Huawei and Samsung are all developing their modem while working on the latest Spec. I.e it is a constantly moving Goal Post. It is the only reason why you can have 3GPP Rel 15 Released this year, and have chip shipped to OEM within months while the first Consumer Product sold within 12 months.
7. In the best case scenario Apple had 1000 engineers working on modem in 2018, the likelihood they have something for iPhone is 2022, and even that pushing a lot of boundaries. A more realistic case would be 2023. And that is assuming their Modem will be good on their first try, which according history, no one, including Huawei, Samsung, Nvidia, Mediatek AND Qualcomm for WCDMA has successfully done so. And in the case it was good, I doubt it will be as good as Qualcomm.
8. I doubt Apple even had 1000 engineers working on modem as of now. They are certainly recruiting, but not in those numbers yet. The 1000-1200 number seems to be pulled out of previous article from Venturebeat [1] https://venturebeat.com/2015/10/16/intel-has-1000-people-working-on-chips-for-the-iphone/ . And because Modem / Wireless Engineers are scarce in the market. Getting enough people to work, again... takes time.
Edit: A Few more notes.
I would have thought Swan being CFO and a Financial guy would have counted pennies and be extremely conservatives. If anything Intel since BK left made lots of good changes. The hiring into Graphics, HPC. Recent announcement on FPGA, not very good but at least they are moving. Fab Expansion etc. So I think there is a lot of signs showing Intel is waking up. One possibilities for this article and recent rumours is that Intel thought the modem price to Apple were too low, compared to what Qualcomm were previously charging Apple. And it is likely Intel tries to hike the price of their 5G Modem while Apple is hardballing.
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I’ve come to understand that you yourself create these small animations, correct? Great work - most of them are quite clever! and you seem extremely quick, sometimes almost first comment plus an animation...Just wait for Intel to cancel the chips altogether, citing an inability achieve their high standards.
See if it's as gut-wrenching for you as it was for us…
May I ask what you do for a living and what software you use?
Might not be that important for stuff done on the phone directly but still you can tether the phone to a MacBook when WiFi isn’t available.
I'm afraid they won't go to Qualcomm to get a 5G modem for 2020, and I don't know if Apple is ready with its own modem. Shipping an iPhone with 4G in 2019 is fine, missing the 2020 deadline would be bad, at least from a marketing perspective. Maybe Intel will be ready, otherwise they'll have to go find another supplier.
I do think there's still a possibility they can settle with Qualcomm, but only if some court rules in favour of Apple and Qualcomm loses his cases and is forced to review the royalties and provide Apple with modems. It should happen in a few months though, so I find it unlikely.
That's a bummer for ourself as customers. Qualcomm clearly has better modems than Intel, Apple is right about making its own modems, as cellular is in most of product they sell (iPhone, iPad, Watch and maybe Mac in the future...) but until they're not ready they ought to stick with the best third party supplier.
They may eventually win their legal battle, but that's good for them, not for the customers
I do think there's still a possibility they can settle with Qualcomm, but only if some court rules in favour of Apple and Qualcomm loses his cases and is forced to review the royalties and provide Apple with modems. It should happen in a few months though, so I find it unlikely.
That's a bummer for ourself as customers. Qualcomm clearly has better modems than Intel, Apple is right about making its own modems, as cellular is in most of product they sell (iPhone, iPad, Watch and maybe Mac in the future...) but until they're not ready they ought to stick with the best third party supplier.
They may eventually win their legal battle, but that's good for them, not for the customers
I don’t see any problem with that. Maybe by that time the network will be in place to actually be useful.
While of course, it would be lovely to have 5G...
1. Even by 2021, there won't be widespread 5g. Barely 4g outside of a lot of cities.
2. The networks aren't that bothered about it until it becomes a competitive disadvantage. In the UK which is a perfect example of a contained rollout, in 2003 everywhere was 2g still - the company "Three" only operated and invested heavily in 3g - forcing the other networks to catch up. Vodafone, Orange and 02 would have happily stayed on 2g for a few more years as the 3g equipment/installation cost was massive at rollout (I know this as my uncle was the MD of Vodafone) but three was grabbing all the new customers.
3. I am currently getting 15-70mb depending on the area on 4G... I'd love to know what people will be doing with that massive theoretical 5G speed on a mobile phone. Stream 8k Porn? The only actual use I can see would be to connect to a laptop... I am aware of all the other 5g benefits - the number of users per cell etc - but not had an issue with that in years with LTE - even at huge concerts etc.
1. Even by 2021, there won't be widespread 5g. Barely 4g outside of a lot of cities.
2. The networks aren't that bothered about it until it becomes a competitive disadvantage. In the UK which is a perfect example of a contained rollout, in 2003 everywhere was 2g still - the company "Three" only operated and invested heavily in 3g - forcing the other networks to catch up. Vodafone, Orange and 02 would have happily stayed on 2g for a few more years as the 3g equipment/installation cost was massive at rollout (I know this as my uncle was the MD of Vodafone) but three was grabbing all the new customers.
3. I am currently getting 15-70mb depending on the area on 4G... I'd love to know what people will be doing with that massive theoretical 5G speed on a mobile phone. Stream 8k Porn? The only actual use I can see would be to connect to a laptop... I am aware of all the other 5g benefits - the number of users per cell etc - but not had an issue with that in years with LTE - even at huge concerts etc.
Apple couldn’t think clearly because short term financial gain takes priority. Just pay Qualcomm patent fee while working on your own chip. Make your own in two to three years, and then ditch Qualcomm.
Actually, i'd rather a mobile service to support 5G service first, before the phone came out.... This would mean i'd have a 5G phone for few years that i can only connect at LTE...Not good
The problem with this argument, harks back to the classic statement of, I don't need a car, and don't see the point, as my horse is great and horses currently do all the things we need.
Classic thing to say, which as time goes by demonstrated how this is generally not a good stance to take.
It depends on how long do you keep your iPhone. If you are on the IUP and change the phone each and every year not having 5G in 2020 isn't a big deal. If you keep the phone for 3-4 years chances are 5G will be widely available while you're still using that phone.
To me actually it isn't a real problem. I change mine every other year, and 4G is still great so I don't think I'd miss 5G in 2021, I don't even know how the coverage will be in my country.
Not having 5G in 2020 would be really bad for marketing though. Every major player in the smartphone market will have 5G models by then, and Apple would be the only one left with 4G. That's ok in 2019, not so great in 2020.
I read 2021:-
https://appleinsider.com/articles/1...1-prospects-for-5g-iphone-in-2020-in-jeopardy
At least for the "modem" part
https://appleinsider.com/articles/1...1-prospects-for-5g-iphone-in-2020-in-jeopardy
At least for the "modem" part
Anyone knows how to get a kickstarter going? 5G cases for iPhone, available for X, XR, XS, XS Max and whatever is launched in 2019 using the lightning port and Qualcomm chips?
Intel is having trouble meeting deadlines for the XMM 8160 5G modem that Apple is counting on to add 5G connectivity to its 2020 iPhone lineup, reports Fast Company.
Citing a source with knowledge of Intel and Apple's relationship, Fast Company says that Intel has been missing developmental deadlines on the 5G chip, leading Apple to lose confidence in Intel.
For a September 2020 launch, sample chips need to be provided to Apple this summer, and a finished modem design needs to be available by the beginning of 2020. Intel has said its chips will be in mobile devices by 2020, and has plans to ship the 8160 5G chip in the second half of 2019, but it's not clear if it will make those target dates.
Apple began using Intel chips alongside Qualcomm chips with the launch of the iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus, and in 2018, Intel was Apple's exclusive LTE chip supplier for the iPhone XR, XS, and XS Max following Apple's legal woes with Qualcomm.
Rumors have suggested that Apple is planning to introduce 5G connectivity in the iPhone in 2020 and is relying on Intel's chips to do so.
Intel and Apple's relationship is said to be tense, and on the Intel side, there have already been three project managers overseeing the development of the modem. Apple has been holding talks with Samsung and Mediatek about supplying modem chips in the near term, but neither company may have chips ready for 2020.
Fast Company's source says that it would make the most business sense for Apple to go back to Qualcomm, but given the ever-increasing legal tensions between the two companies, that seems unlikely.
Apple is preparing to develop its own modem chips in house so that it doesn't need to rely on either Intel or Qualcomm, but those chips are not going to be ready in time for a 2020 5G iPhone launch.
Article Link: Apple's Plans to Release 5G iPhone in 2020 Could Be Stymied by Intel Delays
Honestly, I agree with the sentiment here. There's no way 5G will be ready for prime time in 2020 from any major carrier and it's safety is a huge question. Neither AT&T, Verizon, T-mobile or Sprint are anywhere close to launching nationwide; Q1 2021 is optimistic.
LTE is more than most people currently need and the speeds I'm getting on the XS Max on T-mobile have improved since the iPhone X and I'm sure will only get better.
Heck, if people start moving over to 5G, doesn't that mean more LTE bandwidth for customers?
LTE is more than most people currently need and the speeds I'm getting on the XS Max on T-mobile have improved since the iPhone X and I'm sure will only get better.
Heck, if people start moving over to 5G, doesn't that mean more LTE bandwidth for customers?
IMO, if Apple doesn't have 5G phones next, no big deal. If you look at current 4G, it's fine, however, the big problem is coverage. If the coverage for 4G is lacking, just think it will be quite a while before 5G provide sufficient coverage and most likely the large cities will see it first.
What makes you think a company with zero modem building experience will come-up with a top class product?
