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Coronavirus (Covid-19) informational thread
- Thread starter yaxomoxay
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Almost any coffee/government building/restaurant offer this to anyone. Some require a direct pin/permission key, but at least it’s ‘free’.
Right now we are living in the one of the worst period in humanity's history. No disease had immediate and effective damage to humans in such short period of time like corona virus.
What is frightening me at this point is that the US is currently tracking almost exactly 11 days behind Italy in terms of total number of cases.
Of course, I'm not sure that the absolute number of cases can be directly compared because the US is both more populous and spread over a much larger geographic area. In addition, from what I've seen(without having the exact break-downs at hand) Italy's initial cases seemed to be mostly confined to one particular "hot spot". While the US does have some isolated hot spots, cases are by and large spread out over the country.
Still, though, the US today has 3,046 cases, where Italy had 3,089 on 3/4. On Friday, the US had 2,247 cases as compared to 2,036 in Italy on 3/2.
If the trend holds, that may indicate over 10K cases in the US by next weekend(Italy-10,149 on 3/10). I am hopeful that people in the US take "flattening the curve" seriously and slow the growth of those numbers down.
For myself, I'm going to be taking serious measures to limit my contact outside home. It's going to be a miserable couple of weeks for someone who normally looks forward to getting up, going to work, going out and about, etc but it's what I can do personally. The statistics tell me that if I caught it, I'd be anything from asymptomatic to having something like a bad case of the flu that I'd recover from(32 years old with no underlying medical conditions) but I don't want to be the person who spreads it to others.
Of course, I'm not sure that the absolute number of cases can be directly compared because the US is both more populous and spread over a much larger geographic area. In addition, from what I've seen(without having the exact break-downs at hand) Italy's initial cases seemed to be mostly confined to one particular "hot spot". While the US does have some isolated hot spots, cases are by and large spread out over the country.
Still, though, the US today has 3,046 cases, where Italy had 3,089 on 3/4. On Friday, the US had 2,247 cases as compared to 2,036 in Italy on 3/2.
If the trend holds, that may indicate over 10K cases in the US by next weekend(Italy-10,149 on 3/10). I am hopeful that people in the US take "flattening the curve" seriously and slow the growth of those numbers down.
For myself, I'm going to be taking serious measures to limit my contact outside home. It's going to be a miserable couple of weeks for someone who normally looks forward to getting up, going to work, going out and about, etc but it's what I can do personally. The statistics tell me that if I caught it, I'd be anything from asymptomatic to having something like a bad case of the flu that I'd recover from(32 years old with no underlying medical conditions) but I don't want to be the person who spreads it to others.
Yeah, I was just reading a Tweet exchange with a researcher, and they said the next 10-14 days is HIGHLY critical in terms of containment, spread, and is recommending as much isolation as possible, combined with (in the slightly longer term) creating "isolation groups", i.e., people who have been isolated and had enough time to present symptoms. Their concern is the sudden surge that overwhelms medical systems, and they're using Italy as a model (since like you pointed out, the cases are tracking very similar).
What is it with year # "20" we get a plaque around the world.
1720 we had Great plaque of Marseille ? 100 000 + deaths
1820 Cholera pandemic 100 000 + deaths
1920 Spanish flu, largest influena pandemic. Kills millions.
Lastly
2020 Corona virus ???
Notice how every 100 years on year 20 a Virus strikes?
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Here is an example
1720 we had Great plaque of Marseille ? 100 000 + deaths
1820 Cholera pandemic 100 000 + deaths
1920 Spanish flu, largest influena pandemic. Kills millions.
Lastly
2020 Corona virus ???
Notice how every 100 years on year 20 a Virus strikes?
[automerge]1584286773[/automerge]
Here is an example
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Bubonic plague 1320 China... It took 20 years to get over to Europe.What is it with year # "20" we get a plaque around the world.
1720 we had Great plaque of Marseille ? 100 000 + deaths
1820 Cholera pandemic 100 000 + deaths
1920 Spanish flu, largest influena pandemic. Kills millions.
Lastly
2020 Corona virus ???
Notice how every 100 years on year 20 a Virus strikes?
[automerge]1584286773[/automerge]
Here is an example
The Arrival and Spread of the Black Plague in Europe
The Black Death claimed the lives of nearly 100 million people as it moved through Asia and Europe during the 14th century.
Bubonic plague 1320 China... It took 20 years to get over to Europe.
The Arrival and Spread of the Black Plague in Europe
The Black Death claimed the lives of nearly 100 million people as it moved through Asia and Europe during the 14th century.www.thoughtco.com
OMG 1320? ##20 again ? It can't be a coincident. Thanks Huntn.
would not put too much emphasis on that, as something to worry about.
Our universe, galaxy and world is massive, wide and mysterious so......anything is possible/nothing is impossible
lets stop there. For now....lets see what happens in 2320🕰Our universe, galaxy and world is massive, wide and mysterious so......anything is possible/nothing is impossible
If there's one thing I can promise you is impossible, it's that you'll be around to see what happens in 2320.
Well, it could be natural phenomena that occurs every 100 years to reduce the human race, i know i won't around in 2320 but anyone of us can predict what might occur years ahead.
The Astronomer Edmond Halley predicted one of the greatest phenomena when he said a comet will orbit the planet Earth after 75 years but he died before he could see his prediction.
Ohio Governor Mike DeWine just shut down all restaurants and bars in the State as from 9pm tonight. Carryout & Delivery only as from tomorrow.
Harsh, but probably required.
Harsh, but probably required.
Number of cases and deaths here in Washington state continues to grow. Now at 643 cases, and 40 dead. The numbers just keep going up every day.
This puts pressure now on Indiana to follow suite. My hope is that DeWine has started something good here.
Already some of our local family owned restaurants have announced delivery and take out plans. Our plan is to take advantage of these as much as possible to help support them in this dire need.
I disagree with the numbers stated, about minute 36 he talks numbers with flu being 1% and corona 2-3%. that number is coming from the known number of infected
Coronavirus Update (Live): 130,775,239 Cases and 2,849,547 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
www.worldometers.info
6500 deaths TOTAL GLOBALLY, I disagree with the 169,357 infected as the symptoms are so mild and plenty don't even go to get tested because if it.
deaths in the US by flu were about 60k, Corona is at less than 7 k in the entire world.
I’m so impressed by the patient, quiet, considerate and resourceful pulling together that I see going on around me. Must have been like this among ordinary Brits during the Battle of Britain.
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Saw this very simple model somewhere:
If assume:
- Mortality rate of 1%
- One person infects two
- Doubling rate of 5 days
Then:
- If one person dies on day 20,
- 20 days earlier, on day 1, 100 were infected.
- Five days later 200 infected.
- At day 20, the day the person died, 1600 were infected, far more than the numbers indicated by selective testing.
Lower mortality rate means many more were infected.
Shorter doubling rate means many more were infected.
Effective social distancing can help to drop the rate of doubling.
[automerge]1584316184[/automerge]
Saw this very simple model somewhere:
If assume:
- Mortality rate of 1%
- One person infects two
- Doubling rate of 5 days
Then:
- If one person dies on day 20,
- 20 days earlier, on day 1, 100 were infected.
- Five days later 200 infected.
- At day 20, the day the person died, 1600 were infected, far more than the numbers indicated by selective testing.
Lower mortality rate means many more were infected.
Shorter doubling rate means many more were infected.
Effective social distancing can help to drop the rate of doubling.
I made a statement upthread about how the US seems to be tracking Italy roughly 1 day behind.
That was based on a chart I've seen circulated around the internet by Dr. Eric Baron of the Cleveland Clinic.
If the numbers from this site are to be believed:
www.worldometers.info
The US is, as of 9:00PM EDT on March 15th, at 3,715 cases reported, which puts us where Italy was on 3/5(3,858). Of course, at this stage, testing is only beginning to ramp up in the US so seeing a big jump(nearly double) from one day to the next makes me wonder if it's more a result of more widespread testing roll out rather than a true spread. Whatever the case, the number is still seemingly low in the US and I just hope that the increasingly stringent measures being put into place to encourage social distancing will slow the spread of it.
The Governor of Kentucky has been having daily press conferences since the first case was reported in the state(3/6, which seems an eternity ago). Kentucky is now reporting 20 cases. I mentioned earlier that one had been discharged completely cured. The governor indicated today that one case did not look promising so I suspect that in the next day or two, the state will report its first death. I have to say that-politics aside(I did not vote for the Governor back in November)-I have been VERY impressed with his calm, rational, and cool handling of the situation since it began. I think that because of the way he has handled it, most everything he has offered as a suggestion(not an order) has been followed relatively well.
Also of small note and purely anecdotal-I spoke with a friend this evening who I had last seen around the end of January. He told me that he and his wife both had been terribly sick for about a week and a half, including a a cough and shortness of breath, around the first part of February. They were both tested negative for the flu, so were sent along and are fine now. He's wondering if they had it. Around the same time they were sick, I had a small respiratory bug that I thought was probably allergies/sinuses or maybe a mild cold. My fiancé was a bit sicker with something similar probably a week after I had it(we hadn't seen each other in the interim). It makes me wonder if those friends, my fiancé, and I have all had cases of it, although we'll likely never know.
That was based on a chart I've seen circulated around the internet by Dr. Eric Baron of the Cleveland Clinic.
If the numbers from this site are to be believed:
United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info
The US is, as of 9:00PM EDT on March 15th, at 3,715 cases reported, which puts us where Italy was on 3/5(3,858). Of course, at this stage, testing is only beginning to ramp up in the US so seeing a big jump(nearly double) from one day to the next makes me wonder if it's more a result of more widespread testing roll out rather than a true spread. Whatever the case, the number is still seemingly low in the US and I just hope that the increasingly stringent measures being put into place to encourage social distancing will slow the spread of it.
The Governor of Kentucky has been having daily press conferences since the first case was reported in the state(3/6, which seems an eternity ago). Kentucky is now reporting 20 cases. I mentioned earlier that one had been discharged completely cured. The governor indicated today that one case did not look promising so I suspect that in the next day or two, the state will report its first death. I have to say that-politics aside(I did not vote for the Governor back in November)-I have been VERY impressed with his calm, rational, and cool handling of the situation since it began. I think that because of the way he has handled it, most everything he has offered as a suggestion(not an order) has been followed relatively well.
Also of small note and purely anecdotal-I spoke with a friend this evening who I had last seen around the end of January. He told me that he and his wife both had been terribly sick for about a week and a half, including a a cough and shortness of breath, around the first part of February. They were both tested negative for the flu, so were sent along and are fine now. He's wondering if they had it. Around the same time they were sick, I had a small respiratory bug that I thought was probably allergies/sinuses or maybe a mild cold. My fiancé was a bit sicker with something similar probably a week after I had it(we hadn't seen each other in the interim). It makes me wonder if those friends, my fiancé, and I have all had cases of it, although we'll likely never know.
The race to find a coronavirus treatment: One strategy might be just weeks away, scientists say
Researchers are already suggesting strategies that may help treat thousands of coronavirus patients. One could be just weeks away.
www.usatoday.com
I watched this about a week ago and absolutely recommend this to anyone. I shared that same video with colleagues, and you can definitely learn something. What I took away from the video, is the amount of misconceptions that others continue to project. It’s not so much what we already know to how combat this in terms of proper hygiene, distancing, isolation, ect. It’s also separating fact v.s. fiction on ones belief of what they rely on poorly sourced material, I don’t understand why others simply rely on ‘hear-say’ v.s. Determining what’s actually effective. Example: Such as wearing standardized mask, they don’t do anything, and they’re not even the proper PPE mask for this type of C/19 scenario.
Anyways, it’s Ok to not have a direct source like knowing a Doctor, or believing what you hear in the media, but we have the power of the Internet at our fingertips, and Osterholm is a legit source to help clear the misconceptions.