Coronavirus (Covid-19) informational thread

[theluggage]

I'm just really surprised to see the world's reaction to this. Yes, it's a contagious virus, it's pretty deadly

Thing is, it seems to be about as "deadly" as regular flu which kills half a million people (albeit mainly sick/elderly ones) a year worldwide, causes huge productivity losses due to sick days, places a huge seasonal load on health services etc. and is only partially mitigated by the availability of a vaccine. Yet not only do we not close schools and factories, cancel events or restrict travel to reduce the spread of flu, we're bombarded with irresponsible adverts for zombie pills that let you stagger into work for that important meeting and share your bugs with your colleagues... Meanwhile, the flu vaccination program is mainly targeted at vulnerable people only, whereas a mass vaccination program could hugely slow the spread of the disease and invoke herd immunity which also protects people who can't take the vaccine or for whom it isn't effective.

So, while taking proportionate measures to stop COVID-19 circulating as well as the regular flu - and stopping a double whammy on health service resources - is perfectly reasonable, it begs the questions of what is 'proportionate' and how do we justify taking such expensive (and risky) precautionary measures for C19 while being completely complacent about regular flu?

The answer is that regular flu has been there for a long, long time so our attitude is what it is, and we see it as an acceptable risk. COVID-19, however, is new, which is always scary, and that puts a lot of pressure on authorities and politicians to be seen to be doing something just in case C19 has a nasty surprise in store.

Also, individuals may need to understand that their personal risk from C19 is tiny, and if they do get it it will most likely be a mild annoyance like any other cold/flu bug, and that the precautions are really about protecting the minority of vulnerable people - a civilised thing to do, but not a justification for treating people from affected areas like lepers.

Of course, the media also needs to grow up and (for example) when a scientific advisor says that they are considering the effectiveness of cancelling large public gatherings, or that their worst-case scenario is 80% infection, not print headlines like "80% of people may get coronavirus!!! Football matches could be cancelled!!!!!" accompanied by pictures of people in hazmat suits, petri dishes with purple blobs, subway passengers wearing masks (with the fact that they don't help much buried away in a footnote) etc.

NB: when the dust has settled (and is being vacuumed up by people in bunny suits) it will be interesting to see what the figures are for regular flu what with everybody not wanting to travel and obsessively washing their hands... Maybe we should think twice about all these unnecessary international conferences and casual international travel - Greta would be pleased and even if you don't buy global warming, they're not making oil any more and it would be nice to leave some for the grandkids...

 

[jeyf]

if your male, retired, Coronavirus is NOT being blown out of proportion.
seems the risk accelerates if your >40years old

some approximate math, if your a 40 year old male
⅔ of the population is younger than you

leaving ⅓ dead from the Coronavirus, go figure

 

[Gregg2]

For myself, waiting for the first reported Houston, Texas infection and then I might be wearing a mask in public.

The CDC does not want people without symptoms wearing masks that are needed for those with the virus, and those treating them. You will not protect yourself. You will potentially put others in harm's way.

 

[Huntn]

The CDC does not want people without symptoms wearing masks that are needed for those with the virus, and those treating them. You will not protect yourself. You will potentially put others in harm's way.

I‘ve been reading and agree. However, what happens when you are on an airplane surrounded by other people and you get coughed on? I wonder what the chances are that a mask would help prevent inhaling the water droplets propelled by a sneeze or cough?

Should you wear a face mask to protect against coronavirus?

Should you wear a face mask to protect against coronavirus?

The CDC has asked Americans to be prepared for the COVID-19 illness to spread in the United States.

news.yahoo.com

"Facemasks should be used by people who show symptoms of COVID-19 to help prevent the spread of the disease to others," the CDC's website says. "The use of facemasks is also crucial for health workers and people who are taking care of someone in close settings (at home or in a health care facility)."

The U.S. Surgeon General put it even more emphatically, tweeting: "Seriously people — STOP BUYING MASKS!"
————————————————

Of interest, I just had a disagreement with my wife of what constitutes airborne transmission.
This article says coronovirus is not airborne:

Can the new coronavirus spread through the air?
There’s no evidence – but it’s still possible.

Airborne: Can COVID-19 spread through the air?

There’s no evidence – but it’s still possible.

cosmosmagazine.com

However, the following article defines airborne disease as any transmission through the air, regardless if is is short range such as a particles propelled through the air by a cough, versus particles that can stay airborne for longer than an hour:

Airborne Disease

Airborne transmission - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

An airborne disease is any disease that is caused by pathogens that can be transmitted through the air by both small, dry particles, and as larger liquid droplets[1]. Such diseases include many of considerable importance both in human and veterinary medicine. The relevant pathogens may be viruses, bacteria, or fungi, and they may be spread through breathing, talking, coughing, sneezing, raising of dust, spraying of liquids, toilet flushing or any activities which generates aerosol particles or droplets. Human airborne diseases do not include conditions caused by air pollution such as Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs), gases and any airborne particles.

So if you look at transmission, I think it’s wrong to say this is not airborne, if you can be sneezed on and get it, while acknowledging it’s not a case of pathogens that can stay airborne for hours.

Any health care professionals care to weigh in on this distinction?
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Why are you surprised? 100,000 plus people infected in weeks or couple of months, 3000 + plus dead, its spreading very fast all around the world, its very contagious and not much is known about it.
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Its probably the "black death" of our time.

I think it’s too early to describe it that way.

 

[decafjava]

if your male, retired, Coronavirus is NOT being blown out of proportion.
seems the risk accelerates if your >40years old

some approximate math, if your a 40 year old male
⅔ of the population is younger than you

leaving ⅓ dead from the Coronavirus, go figure

Very approximate.

 

[jeyf]

CDC web site link
how Clovid-19 spreads

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.

www.cdc.gov

if you believe them, the CDC says:
if you are <6' from an infected person coughing seems you have to inhale air born particles. They dont know if it can be transmitted by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it. Would be nice if the CDC took the time to study transmission by surface touch.

not nuclear science, sounds to me like a face mask might help?
anyways seems there is a run on face masks.
if you do use a face mask good for you but change it often.

 

[Healer Flame]

Avoid gathering they saying

 

[jeyf]

reference the link:

How Long Can the Coronavirus Survive on Surfaces? | The Weather Channel

Scientists are working to better understand the new strain of coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

weather.com

"study published last month in the Journal of Hospital Infection showed that coronaviruses like those that caused SARS and MERS could survive for up to nine days on surfaces that have not been disinfected, including metal, glass or plastic"


could the Clovid-19 last 9 days?

 

[DotCom2]

reference the link:

How Long Can the Coronavirus Survive on Surfaces? | The Weather Channel

Scientists are working to better understand the new strain of coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

weather.com

"study published last month in the Journal of Hospital Infection showed that coronaviruses like those that caused SARS and MERS could survive for up to nine days on surfaces that have not been disinfected, including metal, glass or plastic"


could the Clovid-19 last 9 days?

Yes. I found data on the current strain (COVID-19) that said exactly that! 9 days! I had been wondering the very same thing. SCARY

 

[hull22]

One of the possible reasons why this coronavirus seems more deadly than the usual flu is that they usually test people who are moderate to severely ill for the virus. The reason I saw that is the vast majority of people are expected to have a mild illness. With the flu, if you have it, you feel pretty awful and know that you probably have the flu.

Mortality rate= deaths from disease/diagnosed cases of the disease

However, if they actually tested everyone who was mildly or minimal sick, the mortality rate would drop significantly.

Mortality rate=deaths from disease/(diagnosed cases+undiagnosed mild cases of disease)

 

[ThisBougieLife]

My high school (that I graduated from four years ago) just closed and they are going to "deep clean" the entire campus (a staff member had close contact with a relative with CV). Just keeps getting closer and closer to home...

 

[4sallypat]

Yes. I found data on the current strain (COVID-19) that said exactly that! 9 days! I had been wondering the very same thing. SCARY

Yes, the virus shape allows this strain to live longer on surfaces similar to bacteria with it's capsulation...

As for the really scary part: there are super spreaders who are asymptomatic and spreads the virus unknowingly to many others around them.

Time to head for the hills, caves, atolls, and the moon ?

 

[jkcerda]

people are panicking over this and some are desperate enough to trade sex for food, it's crazy.
anyways I got a Klondike bar...........

 

[2984839]

people are panicking over this and some are desperate enough to trade sex for food, it's crazy.
anyways I got a Klondike bar...........

I'm still panicking over swine flu from 2009. Better safe than sorry.

 

[Healer Flame]

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[jkcerda]

God people are stupid

Deputies respond to Chino Hills Costco after shoppers become upset over bottled water shortage: SBSD

As shoppers stock up on critical supplies amid concerns of a coronavirus outbreak, law enforcement responded to a Costco in Chino Hills Thursday morning after a run on bottled water left some custo…

ktla.com

Deputies respond to Chino Hills Costco after shoppers become upset over bottled water shortage: SBSD

there are OPTIONS people

anyways, I had to shoot my way out of costco last night after beating up 5 guys over 2 cases of water..........

 

[AustinIllini]

@jkcerda you know these messages count towards your post count?

 

[jeyf]

locally we got our 1st case; a family tested positive. they live in a well to do part of town. The couple had traveled to the NW and a cruse ship was involved.
the family will self quarantine. The school that the child attended closed down for de contamination.

maybe this is typical?

 

[smirking]

With the flu, if you have it, you feel pretty awful and know that you probably have the flu.

Not always true. The flu mutates and you have more aggresive and less aggressive strains. In fact, the H1N1 strain was only discovered to be way more mild than anyone imagined a couple of years after it was first seen by widespread serological studies that showed there were scores of people who were walking around with minimally symptomatic cases.

In any case, the Case Fatality Rate of a typical flu is way lower than the expected CFR of Covid19.

However, if they actually tested everyone who was mildly or minimal sick, the mortality rate would drop significantly.

I'm watching how the South Korea numbers break very eagerly for this very reason. They're the only ones who went nuts and implemented widespread testing. In one city they had drive thru testing stations setup. The people who die from this sometimes take weeks to perish and they only recently started aggressive testing so their ratio is being diluted by a high volume of new diagnoses.

By the end of this month, the South Korea numbers will have smoothed enough to give a more accurate picture of what the true CFR might be. Even at this early stage they've got a .06% CFR, which is up to 6x higher than this season's flu.

A just released study by Hong Kong University and Harvard School of Public Health performed some modeling that combined known data and assumptions of how many minimally symptomatic carriers were out in the community. They believe when all is said and done the true CFR will be 1.4%.

We can't bank on the hope that asymptomatic carriers will drive down the CFR rate though it should have at least a modest effect. The WHO's fact finding mission to China that consisted of 25 international infectious disease specialists, just released a report stating that they believe that there are very few asymptomatic carriers. Most of them are actually just mild cases that can be identified if we're looking for them. That would likely make the eventual results of the South Korea testing to be very insightful since they're encouraging anyone who wants a test to go get a test for free.

Even still, the virus can mutate and we could be back to square one.

 

[smirking]

Coronavirus is been around for a while

It's been around even earlier than 2013. SARS was a Coronavirus. A lot of Coronaviruses are related, but it just refers to the physical shape of the virus. They're so named for the crown like particles on the surface. It's like saying you drive a Ford. It could be a Ford Fiesta or one of their concept supercars that cost over a million and aren't street legal.

Alcohol based Antiseptic wipes are not effective on viral contamination.

That's not true, but we actually don't fully understand exactly how virulent surface contamination is. Most viruses on surfaces do not hold up well against disinfectants says the Journal of Hospital Infections, but it might take more than a quick spritz and wipe to eliminate them.

This is all very confusing. We're being told to wash our hands and not touch our faces, but yet the WHO advises that surface transmission is not common and an influenza study done on the NYC Subways found that only 4% of transmission happened by way of the subway.

If for no other benefit. If this all ends up being a false alarm we're going to learn a hell of a lot about exactly how viruses transmit and infect others. Well... at least for one virus.

They say a face mask is NOT ineffective but why are hospital staff wear the things?

Because people in hospitals are in high risk environments where every breath they take might be dangerous. Even in hospitals, they don't wear masks everywhere. They only wear them in the high risk areas.

In comparison, most people wearing masks are just walking down the street where even without a mask you're extremely unlikely to get infected. Furthermore, people rarely wear them right or they do things like take them off at the exact moment when they're actually at a higher risk. If you wear it on the street, but take it off when you walk into a cafe to eat, you're actually doing it backwards. You're more likely to encounter respiratory droplets in an enclosed space than you are outdoors.

Don't wear a mask unless you're sick. They're far more effective to reduce the chance that you're giving your germs to others than they are at protecting you from incoming germs. The reason why you shouldn't hoard masks in a shortage is because it actually increases the chance that you will become critically ill.

Yes, I mean that. It does it in an indirect way because masks are critical for healthcare workers to have. If they're not able to get enough and they get sick, the healthcare system will be losing vital resources that will not be available to treat the critically ill and prevent somewhat sick patients from advancing into critically ill patients. Healthcare workers need it way way way more than you do and they will use it properly to maximize their protective effects.

If there's no shortage of masks, then go ahead and wear one if it makes you feel better, but just don't feel a false sense of security that it's doing much for you.

 

[Huntn]

Added this link to post 1:

‘What Are the Symptoms?’ ‘Is There a Cure?’ and Other Coronavirus Questions

‘What Are the Symptoms?’ ‘What Should I Do if I Feel Sick?’ and Other Coronavirus Questions

Here’s what to do if you feel sick and are worried it may be the coronavirus.

www.nytimes.com

What symptoms should I look out for?
Symptoms of this infection include fever, cough and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. The illness causes lung lesions and pneumonia. But milder cases may resemble the flu or a bad cold, making detection difficult.

Patients also may exhibit other symptoms, such as gastrointestinal problems or diarrhea. Current estimates suggest that symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days after exposure to the virus
————————————-

There is no cure, so treatments include taking care of yourself and over-the-counter (OTC) medication*:
* Not implying you should not see a doctor.

• Rest and avoid overexertion.
• Drink enough water.
• Avoid smoking and smoky areas.
• Take acetaminophen, ibuprofen or naproxen to reduce pain and fever.
• Use a clean humidifier or cool mist vaporizer.

Coronaviruses: Symptoms, treatments, and variants
www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/256521.php

 

[smirking]

WIKI EDIT: I just added the ranked prevalence of common Covid 19 symptoms as reported by a WHO February 2020 fact finding mission.

1. fever (87.9%)
2. dry cough (67.7%)
3. fatigue (38.1%)
4. sputum production (33.4%)
5. shortness of breath (18.6%)
6. sore throat (13.9%)
7. headache (13.6%)
8. myalgia or arthralgia (14.8%)
9. chills (11.4%)
10. nausea or vomiting (5.0%)
11. nasal congestion (4.8%)
12. diarrhea (3.7%)
13. hemoptysis (0.9%)
14. conjunctival congestion (0.8%)

 

[Huntn]

@A.Goldberg, I had the impression corona was “flu like” but if I understand it it’s more “pneumonia like” plus lesions, causing lesions in the lungs. I’ve read there is no cure so when you see a doctor, what treatment would they give you other than stay in bed, drink water and take acetaminophen, ibuprofen or naproxen to reduce pain and fever?
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WIKI EDIT: I just added the ranked prevalence of common Covid 19 symptoms as reported by a WHO February 2020 fact finding mission.

1. fever (87.9%)
2. dry cough (67.7%)
3. fatigue (38.1%)
4. sputum production (33.4%)
5. shortness of breath (18.6%)
6. sore throat (13.9%)
7. headache (13.6%)
8. myalgia or arthralgia (14.8%)
9. chills (11.4%)
10. nausea or vomiting (5.0%)
11. nasal congestion (4.8%)
12. diarrhea (3.7%)
13. hemoptysis (0.9%)
14. conjunctival congestion (0.8%)

I don’t see this list in post 1?
edit: never mind it just popped up.

 

[smirking]

I don’t see this list in post 1?

You might have to refresh the page. I see it there.

 

[Huntn]

Yes, the virus shape allows this strain to live longer on surfaces similar to bacteria with it's capsulation...

As for the really scary part: there are super spreaders who are asymptomatic and spreads the virus unknowingly to many others around them.

Time to head for the hills, caves, atolls, and the moon ?

Now don’t over react. Good practises should keep you safe.

If you are asymptomatic, how would you spread it? My understanding is that with strangers it would be spread by means of symptoms: coughing sneezing and then them touching contaminating surfaces. I’ll assume asymptomatic would be by touching surfaces that you touch.

In the past I have been laissez faire about washing my hands in public, but yesterday I was at the gym and was using hand disinfectant, more than I ever had, and washed my hands just before leaving the facility, not using my hands to open doors.