Have I said that they don't wear masks? I said that they do wear them more than us. However, as the first article explains, it might be just a courtesy. The impression that some people/articles want to give - especially by selective use of pictures - is that Asians wear them all the time which is a bad stereotype. Certainly a pre-Covid westerner would've noticed that some Asians wear them because it would've been strange for him (kind of the same effect of when you buy a car and then you see the same model everywhere).Not according to the VOA
Not Just Coronavirus: Asians Have Worn Face Masks for Decades
People from Japan into Southeast Asia cover their mouths to deflect exhaust, pollution and cold air, Some are hiding their faceswww.voanews.com
and times
Why Face Masks Are Encouraged in Asia, but Shunned in the U.S.
While wearing a mask in the face of the COVID-19 outbreak is second nature to people in parts of Asia, health experts in the West suggest otherwisetime.com
and qz
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Coronavirus (Covid-19) informational thread
- Thread starter yaxomoxay
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No, this is just math (probability theory) actually. The virus cannot spread if we achieve herd immunity. We need vaccine efficacy rate multiplied by vaccine rate to be greater than 80%. Then even the vulnerable people are safe, because the transmission barrier is strong enough, that’s the definition of herd immunity. It doesn’t mean most people are safe, it means the virus cannot survive. We may have sporadic cases, but they are going to be limited and transient.
When medical resources are abundant, even if you have COVID, you will be safe anyway.
People who tested negative for Covid would then be further tested if hospitalized for the flu.
you're right that we can't "measure" a negative. But we can measure the change in reporting, hospital admissions and visits to doctors regarding flu symptoms
and given those metrics, the Flu numbers are massively down
Remember: up here we have nationalised healthcare. So going to get treatement even for the flu is common if the symptoms are bad enough (usually just receive hydration or some stronger pain killers if it's not that serious)
So given the absolutely shocking decline in reported flu admissions, testing, and complaints, we can attest that the flu (and not just people who claim it, but legitimate flus) are down. And ther ewere several strains that were being monitored (here in Canada at least) that used to spread every year, that were not seen once.
Now, it's not a single "masks caused the decline". Masks, Lock downs, Increase in Vaccinations due to public sentiment and increased personal hygiene due to Covid, have all led to this.
Now that doesn't mean that in a few years, other Flu strains pop up. it'll happen.
But also note: I'm talking about legitimate tracable influenza strains. Not the common cold that many do "THINK" is the flu. They are significantly different illnesses. Anyone who has had a legitimate strain of influenza knows that 90% of people who say "i have the flu" likely do not but have some other variant of the cold virus (Also a carona virus)
I think the point is that we've been able to evidence that some of the measure we took against Covid are also effective against diseases that we "got used to" that could have great reductions if we all just did a little better hygeine and protection even when COvid Isn't a concern.
Even once the mask mandates lift, I can see myself keeping using one for heavily populated dense areas.
Yes, but...
One of the surprising things about the emergence of the pandemic in America was the almost total lack of genetic sequencing to see *what* was going around. Time after time I heard and read people commenting, and complaining, about 'not knowing'. Not knowing what it was, not knowing what type of the pandemic contagion it was, not having the ability to *track* the infection, and track it as it has mutated, and the real fear that they would not be able to identify the next variant. It would appear that, from the beginning, that it was the *data* that the people in charge were most afraid of. From what I hear, genetic sequencing is still lagging, and it's hiding the spread of the variants.
If anything, America needs MORE data, and it seems like it's still not going to get it. China does a much much better job of sequencing and tracking their pandemic contagions. And Delta is wrecking havoc there right now, and they are able to track its path through their citizens.
The flu kills between 20,000 and 60,000 Americans a year. There is no way they are going to miss that. If people dying of COVID go to the hospital, people dying of the flu will too. There is extensive monitoring of flu. People who come into hospitals with COVID are tested for flu since the symptoms are similar. The disappearance of flu has been a world-wide phenomenon.
Well, it's quite a big if
What we can do, at most, is estimate. Too many things changed, from patient's behavior to reporting, to hospitalization requirements, etc.
Yes, but again you add the requirement "bad enough". In 2019 flu tests were routine, my kid got tested twice in 2019 alone (or was it 2018? Time passes fast!), and got tested again before surgery in January 2020. Then they stopped all the non-emergency, non-Covid medical operations for months. Patients were told to NOT go. This is true in virtually all western countries, socialized healthcare or not, and it was because we were told that we needed to help preventing the overload of the system. Which means that most people that got sick didn't get the proper testing and care. Just that is going to have a massive impact and there is no way to measure for it.
I keep disagreeing on this point because the requirements for admissions and testing were completely overhauled (no idea about complaints!). This, on top of people that hid any symptom to avoid quarantine.
Again, there is no way to say that the flu has even declined (I think it did). It's just an extrapolation based on very imperfect data points. Now, am I saying that masks didn't have an effect? No. That's now what I am saying. I am sure that there was an impact. But claiming a drastic reduction because of masks and doing that through YTY data comparison is basically a leap of faith.
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The virus WILL SPREAD even with 'herd immunity'. There will always be a small cache of people that aren't vaccinated, or, horrors of horrors, a zoonotic base that sparks another variant that jumps back across and infects humans.
This virus feeds off ignorance and timidity. It will mutate. It will get worse. It could mutate into a noncontagious variant. Many deadly viruses do that. It could also mutate into a far more deadly variant, and that is what is insured by mandating no masks, no social distancing, no precautions. Such political grandstanding will backfire in huge ways that will carry species level effects.
Well, we know that 10,000 did die of the flu (flu only). Now, my understanding - correct me if I am wrong - is that if someone dies with Covid that's a Covid mark independently on if they also have the flu (Pneumonia however is measured together with Covid).
No, you are missing one part of the math. The virus will die off in an individual if that person is healed before it got a chance to jump to a different person. A series of local extinctions will prevent the virus from spreading. Infecting a new unvaccinated host is also not a 100% event. More like 60% or less for a brief close encounter. If the string of virus cannot be passed on again and again, then it won’t mutate because it will die off.
We already see this with a few illnesses that have effective vaccines but small percentages refuse to take them or refuse to have their kids take them.
by the way, thanks for the link!
So, in a regular year they estimate that about 50% of those infected (estimate on the left) won't get tested (estimate on the right). I bet that Covid increased that to 90%...
Well, it's quite a big if
What we can do, at most, is estimate. Too many things changed, from patient's behavior to reporting, to hospitalization requirements, etc.
Yes, but again you add the requirement "bad enough". In 2019 flu tests were routine, my kid got tested twice in 2019 alone (or was it 2018? Time passes fast!), and got tested again before surgery in January 2020. Then they stopped all the non-emergency, non-Covid medical operations for months. Patients were told to NOT go. This is true in virtually all western countries, socialized healthcare or not, and it was because we were told that we needed to help preventing the overload of the system. Which means that most people that got sick didn't get the proper testing and care. Just that is going to have a massive impact and there is no way to measure for it.
I keep disagreeing on this point because the requirements for admissions and testing were completely overhauled (no idea about complaints!). This, on top of people that hid any symptom to avoid quarantine.
Again, there is no way to say that the flu has even declined. It's just an extrapolation based on very imperfect data points. Now, am I saying that masks didn't have an effect? No. That's now what I am saying. I am sure that there was an impact. But claiming a drastic reduction because of masks and doing that through YTY data comparison is basically a leap of faith.
I honestly think this is one of those regional differences though where our Country handled some aspects different
Our ER's and medical clinics were not, nor ever closed off to non-covid patients. we only hit the point once (aprils 3rd wave) where we had 100% capacity in some hospitals. most of rural ontario did not have covid outbreaks so their hospitals were 100% open to Flu patients. So throughout the entirety of 2020 and 2021, People were absolutely still going to clinics, hospitals and ER's for all sorts of things, including flu and flu like symptoms.
While we delayed a lot of surgeries and optional treatments during the pandemic to keep hospital ICUs use low, we didn't do what you're saying about admissions and overhaul. And throughout most of 2021 we didn't have mandatory quarantines in Ontario (which likely led to the large spike in the 3rd wave). Discussing why we were so "open" though gets political.
So while what you're claiming that nobody was getting tested for the flu for various reasosn. That was not the truth up here. We actively continued testing for it (as the report I linked shows) and that there was still some flus, but the known preventative measures to stop the flu, were the same ones we were using to affect Covid. Covid is just that much much more contagious than the average flu.
so again< I think this is one of those areas where, the different ways we handled Covid likely also had massively different outcomes not just in Covid, but other's including the flu. We also know that yearly there's a certain average of patients who do die from the Flu. The FLu can kill. In the 2019-2020 (prior to covid) flu season (
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-hea...ditions/fluwatch/2019-2020/annual-report.html ),
> A total of 306 ICU admissions and 120 deaths were reported this season by participating province and territories.
The 2020-2021 report isn't out yet, But so far, these numbers are expected to be fractions of what they were in the year before.
So even if we're just talking Deaths, and we're seeing dramatic decrease, that's enough further evidence that the spread of the flu is greatly hampered by all the measures we've taken against Covid.
So, if the US / States you are in locked out Flu patients from medical treatment due to being swamped by Covid, so that you can't trust the numbers, I can attest that, that is NOT the norma around the world and some other jurisdictions have done far greater job at tracking and monitoring it than yours'
You are wrong, but whatever. The virus will be with us for ever now. The problem is can we react responsibly and quickly enough to stay ahead of it. So far, the answer is a very disturbing 'HOLD MY BEER!', no...
Australia has had severe lock downs, and their citizenry is radically undervaccinated, and they have a small sliver of a percentage of the death rate America experienced. Lock downs WORK. Masks WORK. Social distancing WORKS. Burying your head in the sand only works for the virus. Pushing for 'herd immunity' carries a massive MASSIVE human death toll. Just MASSIVE... And vaccines aren't the magic bullet they are touted to be. There are people that have no immunologic reaction to the vaccines. There are people that will lie. The human factor is the weakest link.
Heck, there are flair ups of The Plague still. Yes 'that plague'.
I can't speak for your region obviously, but I remember clearly that here (Texas), in Italy, and in Switzerland (and I seem to remember Spain, France, and UK but I have only friends there and not relatives) suspended non-emergency surgeries, and told everyone to stay home unless really sick because they had to save on PPE among other issues (ICU was not the only problem). Some clinics were closed. The biggest reason - in my area - was not ICU being full (it never was), but to save on PPE and to prevent personnel being overwhelmed.
I am sure that most people even in your area didn't want to visit a place potentially full of sick people unless they truly had to... and I am sure that many understood that PPE demand was high so we could all prevent some waste by not going there.
Personally, I think a reason why the vaccination rate isn't higher is a number of Internet influencers on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram that are almost vehemently anti-vaccination. It's an issue that has been around for some years, and unfortunately caused typhus and pertussis (whooping cough) to spread in the USA again. 😒 I do think that with vaccines widely available, people should be aggressively vaccinated now before the fall.
I recall early genetic family tree charts. So there was sequencing but maybe not enough?
Illumina used to have a billboard advertisement on the Southeast Expressway in Boston. It's an area where there are so many companies and research work done that the advertisement could net sales.
My son's manager sequenced my tumor sample for me when I couldn't get my oncologist to order it.
yup we saw what happened in some of those regions that let the virus sort of "run rampant" and just relied on the medical system
We decided to avoid that early on. The first 6 months we were under "flatten the curve" and did a really good job. from March 2020 to April 2021 we never ever hit hospital capacity. and were already "open" with modifications.
Problem happened once September hit. Businesses wanted everyone back in, and we have a "pro business" premiere running the province who decided that the medical table needed less doctors and scientists and started inviting heads of business (developers and Amazon executives) to the table
We continued to open up despite the numbers and science table saying it was too soon. But that swhat we get with a Ford in office. Even during our "second wave" we never ever hit capacity. We hit "this is troubling and should probably keep an eye on it"
we ONLY hit capacity in march 2021 when the provincial government told everyone "we're open!" ignored all science and tried to throw business doors wide open.
we had the science table show in a press conference the fourth wave prediction. And then immediately say "but schools are safe and business is open!". thats when our numbers skyrocketted to the chart above i had showed.
we did fairly well up until that point. and even then, We never hit 100% capacity in our hospitals. Close., but never. So we didn't have the same issues like Italy, or parts of the states, where people were basically told "stay home and hope"
What I've heard is that there are 12 main influencers for Anti-Vax and that they have financial motivations for doing so.
Though killing off your customer base usually isn't the best business strategy.
Lockdowns worked in many Asian countries until Delta. New Zealand and Australia are easier to lock down but even they aren't completely immune to cases here and there and the resulting economic damage.
What we saw over the last year is that hard strict total lockdowns did a good job at quickly getting case counts back down.
But LONG lockdowns eventually burned out people and they would stop following directions, leading to cases going back up.
A very quick, but harsh lockdown of about 3 weeks in areas did seem to have a massive affect. And it allowed businesses to reopen quicker and stay open longer afterwards.
What we did in ontario was the WORST thing for businesses. we were in a year long modified lockdown where businesses never knew if they'd be open or closed and in a few cases, told to open on Monday, than immediately by friday closed again. This was the wrong way to do it as the end result for us will be massive financial losses to small businesses (there are way too many closed shops already)
Where, compare to places like Aussie or NZ with harsh shorter lockdowns, but then reopen, and they tend to be better off financially.
We've worn masks for about five years, me because I am compromised and my son because he hates getting the flu. But it's been a thing in Asia. I even recall some wearing masks when I was in China back in the 1980s. I just assumed that they were sick but going someplace and didn't want to spread whatever they had.
I will be content with the result China had on COVID (after the initial month). At least wall street agrees, and so do Boeing and Airbus and many other tech companies that have moved more of their R&D over to China.
They don't even have that high of a vaccine rate. Whatever they are doing, it's working for them and the American companies that pivoted to China. Just look up their case and GDP growth numbers for 2020.
It can be done!
Very very interesting! However comparing Ontario (or worse, the US) with Australia or New Zealand is not really comparing apples to apples...
The bottom line before I go: get your effin vaccine people! That's the key!