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Coronavirus (Covid-19) informational thread
- Thread starter yaxomoxay
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From a friend of mine this morning: i got permission from the cancer docs to get my covid vaccine, and it is today at 2 pm (Pfizer) Listen, i got so many novel drugs in my system, we can model it all we want but we dont know how it will interact, but im doing it...its called courage..try it sometime, u anti vaxxers (Twitter)
yes, every region really has their own uniqueness and how to handle things.
Atlantic Canada didn't have lockdowns. They created a "bubble" and just outright blocked any travel in or out from the rest of Canada or the US. they had almost zero case counts the entire time. But they have the unique geographical situation to do that. Not something Ontario or Quebec have the real power to do due to population density and size of the place.
for us, despite what i've said, we didn't do things right and without the desire for the hard lockdowns, we eventually almost let the virus get away from us in the third wave.
At the end of the day, at least our premiere, while a giant bumbling idiot, was smart enough when **** got really bad to step aside and let the experts run ****. It was when he was trying to be actively involved did we do worse.
But your bottom line is right: GET YOUR SHOTS! they work.
I don't have faith in the CCP reporting of numbers and statistics out of China. There's way too many questionable decisions and reporting.
EG: Wuhan went from 40,000 cases and thousands a day to literally 0 new cases for a year? when you look at the numbers they are reporting, t hey don't line up with all known expectations of the virus.
Could they be telling the truth? Sure, but right now there's enough history and evidence for the skeptics in China's reporting to have enough meat to fall back on.
There is so much info out there and so much confusion that I am concerned about getting a clear message to the public. So, let me take a couple of data points and get some feedback:
I saw on the news that vaccinated people are 3 times less likely to get infected with the disease.
I also saw that, given a vaccinated person is infected, they are 10 times less likely to be hospitalized or die from the disease.
So, can I conclude that vaccinated people are:
Lastly, while it is true that only 70% of US adults have received one dose, a much higher percentage of elderly are fully vaccinated. The vaccinations skew heavily to the older, since they were given priority and they were most motivated because elderly account for the greatest number of hospitalizations and deaths. Last question:
3. Can we expect that the mortality rate from COVID is going to be much lower with this latest surge, since a huge number of elderly are protected by the vaccine?
I saw on the news that vaccinated people are 3 times less likely to get infected with the disease.
I also saw that, given a vaccinated person is infected, they are 10 times less likely to be hospitalized or die from the disease.
So, can I conclude that vaccinated people are:
- 30 times less likely to be hospitalized or die from the disease (3x10), since you need to be infected before you get sick or die from it?
- 3 times less likely to transmit the disease, since you need to be infected to transmit? I am assuming that once infected a vaccinated person is equally likely to transmit, since that seems to be the new science that the CDC put forth on Tuesday.
Lastly, while it is true that only 70% of US adults have received one dose, a much higher percentage of elderly are fully vaccinated. The vaccinations skew heavily to the older, since they were given priority and they were most motivated because elderly account for the greatest number of hospitalizations and deaths. Last question:
3. Can we expect that the mortality rate from COVID is going to be much lower with this latest surge, since a huge number of elderly are protected by the vaccine?
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One influencer that used to be a lot online isn't there anymore--fortunately! (That person is Alex Jones.) He helped spread the anti-vax movement and caused more trouble than it was worth.
Between June 15 2020 and last week, 883 people died of the flu in the U.S according to the CDC.
if the third wave for you is like ours, then yes, the mortality rate will appear lower, because it'll be the younger populations infected.
but obviously that depends on how well the high risk populations are protected and vaccinated. and Death will also depend on co-morbidities of the unvaccinated population. We have seen evidence that obesity and it's related illnesses can cause far gworse outcomes in younger populations.
So do you expect the mortality rate will be significantly lower in this latest surge?
Fortunately, in the US, I believe almost 90% of folks over 65y.o. Have received at least one dose. So, that is pretty good.
****ing hell I wish.
We really **** with our elderly up here in the toronto area. Dump them in private LTC's with bad health and safety records. During the first wave, the majority of deaths were directly the result of negligent LTC private owners pushing to save money over keeping employees and residents safe.
It got so bad that the Canadian Military were called in to help keep LTC homes open and improve the facilities. A very large public report was then issued outlining how bad the state of these places were, and how they were basically negligent that resulted in thousands of unnecessary deaths
Our provincial government has done literally zero to correct the problems. Instead they passed legislations that made it illegal to sue private LTC providers for negligence.
text of the military report outlining the negligent conditions: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6928480-OP-LASER-JTFC-Observations-in-LTCF-in-On.html
If we're going to just make up things, I could make up the theory more people who had symptomatic flu would go to the hospital because they would worry it might be COVID.
You know coming up with a theory that the flu didn't diminish during COVID in the face of the universal opinion of the medical field that it did, is sort of like the anti-vaxxers making up reasons not to get the vaccine, right?
I have not looked at the data. I expect that we'll be mixing in lambda and epsilon as well.
From what we saw up here, 65% of elderly vaccinated isn't enough to dramatically protect them. We had to get ours up to 90%+ before the LTC outbreaks stopped.
When I saw we, I mean we elderly.
The choice of LTC isn't usually made by the elderly.
Our mother is living in her own home. We go there to provide supplies and care. If she had been in LTC, she wouldn't be alive today. Those places got clobbered in MA and NH.
COVID isn't the only risk to LTC. LTC staff are usually paid poorly and we've had abuse and quality of care issues with the places.
My parents thankfully are young enough (late 60s) to be in their own hous still. but after the ******** in LTC's that we saw during covid and how absolutely horrendous the private care facilities ahve turned out to be, If I can't find them a public one, I'll probably end up being their primary care giver as they age.
but when the alternative is put them in one of these homes? it's almost a no brainer now. I truly wish Ontario would eliminate for profit LTC. This is one file where 100% the evidnce shows that privatization of this industry led to worse outcomes for just about everyone. Even very rich families in expensive homes weren't spared from the owners nickel and diming and reducing quality of care for profit.
yup! we could probably have a giant thread alone on the LTC issues and what they've bcome (Basically a dumping ground for our elderly)
Covid only exemplified how bad it was. Most people didn't see (or want to see it). But it was impossible to ignore when we were having thousands of our elderly drop dead from this disease.
the drive to lower costs in private LTc's is directly attributing to the lower care. Nurses who are paid only "part time" wages. No benefits. Expected to work in numerous LTC homes daily doing shift work. LTC's that don't even have permanent resident staff. Lack of care. lack of resources. Read the report I posted above. it's absolutely damning just how bad we let our private LTC owners get away with up here.
But as I said. Instead of fixing it. Increasing regulations. increasing inspections. Mandating full time employment for RNs and the like. Our Conservative provincial government banned suing them for negligence. (What else should we expect from a Ford)
When pressed why they haven't done anything to fix the LTC problem, the minister of Long Term care did nothing and blamed everyone from Justin Trudeau (Current PM), Stephen Harper (Former PM), A few mayors, the military, oh, And the MPP's for DARING to question her.
it's been a **** show. our entire LTC private industry honestly needs to be shuttered and return to public.
I am not "making things up". I wrote that "I bet", that is mine is a gut feeling based on the few things I see. I am not saying that it's a valid theory, or not even a theory.
Which is not what I claimed.
That would be an easy answer, but no, they weren't, and still aren't lying. If your company has people stationed in China or your friends and colleagues in China, ask them.
The US government and the mainstream media accused China of many things for COVID, but lying about their current data or state of things is never one of them, at least not after Feb 1, 2020. The full state emergency response at a federal level in China kicked off in late January, around Jan 22, 2020.
When the central military command and the politburo in China take direct supervision of any matter in China, no local officials can hide anything shady from the public in fear of their position. A few officials were fired on the spot.
They mobilized resources super fast, like a (soft) martial law type of fast. Every city in China sent in a few doctors as volunteers to Wuhan. The federal researchers and scholars from the Academy of Science/Engineering, the best EMS teams from federal research hospitals and universities, and military medical teams were airlifted into Wuhan.
Two hospitals were built by 50,000+ volunteer construction workers sent into Wuhan by high-speed train and by dedicated coaches with police escort. They did it in like 10 days or less. I forgot.
After that, almost no one died.
There were (almost) no mandatory quarantines outside of Wuhan in China, ever in 2020. You can go out with a mask on if in a populated area, no mask is required in the wild with no immediate human contact. The remaining quarantines were voluntary and precautionary.
In Wuhan during quarantine, food and supplies were delivered to your residence outside for free from all over the country, even high-grade beef, premium bottled glacier water, and stuff all the way from Tebet (i.e. Himalaya). All free to the people there, including ex-pats. Medical care due to covid is also free for ex-pats in China without insurance.
After that things were backed to normal in a controlled manner.
From all the ex-pats in China that went through this in China, they were all pretty happy about their situation. They say they were only impacted for about a month and a half. For ones not in Wuhan, they actually did not have more than a handful of cases in their city during the peak. Once a covid potential case has been reported, negative-pressed ambulances are sent in to package the patient and all his or her families in air chambers and taken directly to a major designated hospital. Almost all of them lived. None died that we know of.
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I posted Earlier yesterday's nmbers in Ontario, today's numbers are out:
228 new cases (+5 vs yesterday, +10 from last weeks average)
148 Recoveries.
11 Deaths
21,000 tests done for a positivity rate of 1.08%
ICU's are at 117 (-4 from yesterday, -19 from last week)
83,907 new Vaccine doses delivered (80.20% one shot / 68.40% double of the 12+ year old population)
What we're seeing primarily now is unvaccinated people making up the bulk, if not all the hospitalizations. and 100% of ICU usage, which continues to decline despite case count average slightly ticking upwards. Indicating that people who are vaccinated, even if tehy are testing positive, are not requiring medical treatment.
if the case count plateaus and hospitalizations / ICU's decline, we're in a good place IMHO. Especially since last week we did open up further. So additional spread would be possible.
I think Ontario at least is now at the point where day to day case count is irrelevant. ICU's and hospital load is the critical one. As long as people continue to get vaccinated, and our ICU / Hospitalizations continues to decline, we are likely going to continue to open up according tot he reopening plan
more specifics and details:
228 new cases (+5 vs yesterday, +10 from last weeks average)
148 Recoveries.
11 Deaths
21,000 tests done for a positivity rate of 1.08%
ICU's are at 117 (-4 from yesterday, -19 from last week)
83,907 new Vaccine doses delivered (80.20% one shot / 68.40% double of the 12+ year old population)
What we're seeing primarily now is unvaccinated people making up the bulk, if not all the hospitalizations. and 100% of ICU usage, which continues to decline despite case count average slightly ticking upwards. Indicating that people who are vaccinated, even if tehy are testing positive, are not requiring medical treatment.
if the case count plateaus and hospitalizations / ICU's decline, we're in a good place IMHO. Especially since last week we did open up further. So additional spread would be possible.
I think Ontario at least is now at the point where day to day case count is irrelevant. ICU's and hospital load is the critical one. As long as people continue to get vaccinated, and our ICU / Hospitalizations continues to decline, we are likely going to continue to open up according tot he reopening plan
more specifics and details:
I have colleagues posted in China. It's true though. See my last post.
It's totally possible, just look at Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Singapore, and New Zealand.
Also, China has absolute border control and biowarfare-level quarantine at airports and after the initial Wuhan phase. Same with Taiwan actually, but they goofed recently.
If you feel that you may have COVID in the US or Canada, you are asked to self-quarantine at home. In China, they take you and your immediate families and recent contacts in with a negative-pressured ambulance to a major hospital. No exceptions. Since it's free, even for ex-pats, no one objects.
That alone makes a difference.
China also has an unlimited federal budget, doctors, PPE, and equipment. Note that all hospitals are publically owned in China, and don't care about profitability.
All workers were working voluntarily without prenegotiated pay during the Chinese equivalent of Xmas, being sent halfway across the country.
Basically, all the Chinese treated it as if they were under martial law for countering biological warfare, without one being declared. This is voluntary and unanimous. No questions were asked, no debates were necessary. This I think, is the most major difference. They acted like Fire Ants and Honnybess, all 1.4 billion of them.
During the early days in Wuhan, they saw the end of China. They fought and turned it around.
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So did I.
I say did.
Because of the two, one died of Covid over there... but ya know.. "nobody died in Chian of Covid" according to you.
the other got the **** out and came back to Canada cause China, and mainly the CCP is not truthful and silences, often by "disapearing" people who disagree or speak up against them.
They are claiming once they locked down wuhan they had an absolute 0 case count country wide of 1billion+ people.
Even other countries in this world who have strict lockdowns aren't claiming such absolutism of defeating the virus. That is pure propagand by the CCP to their residents. the CCP must always appear in absolute control and in charge, and can never be wrong / fail.
Simply put: China and the CCP are not truthful. Have acted in Bad faith on this since day one. I won't throw around conspiracy theories like they orchestrated the disaease. But claiming that they've been perfect and absolutely flawless in locking down and keeping population alive, is absolutely 100% unverifiable ******** that has enough anecdotal stories out of China to disprove./
It also doesn't help that when Canada signed with China a reasearch and investigation deal into the origins and virus, China stole all the technology, research, and the locked out Canadian scientists, refused to share the data, and then blocked us from receiving any vaccines that China claimed to have.
So yes. Call me skeptical all you want. But the CCP is lying about how well they handled Covid and that is far far more believeable and likely given all the information than what you're claiminab about their absolute mastery over a disease that somehow no other nation has managed.
Your mother is 99 and living on her own? That's awesome. You must take good care of her.
My Mom is 81 living on her own now. Fortunately she is very healthy, but I worry about the future. Seeing COVID ravage LTC facilities, I am more sure than ever I could never put her in one. (I assume LTC is deadly for more common things like flu and pneumonia too.) Still, one never knows what one will have to contend with...