A Long Post!
Okay, so the first iPhone was iPhone 1,1 and the new iPhone was iPhone 1,2. Logically, if the ipod Touch is iPod 1,1 then wouldn't the new ipod Touch be iPod 1,2? It also seems logical then that iPod 2,1 would be an entirely new form factor for the ipod. Would it make any sense market wise? Well, the back to school program is dumping iPod Touches like hot cakes and from that couldn't we deduce that they are clearing inventory for a new product?
The Touch is significantly more expensive then the last promotion's Nanos which would suggest to me that Apple saw a lot of value to dumping them. It not only sweetened the back to school program immensely but it also seriously drew down on product inventory. Why is that significant? Well, the iPhone presents a real problem because of the perceived value. Consumers see it as a $199 device. Now we all know in the long run that it's much more expensive then that but it is still perceived as a $199 product by Joe Consumer. Currently the 8 gb iPod Touch is selling for $299. So most consumers will look at that and think that they are paying $100 more for the same device without a phone! This is a marketing night mare! Okay, quick fix, flash has dropped significantly, material costs are down with the large amount of current orders, so they drop the price down to $149. Pretty slim but it will allow for continuing sales, but at that price point the ipod Touch is a dead dog. How can they continue to advance the Touch when they are up against the iPhone ceiling?
Hey, I know, a new form factor! It's bigger then the iPhone and in a completely different category! Big screen form factor, say 5x7 or maybe even a little larger, some where under a 12 inch screen. There are currently a number of companies that have played with the notion of a sub-compact notebook but they really haven't taken off. Why? Maybe a lot of reasons but I think it's because no one has taken the time to map out the future to give a compelling reason to have a really small device.
What if you had a larger iPod Touch that had the following:
iPhone/Touch gesture driven flat screen technology
Accelerometer
GPS
Camera
Bigger Speakers
Bluetooth
Much larger battery potential
More room for a larger processor and more memory
Access to iTunes AND the App Store
Thats great but what else is possible. I don't think it will have an optical drive because if they couldn't get it into an Air then we probably won't see it here either. But a bigger form factor might allow for some other possibilities like a wireless keyboard. And if it had a camera on the front and back (as the rumors have suggested) why not have full on video chat potential! Can you also imagine the gaming potential of a bigger screen device with more memory and more battery? Why not substitute if for a laptop at school? Full web browsing, touch keyboard or wireless, games, recorded notes, the possibilities are endless. Why not use it as a business device? Here's a sweet idea, why not have a clip on your dash for a large crystal clear GPS turn by turn device that also plays music?
Apple has to develop a device to assume the position of the Touch. I think that is why they originally tried to do the iPhone without the subsidization that the current cell phone economy uses (besides the fact that it is a dead end marketing scheme that works against manufacturers). Apple knew that a subsidized phone would ruin their current ipod line up, specifically the Touch. Unfortunately, the subsidy system is so ingrained in so many countries they couldn't fight it. So what else can Apple do but create a new branch that will run alongside the iphone with a much deeper potential.
Here's an interesting idea. Why would a consumer want to buy a little device like that? How do you increase the potential and present a value added viable product? Remember a few months back when there was a leak about Apple submitting a patent for a dock type device that you could slide a small computing device into? Everyone assumed it was for the MacBook Air but really, the Air's form factor doesn't lend itself to using it in a dock. But what if you had that larger iPod Touch with that handy little 30 pin connector at the bottom of the ipod. Wouldn't that fit nicely into a plug inside of a slide in dock device. Now you have a little device that you can carry around with you at school or for business and when you get to school, home or the office you just drop it into a larger iMac size screen and BAM! You now have a full on desktop computer with lots of ethernet and usb ports, an optical drive, larger external drives (Time Capsule), larger speakers, keyboard and a mouse! Now THAT is a concept!
The whole point of this is Apple. MP3 players have been around forever but the problem was that no one looked to the future and attempted to build a whole ecosystem around it. Then apple came along and took a simple idea and really studied it. They started by building an infrastructure to support the device, iTunes. Then they looked at iTunes and built an infrastructure around that adding books, movies, lectures and now applications. Now you have a whole ecosystem supporting and deepening the value of that lowly ipod and extending the value of the Mac. What could they do to further extend that system? Cell phones have been around for a long time too but no one really looked at the potential of what a device like that could really do, until Apple. Now you have a phone that feeds off of the same ecosystem that the ipod started by combining a phone, a computer and a music device. The other cell phone companies will have a really hard time competing against the iphone because they don't have the Apple depth that the iPhone has. What else could Apple add to that quickly growing ecosystem. Hmmm, what about a TV device and lastly, what about the ultimate subcompact computing system! This is the ultimate irony. When the iPod first came out everyone went on and on about the halo effect. How it introduced the legions to the Mac environment and draw them unwittingly to the fairer platform. Well, now that ipod doesn't just introduce you to the Mac, it becomes the Mac.
I truly believe that this was Steve's idea from the very beginning, that the iPod and iTunes were gateway products designed to grow an entire ecosystem. This is about the Apple's incredible fabric of depth. Everyone has joked about Apple's three legged stool. Maybe that fourth leg is finally here and the little smile on Steve's face was because of just another, "...one more thing".