Gen 3 butterfly keyboard

[navaira]

Which models did you have trouble with? All of mine have been the 2.9 models.

13", i5 2.3, 16 GB RAM, 3x512 GB, now 1TB. It's day ten. Today space key started registering twice every now and then. That's fourth in a row that didn't even make it to two weeks. I've done a bit of Premiere rendering yesterday, but it's hard to believe that two hours of Premiere work (and not even heavy work) would cause a key to fail unless that silicone condom melts at 40 Celsius! I'll see whether the space bar problem resolves itself and whether further keys begin to fail but my trust in the It Just Works brand is gone.

I'm going to wait until the upcoming Apple event, but in the meantime, I have to find a store where I'll be able to try out the X1 Carbon and the Matebook X Pro. I'm not holding my breath for the "new Macbook Air, now available with improved 3rd generation butterjam keyboard". I'll have to either run macOS in a VM or Hackintosh that Windows PC since Scrivener on Mac is on version 3 and on Windows still on 1.x, but I prefer to fight drivers for an operating system than have a €2989 laptop with a keyboard that can't survive two weeks. Apart from everything else, the reseller I'm getting all those MBPs from is going to blacklist me very soon.

Curious what the Apple Executive Relations person is going to say. Maybe it's a feature, designed to cause poor writers to take regular breaks for their health?

 

[PickUrPoison]

No matter how muchyou pretent


No matter how much you pretend to know what happen, and use anecdotally the same irrelevant numbers to guess and extrapolate from an inexistant sample base some generalized conclusion, fact is this is the biggest flop in Apple recent hardware history. Fact is I can walk in any store grab one in three or four units, type and it has issues. Unless you are paid by Tim Cook to defend this multi hundred joke flop, you have NO COGENT ARGUMENTS and post as data AND facts things that, quantifiably, ARE NOT facts AND NOT studies. Apple Insider NEVER studied the problem. Informal journalistic efforts last I checked are not studies nor data generator. Without hypothesis construct, methodology, empirical evidence and quantified results that are peer to peer. CAPISCE? A 30%+ is a probabilistic number that has more logical cogency behind it, and as much as all those piled up lawsuits.

If Tim does not pay you as an apologist to defend anything, using inexistant AI science, WHICH YOU MISREPRESENT, your joke arguments do nothing to answer to those brining here real expensive issues that affect them. ZERO argument. I recommend a good book" Critical Thinking 101 from George State 101.
[doublepost=1540294305][/doublepost]

Ben voyons many people bought these things and developed an issue weeks or months after a 30 day warranty. Not everyone has a 12 months Aussie consumer refund warranty Nor did everyone buy Apple Care.. Millions of people had no idea what was about to befell them after committing 2,400-6,000 $...

The chiclet design also had very rare issues- some people type without washing their hands after having chicken wings after all (seen it). BUTE EACH KEY COULD BE INDIVIDUALLY FIXED in any tech store from Djibouti to Moumbai, Buenos Aires to Ottawa, New York to Shanghai. That was chiclet. 30 s repair if needed. Not the butterjam design though, became Apple store only. Either way, I have never experienced a chiclet issue in 15 years, but seen key issues on post 2016 models that I tested or helped people with.

“use anecdotally the same irrelevant numbers to guess and extrapolate from an inexistant sample base some generalized conclusion” describes exactly how you have arrived at your 30% number.

 

[Val-kyrie]

Apple has much more experience with successful architecture shifts. They’ve also built the infrastructure (mac App Store, bitcode, etc.) to make it work.

That was under Steve Jobs. I do not trust Tim Cook to provide the same level of support. Cook's attitude is more the take it or leave it mentality. I can see Apple just advising people to buy new hardware when problems arise.

13", i5 2.3, 16 GB RAM, 3x512 GB, now 1TB. It's day ten. Today space key started registering twice every now and then. That's fourth in a row that didn't even make it to two weeks. I've done a bit of Premiere rendering yesterday, but it's hard to believe that two hours of Premiere work (and not even heavy work) would cause a key to fail unless that silicone condom melts at 40 Celsius! I'll see whether the space bar problem resolves itself and whether further keys begin to fail but my trust in the It Just Works brand is gone.

I'm going to wait until the upcoming Apple event, but in the meantime, I have to find a store where I'll be able to try out the X1 Carbon and the Matebook X Pro. I'm not holding my breath for the "new Macbook Air, now available with improved 3rd generation butterjam keyboard". I'll have to either run macOS in a VM or Hackintosh that Windows PC since Scrivener on Mac is on version 3 and on Windows still on 1.x, but I prefer to fight drivers for an operating system than have a €2989 laptop with a keyboard that can't survive two weeks. Apart from everything else, the reseller I'm getting all those MBPs from is going to blacklist me very soon.

Curious what the Apple Executive Relations person is going to say. Maybe it's a feature, designed to cause poor writers to take regular breaks for their health?

Don't deceive yourself. Keys don't magically fix themselves. Consider it a blessing the keyboard is already warning you of impending failure.

As to test driving the Lenovo X1, Costco warehouse stores have display models in both locations in my city. I am impressed with them and the price at Costco is second to none before the occasional sale. The only thing I don't like is the proprietary Ethernet port which doubles as part of Lenovo's dock connector.

Edit: I've never seen a Matebook in person but I would love to find a place which displays them.

 

[cmaier]

That was under Steve Jobs. I do not trust Tim Cook to provide the same level of support. Cook's attitude is more the take it or leave it mentality. I can see Apple just advising people to buy new hardware when problems arise.




Don't deceive yourself. Keys don't magically fix themselves. Consider it a blessing the keyboard is already warning you of impending failure.

As to test driving the Lenovo X1, Costco warehouse stores have display models in both locations in my city. I am impressed with them and the price at Costco is second to none before the occasional sale. The only thing I don't like is the proprietary Ethernet port which doubles as part of Lenovo's dock connector.

Edit: I've never seen a Matebook in person but I would love to find a place which displays them.

The transition to powerpc occurred when Steve was in exile, no?

 

[SDColorado]

As to test driving the Lenovo X1, Costco warehouse stores have display models in both locations in my city. I am impressed with them and the price at Costco is second to none before the occasional sale. The only thing I don't like is the proprietary Ethernet port which doubles as part of Lenovo's dock connector.

Edit: I've never seen a Matebook in person but I would love to find a place which displays them.

The X1 Carbon is that same min-ethernet port as the X1 Extreme I am assuming? Yeah, needs a dongle, but for anyone using a new Mac, that's nothing new I guess. But a full-size port would have been nice.

The Microsoft Store near my house has the Matebook X Pro on display, but availability seems to be an issue with Huawei? They are always out of stock beyond the display model.

 

[Val-kyrie]

The transition to powerpc occurred when Steve was in exile, no?

I was referring to the transition from PPC to Intel.

 

[Queen6]

How is customer support/service for Hauwei. I have always been intrigued by the MateBook X Pro, except for a couple of small caveats. I hate their logo which looks like a cross between the NBC peacock and Japan Airlines and more important, I don't know enough about their customer support/warranty/after purchase care.

Great but we have Huawei Store's here, lot like the Apple stores of old where they have interesting products. Very much a two way process as they were stumped as how to get English language W10 on a CN system, delighted once I showed them. Over all a very genuine experience, staff will help you to the best of their abilities and not afraid to think outside the box.

Now if you want real computer nerds, you need to visit my local ASUS ROG Store, these guy's are nuts....

Q-6

 

[poorcody]

I’ll assign more weight to the data AppleInsider collected than the anecdotal evidence and speculation you’ve put forth.

But using your own methodology, if the failure rate is truly the 30% or higher you claim, it would be “statistically impossible” for @poorcody to buy 11 units and have no problems with any of them, after banging away on them for almost two years, right?

But according to him, I am just a liar.

 

[Queen6]

IF AppleInsider gets the data. You should check the CBC investigation report (available online) which proves that repairable issues are sold as "better to replace your Mac" by staffers. And fighting the right to repair.

Stats are not heuristics. AppleInsider's 2000 units sample is simply too small. How many times I called Apple Support and they shipped me a replacement unit bypassing the store? No amount of figures you provide, 1-10% does not produce the results you claim. It is not just Casey Johnson, but a legion of Apple users with multiple repeats. Now, Casey Johnson uses hers journalistically, so 500,000 typed words in 2-3 years is REASONABLE. Her getting 3 fails, and all others claiming 4- we are now talking with 30% FAIL RATE BECAUSE MATH SAY SO UNIVERSALLY. 25,000,000 units. 10% = one in a thousand odds. Multiple people reporting the same enters the astronomical level. ASSUME 30% or more AND THAT ASSUMPTION MAKES SENSE.

Second assumption that does not make sensE: USE. I walked in Apple store and found DAY OLD demos already not working. Some, like in the video link below, used as a LG 4k monitor, so it is not used for actual demo typing. Video says it all. Ok, if you assume 1/10 then that should have been the only one. i found 3 out of 8 2018 displayed units having the issue.

The 250,000 is a reasonable extrapolation. then you have to use the industrial failure rate and degradation. If 10% first year, Year 4 is usually usually x300% so 10% year one - 30% year 4. However, absent data and the fragility of the system, am not willing to venture such low figures, e.g. 30%.

But no matter what you believe, if users come complain that they get, with reasonable use, 3-4 replacement keyboards in months, the failure rate for that batch and usage type IS 30% or higher. Not what you think, sample or not. It is an industrial degradation and reliability benchmark. Same way NO ONE leaves a car lot with THREE LEMONS IN A ROW FOR THE EXACT SAME ISSUE. If SO, the entire batch was messed. Now, if only 10% of Macbook users actually type as I do or Casey Johnson, that is a different story. So we are now talking 0.3x 2,500.000= 750,000 units per year. But the 10% makes no sense, the assumption is not mathematically cogent to explain repeat failures in identical circumstances. Or me walking in Apple stores and finding new demos with unresponsive keys. What is the usage then? It resting on the table?

IF it was 10%, that is actually industrially acceptable (maybe not Apple and not legally for the price). 1 percent Apple would be laughing. At 30%, Apple institutes a massive recall. And, as I pointed out, even the low usage 12" unit has users reporting failures.

If 30% of users use the pro's solidly for school, then it is 2.25 million defective units/ year. Still a lot.

Anyway, video below. New, unused unit. Apple staffers pretended "We do not get it, it is never used!" lol. I do. Math is fun!

Apple's not worthy of my custom simple as that, I vetoed everything...

Q-6

 

[SDColorado]

Great but we have Huawei Store's here, lot like the Apple stores of old where they have interesting products. Very much a two way process as they were stumped as how to get English language W10 on a CN system, delighted once I showed them. Over all a very genuine experience, staff will help you to the best of their abilities and not afraid to think outside the box.

Now if you want real computer nerds, you need to visit my local ASUS ROG Store, these guy's are nuts....

Q-6

We don’t have the Huawei stores or Asus ROG stores. The Microsoft Store carries some of each and Microcenter has some of the Asus ROG models, but no local stores for either.

Huawei always seems to be out of stock at the local MS store, so guessing there are maybe some supply chain issues to the US market?

 

[cmaier]

I was referring to the transition from PPC to Intel.

Everyone always ignores that first transition, which, IMHO, was the more amazing of the two.

 

[zahill]

I also have this problem with a 13' mbp aged two months. My cmd key is not always activated, the e, space, t and s keys are sometimes activated several times... It is impossible to write correctly, and even to do web development.
I am freelance, it is my work tool, and I have invested all my savings in this 13' pro macbook at 2000€.
I haven't contacted apple support yet, but I admit I don't know what to do: I can't do without my computer, I use it every day to work and earn a living.

I hope Apple will find a solution.

 

[Val-kyrie]

Everyone always ignores that first transition, which, IMHO, was the more amazing of the two.

Yeah, I just wasn't part of the transition to PPC.

 

[SDColorado]

I'll see whether the space bar problem resolves itself and whether further keys begin to fail but my trust in the It Just Works brand is gone.

Well you know it won't fix itself. Look at it as an early warning of things to come and be happy it occurred within the return period. Otherwise, it is a bit like a car where it sputters and stalls and then and the check engine light comes on. Then it goes off for a while and it seems to drive fine. You wishfully hope it will somehow fix itself, but deep down you *really* know that it won't and when the light comes back on, it may be a bigger problem than it was before.

I can appreciate the draw to the Apple eco, I struggle with the same thing, which is why I went for a fourth round after swearing when I returned #3 that I was done.

Also, like you, I went for a more expensive model, because they had it in the store and because it was more convenient than the constant waiting for one to arrive from China, shipping it back to Apple, rinse and repeat cycle I was going through. But at the end of the 14-days with #4, I just could not bring myself to hold on to it.

 

[navaira]

Also, like you, I went for a more expensive model, because they had it in the store and because it was more convenient than the constant waiting for one to arrive from China, shipping it back to Apple, rinse and repeat cycle I was going through. But at the end of the 14-days with #4, I just could not bring myself to hold on to it.

Ehhh... The reseller I use (I am SO HAPPY I didn't go straight to Apple...!) has a 30-day return period. So I can still "afford" to wait for the next week's event. But really, right now I am torn between Matebook X Pro because it's pretty and X1 Carbon because of all the positive reviews of its keyboard and possibility of Hackintoshing. Oddly though almost all X1 Carbon models have disappeared from the online stores here. November refresh? The 15.6" Extreme is just too large for me, and apparently Yoga C930 has a different keyboard that's not as good as the X1 Carbon ones.

I don't think there really is anything Apple can do anymore to convince me that those keyboards are going to be reliable in the long term. As much as I hate Windows...I hate those keyboards more. I fail to understand how it's possible to ruin a €2000+ laptop with something so ridiculous. I just don't get it. This is the third generation. How much money did this cost Apple by now?

Going to contact the Apple ER tomorrow. I had to install Unshaky again to be able to work and in the last four hours it caught 22 sticky space bar presses. The other keys work so far, but I'm not holding my breath.

My cmd key is not always activated, the e, space, t and s keys are sometimes activated several times...

I had a problem with E in the previous three MBPs, space bar in two out of three plus the current fourth one, T and S at least in one. (I should have written that down.) The E key seems to fail the most often.

 

[SDColorado]

Ehhh... The reseller I use (I am SO HAPPY I didn't go straight to Apple...!) has a 30-day return period. So I can still "afford" to wait for the next week's event. But really, right now I am torn between Matebook X Pro because it's pretty and X1 Carbon because of all the positive reviews of its keyboard and possibility of Hackintoshing. Oddly though almost all X1 Carbon models have disappeared from the online stores here. November refresh? The 15.6" Extreme is just too large for me, and apparently Yoga C930 has a different keyboard that's not as good as the X1 Carbon ones.

I don't think there really is anything Apple can do anymore to convince me that those keyboards are going to be reliable in the long term. As much as I hate Windows...I hate those keyboards more. I fail to understand how it's possible to ruin a €2000+ laptop with something so ridiculous. I just don't get it. This is the third generation. How much money did this cost Apple by now?

Going to contact the Apple ER tomorrow. I had to install Unshaky again to be able to work and in the last four hours it caught 22 sticky space bar presses. The other keys work so far, but I'm not holding my breath.


I had a problem with E in the previous three MBPs, space bar in two out of three plus the current fourth one, T and S at least in one. (I should have written that down.) The E key seems to fail the most often.

I suppose a Lenovo refresh might be possible on the X1 Carbon. Obviously the X1E is new, so nothing coming there. But maybe a Carbon refresh or some kind of Black Friday blowout?

Yeah, the X1 Extreme will seem very large compared to the 13” MacBook Pro for sure. The MateBook Pro is obviously the closest in size, but X1 Carbon also a good choice with a great keyboard. Dell XPS 13 maybe another contender? But I know nothing about it’s Hackintosh-abilty.

But if you do decide to go the Lenovo route, I am thinking a little dust won’t be an issue...

 

[navaira]

Dell XPS 13 maybe another contender? But I know nothing about it’s Hackintosh-abilty.

Apparently 9360 is fine since you can replace the wifi card, but 9370 makes it impossible. It's my third choice. I need to ideally find a store where I could compare all three. The Matebook nose-camera isn't a problem for me since I hardly ever use video chat at all. My main concerns now, apart from a working keyboard which I think all non-Apple laptops have are the trackpad, Hackintoshability and portability in more or less this order. X1 Carbon seems to offer the most possibilities, not to mention the fact it's actually upgradeable.

I had a rMB 2016 before and it was perfect for the light usage. Now I wish I didn't get rid of it. But I never expected that the first gen butterfly keyboard would prove to be much better than 2nd and 3rd. If I resurrect the Hackintosh for heavier lifting I don't need a 16 GB/1 TB laptop at all, so I'll end up saving tons of money. Perhaps extra €1500 on my account will slightly sweeten the fact I will have to live with Windows...

 

[ROSC00]

But according to him, I am just a liar.

Nope, you have to be a good sport. Changing someone's arguments into what they are not is called a STRAWMAN. Essentially making up something that is not real, than challenging it. What I wrote is that you are not a known reliable and credible source (not like Casey Johnson) as you have no established credentials. That is a fact. Consequently, unless you post a video testing said 11 MBPs, all you have is AN UNVERIFIED CLAIM. Fact #2. None of these call you a liar, but the rebuttal technique you used, changing someone's words, inches close to that. Quote do not misquote.
[doublepost=1540334672][/doublepost]

“use anecdotally the same irrelevant numbers to guess and extrapolate from an inexistant sample base some generalized conclusion” describes exactly how you have arrived at your 30% number.

We know beyond a doubt that you do not work with math, stats or industrial based knowledge. What I wrote and it is a PROBABILISTIC CALCULATION that you do not comprehend, THAT TO GET three repeat failures in a row YOU MUST have a failure rate above 30%, (60% for 4) and it follows an EXPONENTIAL probabilistic curve. I know, you do not understand the fol words: STATS, PROBABILISTIC, EXPONENTIAL, HYPOTHESIS, EMPIRICAL lol. Giving you a formula that you do not understand will not make me sound smarter no more that anything you say can but make you sound dumber. If you do not comprehend that you cannot have 1-10% failure rate and 3-4 failure units in a row, you just lack that entire math and stat education piece. Makes you sound like a caveman challenging moon landings because he never saw or touched rocket..

Keynode 2016? Forecast design problems. 2017? Called butterjam 2.0 still a problem. 2018 membrane patent launched? Looked and read the patent, forecasted more problems. This analytic skillset eludes you, I breathe it like a second rate hobby since acing those classes eons ago.

it is not this audience's fault that you do not comprehend math. At least you made progress, not quoting AI as data... lol
[doublepost=1540335010][/doublepost]

I suppose a Lenovo refresh might be possible on the X1 Carbon. Obviously the X1E is new, so nothing coming there. But maybe a Carbon refresh or some kind of Black Friday blowout?

Yeah, the X1 Extreme will seem very large compared to the 13” MacBook Pro for sure. The MateBook Pro is obviously the closest in size, but X1 Carbon also a good choice with a great keyboard. Dell XPS 13 maybe another contender? But I know nothing about it’s Hackintosh-abilty.

But if you do decide to go the Lenovo route, I am thinking a little dust won’t be an issue...

Lenovo hands down. If you care about using the same tools that Doctors Without Borders, field workers, archeologists and the odd special forces and foreign task forces use in combat operations from temperate climates to desert. Yes, they are clunkier and not as refined looking as the Macs, but they work. My only holdback on owning one was the low res screen (carbon resolved it) and Windows 10, which really has improved dramatically past years.

Dell XPS is a joke: overheats as it uses polycarbonate trapped between two silly aluminium shelves. The ThinkPad is just far far better built and cooled.
[doublepost=1540335111][/doublepost]

I also have this problem with a 13' mbp aged two months. My cmd key is not always activated, the e, space, t and s keys are sometimes activated several times... It is impossible to write correctly, and even to do web development.
I am freelance, it is my work tool, and I have invested all my savings in this 13' pro macbook at 2000€.
I haven't contacted apple support yet, but I admit I don't know what to do: I can't do without my computer, I use it every day to work and earn a living.

I hope Apple will find a solution.

If you paid it with your CC you can make a claim via your CC. CCs have long protection periods for refunds, AND a 1-2 extra years warranty more. But I would refund it via the CC. With Visa I get up to 6 months.

 

[PickUrPoison]

Nope, you have to be a good sport. Changing someone's arguments into what they are not is called a STRAWMAN. Essentially making up something that is not real, than challenging it. What I wrote is that you are not a known reliable and credible source (not like Casey Johnson) as you have no established credentials. That is a fact. Consequently, unless you post a video testing said 11 MBPs, all you have is AN UNVERIFIED CLAIM. Fact #2. None of these call you a liar, but the rebuttal technique you used, changing someone's words, inches close to that. Quote do not misquote.
[doublepost=1540334672][/doublepost]

We know beyond a doubt that you do not work with math, stats or industrial based knowledge. What I wrote and it is a PROBABILISTIC CALCULATION that you do not comprehend, THAT TO GET three repeat failures in a row YOU MUST have a failure rate above 30%, (60% for 4) and it follows an EXPONENTIAL probabilistic curve. I know, you do not understand the fol words: STATS, PROBABILISTIC, EXPONENTIAL, HYPOTHESIS, EMPIRICAL lol. Giving you a formula that you do not understand will not make me sound smarter no more that anything you say can but make you sound dumber. If you do not comprehend that you cannot have 1-10% failure rate and 3-4 failure units in a row, you just lack that entire math and stat education piece. Makes you sound like a caveman challenging moon landings because he never saw or touched rocket..

Keynode 2016? Forecast design problems. 2017? Called butterjam 2.0 still a problem. 2018 membrane patent launched? Looked and read the patent, forecasted more problems. This analytic skillset eludes you, I breathe it like a second rate hobby since acing those classes eons ago.

it is not this audience's fault that you do not comprehend math. At least you made progress, not quoting AI as data... lol
[doublepost=1540335010][/doublepost]

Lenovo hands down. If you care about using the same tools that Doctors Without Borders, field workers, archeologists and the odd special forces and foreign task forces use in combat operations from temperate climates to desert. Yes, they are clunkier and not as refined looking as the Macs, but they work. My only holdback on owning one was the low res screen (carbon resolved it) and Windows 10, which really has improved dramatically past years.

Dell XPS is a joke: overheats as it uses polycarbonate trapped between two silly aluminium shelves. The ThinkPad is just far far better built and cooled.

Nice ad hominem attack.

Using anecdotal reports instead of actual data makes your attempted analysis worthless. Garbage in, garbage out.

 

[ROSC00]

Apple's not worthy of my custom simple as that, I vetoed everything...

Q-6

Those well off can shrug off 2,000-6,000$. Those middle class incomes, have the right to feel brutally let down by the experience.
[doublepost=1540335364][/doublepost]

Using anecdotal reports instead of actual data makes your attempted analysis worthless. Garbage in, garbage out.

yes, you mean your garbage using some gimmick informal survey to generalize an industrial benchmark? lol... You just do not get math, that is a fact, admit it and carry on... keep telling yourself or to those with repeat KB failures that they are dealing with a 1-10% likelihood, and I can show you the village i***t. lol

Mega million is at 1 in 300 million odds. 4 defective KB at 1% is 1 n one hundred million or only three times less. yea, the forum is filled with mega million odds repeats. LoL

 

[PickUrPoison]

yes, you mean your garbage using some gimmick informal survey to generalize an industrial benchmark? lol... You just do not get math, that is a fact, admit it and carry on... keep telling yourself or to those with repeat KB failures that they are dealing with a 1-10% likelihood, and I can show you the village i***t. lol

Anecdotal reports aren’t relevant, and no number of ad hominem attacks will make them so. But by all means, continue with your attempts to insult me.

There’s no indication that Apple’s had 3-4 million failing MBP every year, right?

 

[ROSC00]

Anecdotal reports aren’t relevant, and no number of ad hominem attacks will make them so. But by all means, continue with your attempts to insult me.

There’s no indication that Apple’s had 3-4 million failing MBP every year, right?

It is not ad hominem if stating evident observations especially the way you brushed math aside and what that means. A hypothetical scenario that makes someone looks smart or dumb is still a hypothetical scenario. Had I written "x is dumb' that is quite direct. If saying "If x keeps saying a b c d he will come across as dumb, not so."

Apple's operations financial disclosures for 2014 reveal a 10% repair budget (150-200 million USD). That does not tell us the distribution of these costs per device. Current operating costs at 8 billion, going up with more and more devices shipped so a ballpark 500-800 million RMA expenses min if their 10% remained as such. If they ship 25 million macbooks, many which cost only a bit more than some iPhones, would not be surprised to hear that Iphones have a 5% RMA cost and Macs 15-20%. Either case it is 2-5 million units per year.

"Failing" is another word that we do not know what it means. If it is an out fan replacement, small thing. KB replacement, 500$ per unit, is major. Many users have MBPs with KB issues and I would not describe them crashing/failing/DOA as my prev units.

therefore, on sheer RMA operating budget, 3-4 million Mac repairs is reasonable, but LOW. If Macbooks are 30% of repairs, that is 150 million USD or max 500,000 Macbook Pro KB failures (at 300$/ KB). If Apple actually pays 150$ per kb (even though charging 700 before the recall), that is one million KB replacements. Other repairs, like fans, are sub 100$ so negligible. DOA/ Logiboard failures- batteries, unknown.

The 29$ battery replacement program had apple set aside 2 Bn $ or for 70 million devices.

Caveat- need the 2018 RMA sheets to see a spike related to this issue. The RMA number will give a good clue. if it shot to 1-1.5 Bn for this fiscal year following the free repair offer, then you and I know that it is over 2-3 millions MBP KB/year. Even with write off RMA 1-2 Bn $, and a forecast (my forecast) 4 year warranty replacement cost of 4-10Bn $, the company is so profitable that this is still peanuts vs its liquid reserves.. May only drop shares by tiny bits for 2 weeks.

 

[PickUrPoison]

It is not ad hominem if stating evident observations especially the way you brushed math aside and what that means. A hypothetical scenario that makes someone looks smart or dumb is still a hypothetical scenario. Had I written "x is dumb' that is quite direct. If saying "If x keeps saying a b c d he will come across as dumb, not so."

Apple's operations financial disclosures for 2014 reveal a 10% repair budget (150-200 million USD). That does not tell us the distribution of these costs per device. Current operating costs at 8 billion, going up with more and more devices shipped so a ballpark 500-800 million RMA expenses min if their 10% remained as such. If they ship 25 million macbooks, many which cost only a bit more than some iPhones, would not be surprised to hear that Iphones have a 5% RMA cost and Macs 15-20%. Either case it is 2-5 million units per year.

"Failing" is another word that we do not know what it means. If it is an out fan replacement, small thing. KB replacement, 500$ per unit, is major. Many users have MBPs with KB issues and I would not describe them crashing/failing/DOA as my prev units.

therefore, on sheer RMA operating budget, 3-4 million Mac repairs is reasonable, but LOW. If Macbooks are 30% of repairs, that is 150 million USD or max 500,000 Macbook Pro KB failures (at 300$/ KB). If Apple actually pays 150$ per kb (even though charging 700 before the recall), that is one million KB replacements. Other repairs, like fans, are sub 100$ so negligible. DOA/ Logiboard failures- batteries, unknown.

The 29$ battery replacement program had apple set aside 2 Bn $ or for 70 million devices.

Caveat- need the 2018 RMA sheets to see a spike related to this issue. The RMA number will give a good clue. if it shot to 1-1.5 Bn for this fiscal year following the free repair offer, then you and I know that it is over 2-3 millions MBP KB/year. Even with write off RMA 1-2 Bn $, and a forecast (my forecast) 4 year warranty replacement cost of 4-10Bn $, the company is so profitable that this is still peanuts vs its liquid reserves.. May only drop shares by tiny bits for 2 weeks.

As you know, the AppleInsider data show the frequency of keyboard repairs for the 2017 model is rather close to the 2015 model, 8.2% vs 6.0%.

Interestingly, their latest data show no increased frequency of keyboard-related service requests after Apple announced the keyboard repair program. It seems there’s just not that many keyboards that need fixing.

Neither of the above facts support your speculation of 30+% failure rates.

 

[ROSC00]

It is not ad hominem if stating evident observations especially the way you brushed math aside and what that means. A hypothetical scenario that makes someone looks smart or dumb is still a hypothetical scenario. Had I written "x is dumb' that is quite direct. If saying "If x keeps saying a b c d he will come across as dumb, not so."

Apple's operations financial disclosures for 2014 reveal a 10% repair budget (150-200 million USD). That does not tell us the distribution of these costs per device. Current operating costs at 8 billion, going up with more and more devices shipped so a ballpark 500-800 million RMA expenses min if their 10% remained as such. If they ship 25 million macbooks, many which cost only a bit more than some iPhones, would not be surprised to hear that Iphones have a 5% RMA cost and Macs 15-20%. Either case it is 2-5 million units per year.

"Failing" is another word that we do not know what it means. If it is an out fan replacement, small thing. KB replacement, 500$ per unit, is major. Many users have MBPs with KB issues and I would not describe them crashing/failing/DOA as my prev units. Therefore, on sheer RMA operating budget, 3-4 million Mac repairs is reasonable, but LOW. If Macbooks are 30% of repairs, that is 150 million USD or max 500,000 Macbook Pro KB failures (at 300$/ KB). If Apple actually pays 150$ per kb (even though charging 700 before the recall), that is one million KB replacements. Other repairs, like fans, are sub 100$ so negligible. DOA/ Logiboard failures- batteries, unknown. AND, if rumours have it, the actual cost to manufacture the KB is 100$, and it triples it before originally charging an obscene 700$ (labour testing etc), it means that within its RMA Appel can be repairing far more units than we can estimate based on a 500-700$ metric. Then agaon they charge 800$ per logicboard, and factory computers make that for 45% of that- and it is a logicboard with fixed BOM costs for SSD, RAM, PC GPU. But KB? For all I know it actually costs 50$ to make those plastic buttons and rubber..

The 29$ battery replacement program had apple set aside 2 Bn $ or for 70 million devices.

Caveat- need the 2018 RMA sheets to see a spike related to this issue. The RMA number will give a good clue. if it shot to 1-1.5 Bn for this fiscal year following the free repair offer, then you and I know that it is over 2-3 millions MBP KB/year. Even with write off RMA 1-2 Bn $, and a forecast (my forecast) 4 year warranty replacement cost of 4-10Bn $, the company is so profitable that this is still peanuts vs its liquid reserves.. May only drop shares by tiny bits for 2 weeks.

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As you know, the AppleInsider data show the frequency of keyboard repairs for the 2017 model is rather close to the 2015 model, 8.2% vs 6.0%.

Interestingly, their latest data show no increased frequency of keyboard-related service requests after Apple announced the keyboard repair program. It seems there’s just not that many keyboards that need fixing.

Neither of the above facts support your speculation of 30+% failure rates.

You are taking things out of context. At work, 100% of our laptops are used on DOCKING STATIONS with external KBs. with the occasional trip and KB use. The laptop KBs do not get used for years. So 30% was for those USING the units, typing or heat inducing applications. Many people do not use the units at 10% of gabarit (my mother being a prime example).

But actual users getting repeat failures suggests, unequivocally, a 30% or higher failure rate WITH USE. Or funny luck finding 1/3 busted in two Apple stores. For me FAILURE is ANY slowly or unresponsive key. JUST ONE. For some, it is 5-6 completely unresponsive keys. You had people above writing having the issue but not even having brought it in. In store I found 2-3 keys and the worse, that I filmed a cluster of 6 unresponsive keys. Completely unresponsive.

Casey Johnson is a power user like me that does not accept 1-2 unresponsive or not working keys. Others might.

Since the program has just been instituted, you need Q1 2019 for the 2018 numbers to come in. Wait and see. in 2019 they will spike further, 2020 even more as more units fail (exponentially of course) year 3 and 4 of ownership.

This problem will only get worse, that is a forecast and a promise. If not so I will bow in your deference.

 

[poorcody]

Nope, you have to be a good sport. Changing someone's arguments into what they are not is called a STRAWMAN. Essentially making up something that is not real, than challenging it. What I wrote is that you are not a known reliable and credible source (not like Casey Johnson) as you have no established credentials. That is a fact. Consequently, unless you post a video testing said 11 MBPs, all you have is AN UNVERIFIED CLAIM. Fact #2. None of these call you a liar, but the rebuttal technique you used, changing someone's words, inches close to that. Quote do not misquote.

Wow. You should have your own cable news show.

Five+ years on MacRumors, and you are the only the second person I am putting on my ignore list.