iPhone X Remained World's Most Popular Smartphone Last Quarter Despite Concerns About Poor Sales

[manu chao]

OK. Now apply that “normal to discontinue” implication to the 6s and 7 still for sale in the Apple store, with the 8 long since available.

So you admit that your 'less than one year' point was de facto phoney?

You treat every deviation from the norm (Apple keeps the same model around at a reduced price in their second and often also third year of their existence) as only being explainable by poor sales. Well, we expect to have a second deviation from that pattern in September. The first deviation obviously wasn't because of poor sales (of the iPhone 5) but that doesn't stop you from saying that poor sales are the only explanation this time.

Ignoring completely that quite a number of things were already different in this cycle. We got three new phones last September (and not just the same kind of phone in three different sizes), one of them being significantly more expensive. The next cycle again looks to be different (sure, an iPhone X.2 and a X.2 Plus, but also a 6.2" LCD one), plus the iPhone X.2 is rumoured to be a bit cheaper. So, many things are different from the longtime pattern, but again, to you only look at one of the deviations (iPhone X only being sold for a year) as if all the other changes in the lineup weren't happening.

 

[EugW]

I was just about to dig out last years data but you beat me to it.

In comparison there is absolutely no “super bowl winner” here (well, given the higher profit per device there is obviously one on the shareholders side). The X - despite being “the most innovative product on the market” - couldn’t even sell more units than the iPhone 7 Plus did last year in Q2. Which was basically just the third update of a two year old model, already selling significantly less units than the original iPhone 6!

Seems pretty clear the X couldn’t attract a considerable amount of new customers like previous new iPhone generations did, it only cut into Apples already existing userbase - and the majority of them choose not to buy it (16 million vs. 20.8 million).

If Apple had stuck to their traditional marketing and pricing strategy, this thing probably would have been a massive hit - both on customers and investors sides.

(I have to admit that I have no clue if there would have been some limitations in the supply chain preventing Apple from releasing the X only - but week-long shipping times after release never hindered iPhone sales in the past.)

I expect supply chain issues were not the main concern here, given the numerous reports that suppliers lower component sales than expected.

 

[curtvaughan]

The iPhone 5 was a roaring success yet discontinued after 1 year.

Part of the reason for that was the shift from a 32-bit to a 64-bit phone. The 5 was the last model to run iOS 32-bit.

 

[EugW]

Part of the reason for that was the shift from a 32-bit to a 64-bit phone. The 5 was the last model to run iOS 32-bit.

Incorrect. The 5C was the last model to run iOS 32-bit. IOW, the 32-bit 5 was replaced by another 32-bit model.

 

[Cosmosent]

Fact check time:

Strategy Analytics states that 30.7% of the iPhones sold during the Qtr were iPhone X units ... seems way too high to me ... I believe the # is much, much closer to 10M units:

1.) 52.2M - 16.0M - 12.5M - 8.3M - 5.6M = 9.8M for the 7+, 6s, 6s+, & the SE.

2.) One assumption needs to be made, "the mix" between Lower NAND Flash Storage devices AND Higher NAND Flash Storage devices ... I'll assume 4x more Lower, AND ONLY for the new models; otherwise, it's the Low NAND Flash Storage option.

3.) $1149(0.077) + $999(.23) +
$949(0.06) + $799(.18) +
$848(0.04) + $699(.119) +
$549(.107) = $694.85 (for the top 81.2% of the units sold)

4.) So that leaves us with $728 - $694.84 = $33.16 for the remaining 100%-81.2% = 18.8% (again, this covers the 7+, 6s, 6s+, & SE)

Let's try it with the SE, the least-expensive option ... if it's less than or equal to $33.16, then it's (i.e., the #s from Strategy Analytics is) plausible:

$349(.188) = $65.61 <--- Apparently Strategy Analytics has NO knowledge of simple math !!!

Furthermore, do you think Apple sold ZERO 7+, 6s & 6s+, each had a $100 Price Drop on Sept 12th ??? (vs ONLY $50 for the SE)

Clearly the math does NOT add up !!!

5.) IMO, macrumors (& other websites) should be verifying such #s themselves, to make sure they are at least possible, BEFORE posting such Articles !!!

6.) I strongly believe there is a fair chance AAPL sold less than 10M iPhone X units during the Jan-March Qtr ... math doesn't lie ... we know the ASP and we know the #s of units !

Any 10 year old Kid, or even a well-trained Monkey, could probably DE-bunk the #s coming from the so-called Pro Stock Analysts !

7.) Feel free to check my math.

 

[manu chao]

Another thing though that has me doubting some of the numbers here:

when you remove the top listed, the stats here say that 292m other devices sold... if none of those are in the top list, and none of them sold more than 5m devices, than that means there are a minimum of 60+ devices in that "other" category.

I would love to see a complete breakdown of the rest of those numbers, because historically reports like this have a weird way of segregrating certain devices to make their numbers smaller (for example, breaking apart sku's based on storage sizes for some devices, but not others)

That breakdown doesn't exist (outside of their respective manufacturers' books). People put in an effort to to try to get a number of the highest selling phone models. Nobody will bother to find out how much any of the $100 or $200 phones sold.

 

[LordVic]

Sure it does. People vote with their wallets after carefully considering the value proposition and looking at other alternatives. Especially for a premium-priced device. You might want to consider not projecting your personal views and feelings, and how you make purchase decisions, onto millions of others.

The market has voted.

no

Best selling doesn't mean quality.

as I joked in another post: If quality was determined exclusively based on profit and "wallet", than musically we'd consider Backstreet boys and NSync or whatever the popular pop music is today as the best musicians and performers too. But we don't do that because there's low correlation between profitability and quality in modern day of age.

Not saying the iPhone isn't high quality, it is. But when you bring profit numbers into it, it actually counters your own point. Apple's profit margins and numbers increase while at the same time volume hasn't significantly moved. this mean s more people aren't generally buying Apples devices. People who are buying Apple devices are willing to pay more. Does that mean they're getting the best product? Not necessarily. However, if it fits their needs and fits their value proposition, than they, as the spender of their own money have every right to spend it where they want.


But don't equate profit margins for proof of quality. This doesn't just go for Apple, but the entire consumer world

 

[franzkfk]

Sure it does. People vote with their wallets after carefully considering the value proposition and looking at other alternatives. Especially for a premium-priced device. You might want to consider not projecting your personal views and feelings, and how you make purchase decisions, onto millions of others.

The market has voted.

I usually doesn't react on these kind of forum things ... but ... This is the most ridiculous and stupid statement I have ever seen on the internet (and there are some heavy stuff out there). Do you also think that McDonalds is the best restaurant? May I ask how old are you?

There is NO correlation between "wallet" and "quality".

Actually the iPhone X has a psychological effect of a "new toy". There are some people who went back from X to 8 Plus. This effect is caused by almost the same design for four generations.

In my opinion the X has a two design flaws. The aspect ratio which is really strange and the Face ID which is less practical than Touch ID.

 

[NoNothing]

Again, some of you are getting fooled by the way the numbers have been framed. As mentioned before, reports were that OLED sales were less than expected.

And you are getting folded by thinking the iPhone X is the only top tier phone using OLED displays. Every analyst assumed if OLED imply shipments were not meeting expectations the sole explanation was the iPhone X was not meeting expectations.

 

[LordVic]

I usually doesn't react on these kind of forum things ... but ... This is the most ridiculous and stupid statement I have ever seen on the internet (and there are some heavy stuff out there). Do you also think that McDonalds is the best restaurant? May I ask how old are you?

There is NO correlation between "wallet" and "quality".

Actually the iPhone X has a psychological effect of a "new toy". There are some people who went back from X to 8 Plus. This effect is caused by almost the same design for four generations.

In my opinion the X has a two design flaws. The aspect ratio which is really strange and the Face ID which is less practical than Touch ID.

see, I would have said lack of 3.5mm headphone jack was a X flaw too

 

[manu chao]

Fact check time:

Strategy Analytics states that 30.7% of the iPhones sold during the Qtr were iPhone X units ... seems way too high to me ... I believe the # is much, much closer to 10M units:

1.) 52.2M - 16.0M - 12.5M - 8.3M - 5.6M = 9.8M for the 7+, 6s, 6s+, & the SE.

2.) One assumption needs to be made, "the mix" between Lower NAND Flash Storage devices AND Higher NAND Flash Storage devices ... I'll assume 4x more Lower, AND ONLY for the new models; otherwise, it's the Low NAND Flash Storage option.

3.) $1149(0.077) + $999(.23) +
$949(0.06) + $799(.18) +
$848(0.04) + $699(.119) +
$549(.107) = $694.85 (for the top 81.2% of the units sold)

4.) So that leaves us with $728 - $694.84 = $33.16 for the remaining 100%-81.2% = 18.8% (again, this covers the 7+, 6s, 6s+, & SE)

Let's try it with the SE, the least-expensive option ... if it's less than or equal to $33.16, then it's (i.e., the #s from Strategy Analytics is) plausible:

$349(.188) = $65.61 <--- Apparently Strategy Analytics has NO knowledge of simple math !!!

Furthermore, do you think Apple sold ZERO 7+, 6s & 6s+, each had a $100 Price Drop on Sept 12th ??? (vs ONLY $50 for the SE)

Clearly the math does NOT add up !!!

5.) IMO, macrumors (& other websites) should be verifying such #s themselves, to make sure they are at least possible, BEFORE posting such Articles !!!

6.) I strongly believe there is a fair chance AAPL sold less than 10M iPhone X units during the Jan-March Qtr ... math doesn't lie ... we know the ASP and we know the #s of units !

When you plug in that less than 10M iPhone X number into your calculations, can you come up with a sales mix that adds up to 52M, fits the reported average sales price and the fact that the iPhone X was the best-selling iPhone model?

 

[curtvaughan]

Incorrect. The 5C was the last model to run iOS 32-bit. IOW, the 32-bit 5 was replaced by another 32-bit model.

The 5c and the 5 were basically the same phone, but yes, technically you are correct. The details are in the link below. My original assertion remains: the model 5 (and yes, 5c) were discontinued quite soon after their releases. iOS support for them both expired in May, 2017.

https://www.getorchard.com/blog/iphone-5-vs-iphone-5c/

 

[manu chao]

And yet we generally seem to believe it will be discontinued less than 1 year after release anyway. That should at least make us think.

How long will you keep pushing that phoney argument? You know exactly that there will be an iPhone X.2 that will very similar to the iPhone X (the first iteration always is) that will be sold at a similar price (even if likely about $100 cheaper). Start with that simple element and ask yourself how Apple could keep selling the iPhone X at $100 less when the iPhone X.2 will also be $100 less than the current iPhone X price?

 

[Rafamrqs1]

Interesting to see though, the 8 was quite a bit more popular than the 8 plus and the 7 is still way more popular than the 7 plus. Also the X is smaller than the plus models. Are people losing interest in massive handsets?

I know I am. I just wish they will offer the smaller phone with the same RAM and camera this time.

 

[alexmarchuk]

Coming from a 6, the X is the best thing since sliced bread. Using face ID to sign into app services is a godsend. The only thing I don't like about my X? Too many accidental screenshots and how it doesn't lie flat on a surface.

Face ID was a godsend because Touch ID for me never worked reliably because of my messed up fingerprints (burns, scratches, etc).

 

[alllexx]

Because it was replaced by the 5S.

Yeah but usually the previous iPhones are still sold for a couple year afterwards. The iPhone 5 was not. Is the rumor that Apple is going to kill the iPhone X and NOT replace it with something else?

 

[dingle19]

i dont know how people can think the X wasnt very successful. other manufacturers (in true competitive fashion) are already cloning the notch design

 

[alllexx]

Part of the reason for that was the shift from a 32-bit to a 64-bit phone. The 5 was the last model to run iOS 32-bit.

They still sold the iPhone 4s (2011, 32-bit A5) AFTER discontinuing the iPhone 5 (2012, 32-bit A6).

 

[minik]

Interesting to see though, the 8 was quite a bit more popular than the 8 plus and the 7 is still way more popular than the 7 plus. Also the X is smaller than the plus models. Are people losing interest in massive handsets?

I jumped on to the large screen phone bandwagon with the iPhone 6S Plus, it kept falling out from my jacket and it's simply too big for me. When the iPhone SE came out, I quickly get one of them. Since I have multiple devices, the Plus size phone is not for me.

 

[alexmarchuk]

I jumped on to the large screen phone bandwagon with the iPhone 6S Plus, it kept falling out from my jacket and it's simply too big for me. When the iPhone SE came out, I quickly get one of them. Since I have multiple devices, the Plus size phone is not for me.

I jumped on the bandwagon on the 6s too and loved it, however didn’t have problems with falling out. My big complaint was using two hands to handle control center, etc.

The iPhone X was the perfect mix of everything I wanted.

 

[Abazigal]

no

Best selling doesn't mean quality.

as I joked in another post: If quality was determined exclusively based on profit and "wallet", than musically we'd consider Backstreet boys and NSync or whatever the popular pop music is today as the best musicians and performers too. But we don't do that because there's low correlation between profitability and quality in modern day of age.

Not saying the iPhone isn't high quality, it is. But when you bring profit numbers into it, it actually counters your own point. Apple's profit margins and numbers increase while at the same time volume hasn't significantly moved. this mean s more people aren't generally buying Apples devices. People who are buying Apple devices are willing to pay more. Does that mean they're getting the best product? Not necessarily. However, if it fits their needs and fits their value proposition, than they, as the spender of their own money have every right to spend it where they want.


But don't equate profit margins for proof of quality. This doesn't just go for Apple, but the entire consumer world

Sure it does.

What this simply means is that you need to expand your definition of what “best” and “quality” entail.

As for your boyband analogy, I would argue that best is precisely that - best. To their millions of fans, they are the best performers there are. Maybe to you, they don’t compare to heavyweights such as frank Sinatra or the Beegees, and that’s irrelevant, because different people have different definitions of “best”. There are things they love about the backstreet boys. Things which cannot be replicated by other performers or musicians. It’s one package deal. Just like the iPhone. Just like every other product out there.

I am perfectly capable of deciding what’s best for myself, based on factors determined by myself, and I don’t need the likes of you deciding for me or the millions of other people out there just what “best” entails.

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

So you admit that your 'less than one year' point was de facto phoney?

You treat every deviation from the norm (Apple keeps the same model around at a reduced price in their second and often also third year of their existence) as only being explainable by poor sales. Well, we expect to have a second deviation from that pattern in September. The first deviation obviously wasn't because of poor sales (of the iPhone 5) but that doesn't stop you from saying that poor sales are the only explanation this time.

Ignoring completely that quite a number of things were already different in this cycle. We got three new phones last September (and not just the same kind of phone in three different sizes), one of them being significantly more expensive. The next cycle again looks to be different (sure, an iPhone X.2 and a X.2 Plus, but also a 6.2" LCD one), plus the iPhone X.2 is rumoured to be a bit cheaper. So, many things are different from the longtime pattern, but again, to you only look at one of the deviations (iPhone X only being sold for a year) as if all the other changes in the lineup weren't happening.

Good grief man, dont put so many words in someone else’s mouth. I bought this very phone. I bet I paid more for mine than you might have paid for yours. I explicitly disclaimed that this isn’t some Apple or iPhone X attack- just something to think about relative to this story.

If it makes you happy: rah, rah Apple. Apple is great in every way. iPhone is great in every way. Whatever Apple says is always and absolutely true. All hail the Apple.

 

[Mescagnus]

as numbers can be looked at in a variety of ways, I'm just spinning here both sides

Looking at the numbers provided here,

Apple had the highest individual sold devices. top 4. But those top 4 devices only accounted for 12.2% of worldwide smartphone sales for the quarter. And the iPhone X, only accounts for 4% of the worlds smartphone sales.

Is this what was expected or not from Apple? That's the only real question. did they expected iPhone X to be another supercycle or did they expect only 4% of the sales to be the X. (we honestly aren't able to answer this as we're not accountants for Apple).

just doing a compilation of many of the rumours we've heard about the iPhone X's sales, it's still possible that While being the #1 SELLING phone, that they expected still to sell far more of them. At the end of the day, the iPhone8 with a combined sales of 21.13 million devices still outsold the X by 5.13million units.

is the iPhone X a "failure"? anyone who claims this is nuts as it still brought in profits and Apple still maintained their financial goals. But, did it sell as well as Apple originally hoped? that's a statement that is impossible for us to say, however based on rumours prior, I don't think ti sold as well as they had hoped (hoping for anothersupercycle which did not come)

With regard to world's total smartphone sales, I consider this "only 4%" a moot point.

There are hundreds of cheap Android phones on the market. Apple does not really compete for customers in the "the race to bottom" market, as they have stated. A lot of people will never buy, nor can afford to buy, a $500+ smartphone.

A more telling YoY chart / market share chart would be to compare the total worldwide sales of $500+ premium smart phones. In their chosen price segment, Apple dominates.

 

[citysnaps]

I usually doesn't react on these kind of forum things ... but ... This is the most ridiculous and stupid statement I have ever seen on the internet (and there are some heavy stuff out there). Do you also think that McDonalds is the best restaurant? May I ask how old are you?

There is NO correlation between "wallet" and "quality".

Actually the iPhone X has a psychological effect of a "new toy". There are some people who went back from X to 8 Plus. This effect is caused by almost the same design for four generations.

In my opinion the X has a two design flaws. The aspect ratio which is really strange and the Face ID which is less practical than Touch ID.

Calm down.

Why do you need to resort to snarky juvenile insults? That just shows you are out of gas. Are you really incapable of having a normal conversation, and instead need to ridicule to make a point?


"Do you also think that McDonalds is the best restaurant?"

If McDonalds sold millions of burgers a year for $25, I'd be inclined to think so.

 

[mrochester]

Bestselling phone doesn't necessarily equate to best phone. There is an element of herd mentality.

Probably the best way to put it is more people think the iPhone X is the best phone in the world than any other phone.