Kuo: Apple Will Only Produce Up to 80,000 Vision Pro Headsets for Launch, Sellout Likely

[CharlesShaw]

Well...this sort of proves my point. "Expensive" is a calculation of value, and different people value things differently. I'd rather buy the AVP then even go to the concert of my favorite artist, if it cost me $1800. I'd wait for the live 3D version that cost me $49 in the AVP. But in a country where millions of people spend that kind of money on concerts, where the average new car sells for $48k, the AVP is only expensive if you don't value it.

I bought the original iPhone and original Apple Watch and replaced both a generation or two later, but they were not so expensive that I felt like I had wasted money [my $tainelss $teel link bracelet still fits my Ultra]. If I thought I would enjoy the AVP, I’d have a harder time paying so much money knowing that it will certainly be replaced with better versions fairly soon.

 

[bbeagle]

I wonder how Apple's requirement to fine tune this to the individual will effect this, if its real at all. If you have to go to the Apple Store to get it, they wont let you walk out without opening the box and perhaps somehow modifying the foam inserts to match your face. that will inherently cut down on resale.

Or have a restocking fee of 10% if you return it.

 

[klasma]

Apple should be able to tell us when they will launch it in the rest of the world.

They are uncertain about the US sales numbers and how manufacturing will be able to ramp up, which plays into when they’ll do international launches.

 

[Timo_Existencia]

I bought the original iPhone and original Apple Watch and replaced both a generation or two later, but they were not so expensive that I felt like I had wasted money. If I thought I would enjoy the AVP, I’d have a harder time paying so much money knowing that it will certainly be replaced with better versions fairly soon.

But you'd spend that kind of money on a concert knowing that the artist will put out a new album and a new tour next year? See, it's just a valuation preference. There's no objective measure of value, within reason. Most people on these threads could likely afford the AVP no problem if they valued automobiles slightly less.

 

[Timo_Existencia]

TLDR: It was incredibly stupid and out of touch to build a portable speaker that only connects via Wi-Fi.

The HomePod isn't really considered a "portable" speaker. There is no battery in it.

The HomePod isn't considered a failure. The product line continues, new products have been rumored.

I've seen a lot of people on here state they are extremely happy with their gen 1 homepod.

 

[ArrayDecay]

Gonna buy one for me and one for wifey.

YOLO!

 

[VPsmith]

Yeah, I am not sure what to make of all the folks claiming they are going to resell. Dont recall seeing that too often before. For some reason this device, this price point, seems to trigger a lot of trolls.

I wonder how Apple's requirement to fine tune this to the individual will effect this, if its real at all. If you have to go to the Apple Store to get it, they wont let you walk out without opening the box and perhaps somehow modifying the foam inserts to match your face. that will inherently cut down on resale.

Or one can hope.

You can order it online.. Setup is the only custom part and you can do it on your own. Apple didn't build custom to your face stuff in.. I don't even think anyone is sure if the foam inserts are two different sizes or a spare in case the first gets nasty.

 

[klasma]

That 400,000 number was ever only a rumor, right?

It was reported by the Financial Times:

“Two people close to Apple and Luxshare, the Chinese contract manufacturer that will initially assemble the device, said it was preparing to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024. Multiple industry sources said Luxshare was currently Apple’s only assembler of the device. Separately, two China-based sole suppliers of certain components for the Vision Pro said Apple was only asking them for enough for 130,000 to 150,000 units in the first year.”

[https://archive.ph/Zwfbk]

 

[VPsmith]

The HomePod isn't really considered a "portable" speaker. There is no battery in it.

The HomePod isn't considered a failure. The product line continues, new products have been rumored.

I've seen a lot of people on here state they are extremely happy with their gen 1 homepod.

The HomePod is a failure in Apples eyes.. It's being ignored which usually means Apple doesn't care about the category. They only sold Apple TV to get their app on peoples TVs.. What they really want to sell is subscriptions to TV and music.. Not accessories. The headphones are a scam to get you into their ecosystem. Yes they are alright. But Apple really wants to collect $10 or more on a monthly from you.

 

[Bigkool2inSC]

the 2024 college special...

"We want to get this in the hands (on the heads) of everyone.
So, with your school email address, purchase a Macbook air and get the Apple Vision Pro.
Must be a currently enrolled in an accredited college or university to get the promotion."

 

[2540497]

nah dont believe it

 

[Rychiar]

I'm a little concerned that the Apple Vision suffers from the same aesthetic issues that plagued the HomePod and turned HP into a failed product.

TLDR: It was incredibly stupid and out of touch to build a portable speaker that only connects via Wi-Fi. I understand Airplay 2's advantages (I stream audio to my stereo from my Mac all the time), but that was such an incredibly dumb decision that could only have been made by someone out of touch with how normal people listen to music with/without Apple devices. Of course the HomePod bombed.

I worry that Apple Vision is built along the same blind spot assumptions. The AR abilities are probably amazing, but I have a hard time envisioning the persona of the potential customer who checks all these points:

1. Appreciates 4k content
2. Can afford to buy a premium 4k tv for their home…
3. But would prefer to watch 4k content at home with a heavy device strapped around their head instead
4. Is willing to spend $149 on prescription inserts if they wear glasses/contacts that will have to be replaced after just a few years (like all prescription lenses)

How else would a Homepod work other than Wi-Fi? i have them all around my house and they’re great

 

[histeachn81]

View attachment 2335397
I can't wait to create my own Persona.

Is that how you normally look or is that your persona?

 

[Timo_Existencia]

The HomePod is a failure in Apples eyes.. It's being ignored which usually means Apple doesn't care about the category. They only sold Apple TV to get their app on peoples TVs.. What they really want to sell is subscriptions to TV and music.. Not accessories. The headphones are a scam to get you into their ecosystem. Yes they are alright. But Apple really wants to collect $10 or more on a monthly from you.

Ignored? Apple released an all new HomePod 11 months ago. There are recent rumors that they're working on one with a display built in. They can sell both hardware AND services.

And no, the AirPods are not a scam.

Hot takes, right here on MacRumors!

 

[Rychiar]

I gotta ask, do we really need Micro-OLED lenses? It's clear they're a major factor to why the headset is a nightmare to build and why it's so expensive, so why not just cut them for the eventual regular Apple Vision? That would slash the price by half and make it a lot easier to build.

Cus the amazing displays are what make this thing great...

 

[Born Again]

For all those looking to instantly resell this, first shame on you. It’s taking the inventory away from us genuine users who want to be early adopters of the tech.

Second, remember that you’re going to incur a lot of fees online, for example, eBay will treat you as a business and you’ll be liable for taxes if you sell something that expensive on its platform. Facebook is more sketchy and you’re less likely to reach a big enough audience to get those sweet juicy profits you’re drooling over.

It’s a fair point and it’s helpful to the resellers to know what they’re getting into. The auction needs to sell 15% or even higher to break even with the fees and shipping. You’ll want this to go out certified mail of course.

So for California resellers you’re looking at a purchase price of $3815 with tax. Need to make around $600+ in profit to clear eBay fees and certified shipping. So $4465 to break even.

I say if these re sell for $5k a pop $500 profit is worthwhile.

 

[VPsmith]

nah dont believe it

Yeah I don't believe it either. Maybe Kuo heard about 80,000 units shipped to stores for demo purposes and initial display. That would be 293 units per Apple Store (273 Apple Stores in the US). That sounds like a realistic in store early shipment for a really expensive device. Apple would have produced at least 400,000 units to sell in the first quarter. 80,000 units means only 4 people per US city will get one (19,495 cities in the US).. Apple wouldn't do that.

 

[Rychiar]

To be fair, money spent on memories is better spent. The child will grow up and always remember that concert, but the AVP is going to be an outdated piece of tech in a few years.

Paying $3000 for any concert is ******* insane…. For some pop star that will be tossed aside in a few years anyways when the kid gets into real music and is embamassed by it lol. The Vision Pro will be much more of an experience.

 

[klasma]

TLDR: It was incredibly stupid and out of touch to build a portable speaker that only connects via Wi-Fi.

It was stupid for it to not have an Ethernet port, given that it has a propensity to disconnect from WiFi, and that it has to be tethered for power anyway. If the AVP’s wifi is as flaky, it won’t be fun.

 

[VPsmith]

Paying $3000 for any concert is ******* insane…. For some pop star that will be tossed aside in a few years anyways when the kid gets into real music and is embamassed by it lol. The Vision Pro will be much more of an experience.

Taylor Swift is probably going to go down as the next Bob Dylan.. Wait until her later years. She's gunna stay solid, most likely, for a long time.

 

[zach-coleman]

And this is a weird one economically. It has almost killed the PS5 to be supply constrained. I stopped looking for a PS5 for 2 years. I bet no one at Sony was grateful for hype instead of sales.

It took so long for stock to stabilize that the question in my mind began to be “should I just wait until next gen?” I didn’t even see a unit in a store until about 3 months ago. It probably had better stocking prior to that, but I just stopped looking.

That would be 293 units per Apple Store (273 Apple Stores in the US). That sounds like a realistic in store early shipment for a really expensive device.

80,000 sounds low but I severely doubt every Apple Store will get +/-290 VPs for the launch. I don’t think they get that many of almost anything but iPhones which cost less than 1/3rd. This is not going to be a volume product.

 

[VPsmith]

Ignored? Apple released an all new HomePod 11 months ago. There are recent rumors that they're working on one with a display built in. They can sell both hardware AND services.

And no, the AirPods are not a scam.

Hot takes, right here on MacRumors!

You're funny with what you believe. But yeah HomePods are a bastard child. And the truth about Apple accessories is to yank you into their ecosystem and subscribe They make far more money getting $10 a month Apple Music subscriptions.

 

[VPsmith]

80,000 sounds low but I severely doubt every Apple Store will get +/-290 VPs for the launch. I don’t think they get that many of almost anything but iPhones which cost less than 1/3rd. This is not going to be a volume product.

Apple had on hand over 200 of each skew of M3 MacBook when they came out at my Apple Store. It's pretty realistic depending on the store. Some obviously will get less. 80,000 seems like brick and motor volume.

 

[t0rqx]

This is what the average macrumor member veen saying all along. Creating artifical shortages to market it as being sold out in one minute.

Besides them not producing more than 80k units says everything about their confidence in this product.

This is worse than Airpower.

 

[zach-coleman]

Apple had on hand over 200 of each skew of M3 MacBook when they came out at my Apple Store. It's pretty realistic depending on the store. Some obviously will get less. 80,000 seems like brick and motor volume.

Isn’t it pick up only, no shipping? I thought there was a fitting process that required an Apple Store.