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Right about what? Saying it was 50/50? That's incorrect, and it's a common misconception of statistics. Just because something has two possible outcomes, does not mean it's 50/50. It's only 50/50 if the odds of it happening are exactly equal to the odds of it not happening. Otherwise it's some other proportion like 80/20 or 1/99.

Here's an example, say you're free-falling from 1500 feet with no parachute. When you hit the ground, there are only two possibilities; You live, or you die. Would you say you have a 50/50 chance of surviving? No, because the probability of you dying is much higher. In real-life, almost nothing has an exactly equal chance of happening. Unless you're talking about a "heads" on a coin-flip or "evens" on a dice-roll, saying "50/50" just because there's only two possible outcomes is almost always incorrect.

I LOVE arguing semantics...bleh!
 
so what have we determined is the next most likely thing.

Thursday pre-order
Tuesday the 27th pre-order
and finally Friday the 30th in stores?
 
so what have we determined is the next most likely thing.

Thursday pre-order
Tuesday the 27th pre-order
and finally Friday the 30th in stores?

I would probably lean towards a straight release (no pre order). I really did think today or bust for pre-orders (just my opinion).

I think if that became the case though and people had a concrete date for order (i.e. at the end of the month as SJ has said), this would lead to a meltdown on the Apple site on that day (assuming the demand is what we think it is for not just the white iPhone, but for ANY iphone, given the apparent stock shortages).

This would be a nightmare to get one ordered, and would inevitably lead to site glitches etc. Just more bad press for Apple.

If they were to have a pre-order date, perhaps this Thursday if at all.

I'm gonna get a 32gb one now I have decided, just to reward myself for what has seemed a very long wait for the white lol!
 
so what have we determined is the next most likely thing.

Thursday pre-order
Tuesday the 27th pre-order
and finally Friday the 30th in stores?

Thursday July 22 is possible -- Apple put the [black] iPhone 4 on pre-order 9 days before it was available -- beginning pre-orders on July 22 would suggest that it is released the 31st, which is a likely release date.

Tuesday July 27 is possible -- Just because it's a Tuesday

Friday July 30th release is possible and likely -- iPhone 4 is going to be available in more countries, so it would make sense to release all these things at once.

Saturday July 31st release is also possible -- the iPad was released on a Saturday, so given Apple's history, this might also happen.

Some of this *might* happen.
 
Anyone else think maybe the white iPhone isn't as big of a deal as we think?

They've had two Q&A's (today, and last week) and nobody - nobody - asked a thing about it.
 
Anyone else think maybe the white iPhone isn't as big of a deal as we think?

They've had two Q&A's (today, and last week) and nobody - nobody - asked a thing about it.

No one cares. I agree. All I want is a release date. That's all.
 
I mean I do not see there being huge lines at the Apple Store on launch day. Most people who wanted the white iPhone 4 originally purchased the black color and are both happy and content with their purchases (for the most part). I'll be very surprised if I have to line up hours in advance to get a white iPhone 4. Though, I plan on heading to the mall two hours ahead of time, just in case there is no pre order option ahead of time.
 
I mean I do not see there being huge lines at the Apple Store on launch day. Most people who wanted the white iPhone 4 originally purchased the black color and are both happy and content with their purchases (for the most part). I'll be very surprised if I have to line up hours in advance to get a white iPhone 4. Though, I plan on heading to the mall two hours ahead of time, just in case there is no pre order option ahead of time.

Yeah, I'll be hitting up the Apple store about two hours early too. There's no way the line is going to be more than an hour/two hours at the NYC stores.
 
Out of curiocity, have any of you purchased a black iphone and intend on returning it when the white comes out??

I thought about this because I have someone who wants to buy my 3G - i can't go without a phone, and I don't want to make the buyer wait some indefinite amount of time..

I also realized (after making some calls) that if i were to order a black, they are shipping in around 3 weeks.. this means that its POSSIBLE if i order the black on, the white COULD be released before the white one comes out.. This would be a pain in the ass as well..

I guess my point is, this stinkin waiting game is more convenient than just "I want a white one and i want it now!"

I already have one black one.. i love love LOVE it.. I will be giving my black one i have now to my husband when I get the white one.. Gahh.. i hope they at least announce on the 22nd.. that would be sweet cause it's my bday, and it would be a nice bday present.
 
If they do a second release at a B&M there's probably a better chance to get the white one faster than the black one. I will definitely be camping out to get one this time.
 
Out of curiocity, have any of you purchased a black iphone and intend on returning it when the white comes out??

Please don't start that conversation in this thread. There have been at least 3 full threads on that topic. It's a bad road.

Yes, others have bought a black with intent to return it for white. /conversation

Back on topic, it seems like Apple doesn't want to give a definitive date for release. The end of July is a week and half away. I can't imagine Apple NOT knowing when they're going to release the White iPhones.
 
Please don't start that conversation in this thread. There have been at least 3 full threads on that topic. It's a bad road.

Yes, others have bought a black with intent to return it for white. /conversation

Back on topic, it seems like Apple doesn't want to give a definitive date for release. The end of July is a week and half away. I can't imagine Apple NOT knowing when they're going to release the White iPhones.

Unless... unless Apple is going to delay it again! :p

I agree, I think an earlier poster was right in saying Apple is purposely withholding a release date in the hopes that it won't entirely crush Apple/AT&T's servers. However, seems a moot point to me, as soon as the Apple store goes down Engadget/etc. will pick up on it almost instantly.
 
Unless... unless Apple is going to delay it again! :p

I agree, I think an earlier poster was right in saying Apple is purposely withholding a release date in the hopes that it won't entirely crush Apple/AT&T's servers. However, seems a moot point to me, as soon as the Apple store goes down Engadget/etc. will pick up on it almost instantly.

Yep. Why not just hold a pre order? The servers are going to get jammed either way. At least with a pre order people can get their iPhone ASAP.

Perhaps Apple is just waiting until the 27th. That way they can avoid the first 1.7 million people from returning their phone. Seeing as how orders slowed after the first three days, it would be a logical dividing point.
 
However, seems a moot point to me, as soon as the Apple store goes down Engadget/etc. will pick up on it almost instantly.

Another question is, how hard is it for Engadget to find someone who knows -- or at least -- heard a rumor for the exact release date right now?
 
Another question is, how hard is it for Engadget to find someone who knows -- or at least -- heard a rumor for the exact release date right now?

I agree. Somehow they managed to find someone who knew about the paint problems, the black preorder time, etc and yet can't find a single person who knows when the white will be released? I highly doubt that.
 
I agree. Somehow they managed to find someone who knew about the paint problems, the black preorder time, etc and yet can't find a single person who knows when the white will be released? I highly doubt that.

Do you think it's because Apple itself doesn't know when it will be released (maybe pushed back again?), or is someone hiding something?
 
Do you think it's because Apple itself doesn't know when it will be released (maybe pushed back again?), or is someone hiding something?

Sadly, I think its just that no one cares. If we got everyone on this thread to separately email them, perhaps they'd think it was newsworthy to ask around.
 
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