Mark Gurman: Apple Exploring iPads With Larger Displays

[Shirasaki]

The more I read comments the the polarised opinions become. Mainly, iPad right now is heavily favoured by content creators, like artists and illustrators, whose macOS interface makes no sense. But there are other professionals, who needs macOS interface and multiple windows for advanced multitasking. Both are perfectly valid use cases and can capture a large portion of professional users within iPad market imo. So, which direction apple should go? Idk. But given what I know about apple, they are likely sticking to one side and bandaid as much as they can to please the other side. Building expensive accessories to enable better keyboard and mouse support is a great sign of how apple appeal those customers.

I can’t really judge their move as I’m just not qualified for it. But I am more than willing to see how this approach will last and for how long. Right now, multitasking on iPad feels primitive and limited as always. iPadOS 15 has been proven not changing much in that regard. Maybe it’s time to abandon old iOS paradigm and embrace something new.

As for touch screen Mac, they can say whatever they want and I frankly can’t care less. If they are the company that is willing to cannibalise their own products for innovation, things will change.

 

[Alan Wynn]

Me: Present a comparison between sales of devices by Windows vendors and iPads.
You: Here’s a chart entirely NOT related to either sales, OR sales of devices by Windows vendors OR just iPads!

While I understand that you expect rational arguments, and while you and I do not always agree, you at least always try to make rational arguments. However, when every response is met with either shifting goal posts, a willful misrepresentation of what was said (or maybe more charitably, a lack of understanding of English prose), and/or statements that I used to describe when my students made them as “proof by endless repetition”, I am fairly confident you are wasting your time. 🙃

 

[Unregistered 4U]

The majority of folks are using devices for basic tasks are predominantly using smartphones, not even tablets.

The majority of folks using ANY computing device (save for very profession specific high end devices) are doing predominantly basic tasks. Now, I know there are some that may believe that the majority of people on the internet right now are testing their latest Xcode release on a local VM, against an exFAT volume, but that belief would be in error.

Windows 10 active user base is 1.3 billion. for iPad it's around 400 million. That's the number that matters.

If you want to know “What to focus on today” ie, if you’re skating to where the puck IS, then it matters. If you are looking at a trend line to determine “What will developers be focusing on in the future” all PC vendors must be feeling nervous knowing that, year over year, the device that’s beating them and each one of their competitors is not even running Windows. It’s not even running a “proper” operating system!

And, they don’t even have an answer for it.

 

[mannyvel]

There are (used to be) really big android tablets. They were really crazy to use and carry around.

I'd love to see Apple's research on tablet sizes. Why 12.9, 9.7, and 10.2?

 

[BigPotatoLobbyist]

That ain't happening.

There was maybe a time, in the early 2010s, where Apple thought this was the long-term path of the iPad. But they don't think that now.

And more importantly it's pretty clear they don't think the Mac OS UI ought to be running, nearly completely unadjusted - or in any parameters (special scaling, cursor magnetism or what have you) on the goddamn iPad. The Reddit-inspired fixation on this panglossian future of the iPad as a... Surface Pro but MachKernel is really rather mediocre. I can't fathom how few would actually take to using this. Probably you'd end up with forum diatribes on the optimal display size and aspect ratio as people realize shelving their 11-inch iPads for 13" behemoths to own Steve Jobs et. al in spirit with a hybrid device actually sucks ass, or at least appeals to only a fraction of the base they had imagined, is not cost effective, and is not a good user experience as opposed to two dedicated devices with some use overlap.

I think this entire circlejerk is much, much worse than the now-embarassing debacle behind the vocal minority esteeming small phones at this point, and we know how that went.
I don't know but one person who wants to use a ****ing iPad for school/work, and that spans several others who have standard Windows PC's or the other end who'd consider a Darter Pro & Ubuntu.

 

[Carac]

I'd LOVE a large OLED/MicroLED iPad with bare bones processing/power. Give me a huge, amazing screen with enough power to play video and that's it. I couldn't care less about rendering video, photoshop, etc. and neither could 99% of iPad users. I got a M1 iPad Pro in 12.9" with LTE because my first gen 12.9 inch ipad pro was headed out to pasture and I will NEVER, EVER, in the entirety of my ownership come close to using even half of the available power (and let's be honest, the majority of people that buy it won't either). I know they never will but I just want a huge ipad 15-17" low-end energy efficient hardware video decoding and a lot of storage, and that's it. The iPad is the best portable media consumption device ever created and they should lean hard into that for something like this.

 

[BigPotatoLobbyist]

Well, let me say this: I believe the iPad Pro is an effective utility for work; I believe many don't "need" the full standard PC interface per se.
But many clearly find the standard PC interface more functional and or enjoyable for work/certain leisure.

I actually don't even mind what Microsoft has done blowing up the UI with padding, I quite like it even on my desktop OS! Much easier on the eyes and navigable. Besides, real work is done in CS6 or Terminal, not the (lovely) Start Menu.
What I would mind is Apple ruining iOS by caving in to empty suits and a few graphic designers with Twitter (or Reddit) followings and porting Mac OS alongside their collective energies into having some bastardized dual-boot mode that in effect aids 5% of the iPadOS userbase but erodes focus, featureset, on the standard iPadOS interface and MacOS' desktop as well.

I think iPadOS feature upgrades ought to come from the ground up. Build a real touch-optimized Xcode for iPad, fine by me, but holy hell, Apple, don't listen (and they aren't) to the peanut gallery on this minute matter of sloppily porting or angling to let go of the Mac. Nothing that would help MS et. al more IMO (which tbh competition would be nice anyways bht this seems like a deadweight loss) than a blunder on the iPad and Mac. Wearables and phones are a home run already, and less subject to an undoing IMO

 

[Alan Wynn]

Windows 10 active user base is 1.3 billion.

Do you have a citation for that? When I was trying to track it down, I find various numbers, the highest I found was under 1.2 billion and that includes Xboxes and embedded systems (eliminating those gets the number to under a billion). I am not saying you are wrong, just curious where you found that number.

for iPad it's around 400 million. That's the number that matters.

Even if both of your numbers are correct, that is pretty amazing. That would mean that iPadOS would be somewhere between 30% and 40% of the Windows computer market. That is substantially greater than the macOS share of the market. It also says that iPads are substantially more interesting to non-Windows users that Macintoshes are.

 

[icwhatudidthere]

I actually want a 12” iPad Pro. I think my 12.9” is a little big and the 11” is a little small. The 12.9” is already big enough that they might as well just make it a chungus. They should do 8” Mini with reduced bezel, 10” standard, 12” iPad Pro with reduced bezel, and 14” iPad Pro with reduced bezel. 16” gets to be a bit much, unless maybe it’s able to be docked.

In a perfect world I’d have a 14” iPad Pro that docks to a keyboard and trackpad bottom to become a MacBook Pro running macOS. They could use thunderbolt to have an additional GPU, ports, and maybe even a storage device in the base, along with additional battery. I would pay A LOT for such a device! Maybe they’re waiting until they can make the iPad Pro a lot thinner and then it will work better for a top display piece.

Yep. That's exactly what I want. A SurfaceBook but for the Apple world. Has MacOS and a full desktop experience when docked. Detach the screen and have full access to a mobile experience with the full iPad app selection.

Until then, I have no real reason to replace my 2018 iPad Pro. If Microsoft pulls off Windows 11 with Android apps, I'd reconsider a SurfaceBook, though now Apple has upped the ante with the M1.

 

[Abazigal]

Even if both of your numbers are correct, that is pretty amazing. That would mean that iPadOS would be somewhere between 30% and 40% of the Windows computer market. That is substantially greater than the macOS share of the market. It also says that iPads are substantially more interesting to non-Windows users that Macintoshes are.

It’s probably due to the complimentary nature of iPads. People usually get either a windows PC or Mac (because they tend to serve very similar purposes), while anyone with a computer can still get an ipad. So the ipad enjoys a larger addressable market than the Mac, by virtue of being nothing like a conventional PC.

 

[Alan Wynn]

That'll be even more limited a market than iPhone 12 Mini.

Maybe, maybe not. However, what matters is not the market share, but whether there is enough of a market to justify its production. I have no idea, and while I would love one, I also know I am not the average customer. I will not be surprised if they make one nor if they do not.

Apple becoming the same they were during the Sculley days

Wow, it seems you have no understanding of what Apple’s problems were under John Sculley, no do you understand the difference between the two companies.

In Sculley’s last year at Apple (1993) the company’s total revenue was just about $7.97 billion. Last quarter, Apple’s revenue for just Wearables, Home and Accessories was $7.83 billion. In other words, Apple sells more in that category in a quarter than they used to sell in a year.

Apple’s problem under John Sculley was that they had a product family that was incomprehensible. It was often unclear, which was the right product for a particular application. Today, with a tiny number of exceptions, their product line up is quite clear. Not every product sells as well as it must to remain in the line, but they all have pretty clear roles.

The iPhone 12 mini is geared to people who want an iPhone 12 but want a smaller size. That may not be a large enough market to make it worth keeping, but it is pretty clearly defined.

In the same way, a 17” iPad Pro would serve a very clear market (people who want large screen iPads). That may not be enough of a market to make it worth serving, but no one would be confused as to where they should get a 13” MacBook or a 17” iPad Pro. They each have very clearly defined characteristics.

 

[eicca]

But you can run fart apps at 120hz with full HDR! What more could a pro user possibly want?

I missed that one! My order has been placed.

 

[acorntoy]

I suspect Apple has been exploring and making dozens of engineering prototypes of various sized iPads, including some very large, since the beginning.

“Introducing the 27” 1024-768 iPad” “with the lack of pixel density you can clearly see each pixel”

 

[smulji]

Do you have a citation for that?

It was mentioned during the Windows 11 keynote

 

[Alan Wynn]

The fact that the iPad is almost twice as powerful as my Mac Pro is amazing,

Which Mac Pro is that iPad twice as fast as?

but iPadOS means that it doesn't actually do anything I need it to. Hopefully they fix this lost opportunity.

What does it not do that you need it to do?

 

[smulji]

Even if both of your numbers are correct, that is pretty amazing. That would mean that iPadOS would be somewhere between 30% and 40% of the Windows computer market. That is substantially greater than the macOS share of the market. It also says that iPads are substantially more interesting to non-Windows users that Macintoshes are.

This is true. This is best, and most recent, article I could find with respect to Apple’s user base

Above Avalon: Apple's Billion Users

Apple’s ecosystem is massive. Approximately a billion people are using more than 1.4 billion Apple devices. Even as iPhone sales decline, Apple is bringing tens of millions of new people into its ecosystem each year. However, we are getting to a point where it is prudent to begin thinking about what

www.aboveavalon.com

 

[Alan Wynn]

I don't know but one person who wants to use a ****ing iPad for school/work, and that spans several others who have standard Windows PC's or the other end who'd consider a Darter Pro & Ubuntu.

Wow. I wonder who all is buying these systems if you do not know any of them?

 

[acorntoy]

Which Mac Pro is that iPad twice as fast as?

What does it not do that you need it to do?

iPad Pro M1 is 2X faster than any of the 09-10 8 core or under pros.
It’s also a little over 10% faster than the late 2013 12 core model.

 

[Alan Wynn]

This is true. This is best, and most recent, article I could find with respect to Apple’s user base

Neil Cybart is among the best (if not the best) industry analyst. Based on his numbers from that article, there are 4 times as many iPad customers as Macintosh customers. Seems like one of these products it much more popular than the other, and that maybe changing the popular one to be more like the less popular one does not make a lot of sense, no matter how much a vocal minority might disagree.

 

[Alan Wynn]

iPad Pro M1 is 2X faster than any of the 09-10 8 core or under pros.

So it is faster than a 10 year old machine. Cool.

It’s also a little over 10% faster than the late 2013 12 core model.

Got it. Thanks for the comparisons.

 

[Alan Wynn]

It was mentioned during the Windows 11 keynote

Interesting. They do not break their numbers out (like everyone else these days), but that probably puts it at 1.1-1.15 billion actual machines (not counting consoles and embedded systems).

 

[iPadified]

You can't possibly use 15" tablet hand-held. It's wrong size for a tablet (12.9 is already bad for most hand-held use cases. What you are looking for exists. It's called laptop.

The only handheld device that is working is iPhones and just maybe a mini if they do not minimises the bezels too much. All other iPads needs some kind of support. Legs, stomach/chest, lower part of an arm, a table, a pillow... 12.9 or 15 inch will make no difference for a "body held" device. 24 inch iPads would be for tables.

 

[Unregistered 4U]

iPad right now is heavily favoured by content creators, like artists and illustrators, whose macOS interface makes no sense.

And, just plain ol’ people. They greatly prefer the iPad to the Mac, too.

 

[iPadified]

And your are not representing either. Stop protecting Apple's idiotic idea.

What was your point again?

 

[acorntoy]

So it is faster than a 10 year old machine. Cool.

Got it. Thanks for the comparisons.

The intel machines also will be using around 100W-140w (2013) to achieve those results while the M1 uses about 25W. Those were top of the line chips whereas the M1 is quite literally the bottom of the barrel meant to replace base machines.

If you want current machines the M1 is faster than any of the current 16” pros , While using less than half the energy. It’s also only about 10% weaker than the 2019 base Mac Pro (that’s a 160W chip ). Again this is just the chip Apple is using to replace cheap models that people browse the internet and write essays with.