If flash is so refined how come flash videos on Hulu are choppy on my dual core 2GHz laptop, but smooth as butter on my 1GHz ARM iPad (which, incidentally, have been converted for the hulu plus app), or flash videos played using skyfire?
Actually, the iDevices are slowly killing flash. I don't miss it, and when a good web developer is creating a new website, right now today, most likely they are going to go to HTML5 or something, because it will not be viewable on an iDevice. The only reason flash still exists, is websites that are already using it, and low budget web-devs who don't have the training to implement anything else.
The college I attend is considering abandoning flash completely in it's web design courses, alot of other universities have already done so (according to those professors advocating it), which basically means the next generation of web developers will not only use something BESIDES flash, they won't even KNOW flash, so give it a few years, flash will be gone. If Adobe is smart, they will refine their products to be more HTML5 oriented. Imagine if Flash (the software suite) actually made h.264 videos or HTML5 content! (It actually might, I don't know it's been a while, but that's where it will be headed.)
Furthermore, Adobe isn't going to die if Flash gets killed. Remember Photoshop and Lightroom are INDUSTRY STANDARDS that are threatened by almost NOTHING except for open source alternatives (translation: Free stuff, so they wouldn't have bought PS or LR anyway), Adobe will be fine even if they cling to Flash.
You mean like Flash, Java Applets, Active X, Silverlight, etc?
Probably not.
The iPad will probably never incorporate the full capability to access any and all web sites.
Yeah, I want a device with my personal information to access the great security hole that is ActiveX so I can view Microsoft.com, sign me up!!
Firefox, Chrome, Safari, etc. also don't support ActiveX or Silverlight, and combined they outnumber IE (in other words, ActiveX and Silverlight support is in the minority). Java Applets would be cool, but flash... eh.