Maybe I should change the title to:
So will web page developers ever offer us the full web just using HTML5?
As much as I would like this to happen, I just don´t see it happening... perhaps never!It looks like Flash is here to stay for a very very long time.
I only see Flash becoming more popular. And all the other tablet devices are starting to use it and it looks like Flash is running great on these new tablets.
I hate those Flash based menus on my iPhone. I literally can´t use some of my favorite pages with iPhone, ´cause those menus just won´t work.Isn´t Apple suppose to be "it just works". I can forgive this with iPhone, but a tablet size 10", no way!
So are the web page developers the bad guys here, because they continue to use Flash?
Web developers are very, very quickly turning away from Flash. Universities aren't teaching it. The digital agency I worked at has moved almost all of the former flash developers into iOS development. It's going away, and the iOS devices are the reason why.
iOS device users are an _EXTREMELY_ desirable demographic. Quantity of users aside, these are extremely high-quality users (from a marketing / sales standpoint -- disposable income, tech-savvy, etc). Companies don't want to lose these users. Agencies that are pitching flash-only solutions are losing bids.
Flash will stick around for things that it's good at -- delivering rich media applications over the web, interfacing with video camera, etc. However, the days of full websites being developed in Flash, or of Flash being a core way that you interact with the web are very close to being over. It'll be like the almost overnight drop of Java applets as primary navigation/menus, etc.
Just an opinion from someone who, you know, actually does this for a living ;-)