abhishake said:
They must have worked out a way to export DVDs and the sort to your iPod. If that happens, then what are people going to argue about?
If that happens, then I'd be much more receptive to the idea of portable video. Still, even then I believe it's not nearly the "killer app" that portable audio has been. People carried audio with them since the day the Walkman came out. And they've always wanted to carry more than just a few tapes/CDs. MP3 players, and eventually the iPod, satisfied that long-standing desire. It filled a need that already existed in the market.
I don't see a similar overwhelming need or desire in the market for portable video. Car DVD players are taking off, especially for families with kids, but that makes sense in the car, when the kids are bored to death. Who else is carrying their DVDs around with them on a daily basis like people used to carry tapes and CDs for their Walkmans?
Maybe this will be more like the Walkman and create a new market need/desire, but I remain ever the skeptic.
As for whether Apple has even got a way to import DVDs just like we import CDs into iTunes now, I believe that's extremely unlikely right now. My reasons include:
- The movie industry is even more paranoid than the music industry about piracy. No way they let Apple release a way to rip DVDs.
- Even if Steve Jobs can apply his RDF and industry connections (he is CEO of Pixar, after all) to convince movie execs to allow this, they still have to come up with a way to preserve DRM on commercial DVDs to prevent unauthorized copying. Difficult task at best.
- Steve Jobs is part of the movie industry. He has a vested interest in preventing piracy and/or making us all buy new copies of Pixar movies for our new iPods.
- Heck, the whole movie industry would like to resell us the same movies again in a new format just for this. See UMD movies for PSP.
- Imported movies will have to be compressed so an iPod could hold a reasonable number of them. This takes a huge amount of time. A reasonably fast machine might compress a full length movie to H.264 in 20 hours. Maybe longer. Nobody wants to wait that long when you can import a CD in 5-10 minutes.
For similar reasons, online distribution of movies isn't ready just yet - a full length movie is a much bigger download than a similar length set of music. Needs a few more years to kick up broadband speeds and get the tech stragglers off of modems. Frankly, I don't see portable video being more than a novelty or niche application until we can import DVDs or buy online like we do with music now. It may be a quite a long time before the technical and legal hurdles are overcome.
With that, I'm fully prepared to eat these words if something huge happens tomorrow, I'm just not betting on it. Not yet.
