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What’s the first thing you’re going to do now that quarantine is over?
- Thread starter Hieveryone
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The “proof” is that we know how this virus spreads. It spreads through close contact among people, especially in enclosed spaces. You put more people in enclosed spaces in close proximity to one another, it’s going to spread more. If those people are careful - don’t touch their faces, wear masks, don’t get right in each other’s faces - then that will mitigate the spread, but it’s still going to spread faster than if people aren’t in close proximity in enclosed spaces.
Proof will happen with time.
Again, two weeks is hardly enough to determine that a second wave begins. I think October is when we can look back and see when the second wave began. That will be your proof.
Again, two weeks is hardly enough to determine that a second wave begins. I think October is when we can look back and see when the second wave began. That will be your proof.
Ok then why would bars be open if it was such a threat to go?
And why is the national trend going down?
And there are local rules even here and everyone I’ve seen is following them
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Ok then those who want to wait at home till October can do that
Proof that you're making things up as you go along and using terms like "it's all talk" to discredit experts based on your assumption no spike after 2 weeks means there definitely won't be one? It's right here on the thread.
I mean not really. Where are the charts, graphs, etc showing a national spike after everyone’s been going out?
I wonder how many times you have to be told there's no time limit on when a spike could occur. Numbers go down, people assume it's magically gone away and starting assuming they're fine and ignoring advice, numbers go back up.
But you'll only hear what you want to hear.
Why don’t you enlighten the millions of Americans who are out and about with some charts, graphs, data, as to when this spike will happen, where it will happen, how many cases there could be, etc?
Actually, I am talking about the present, that is, today, May 14.
Again, at the risk of repeating myself, but nevertheless, citing a source considered credible and reputable in the US, as of today, May 14, 2020, i.e. the present tense, that is, neither the future nor the past, according to the CDC, just under 1.4 million people in the US have been infected with this condition, Covid-19, while just under 84,000 people in the US have died from it.
And, for the future, these numbers cannot but increase given both how contagious and how lethal this virus actually is.
And my fear is that if - by responding to grotesque and obscene political pressure - some states (and counties) open too soon, relax restrictions too soon, without adequate testing, tracking, tracing and treating in place, and without adequate PPE available or altered behavioural patterns observed, - the numbers of those who have contracted (and possibly perished from) this condition may surge, yet again.
Now: A question for you: How many deaths in the US would it take for you to consider this condition troubling, or worrying?
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The national trend is not "going down."
Can you provide proof showing that there will be a spike in cases in the future if we stay open like we have?
And evidence backing up that there will be more unemployment even though people are going back to work?
Remember Lady Bracknell (in The Importance of Being Earnest, by Oscar Wilde): "Ignorance is like a delicate exotic flower: Touch it, and the bloom is gone.."
if the national trend isn’t going down then where’s the chart? I showed you mine already @Scepticalscribe
because decisions are being made on the basis of something other than just public health.
The number one reason is because number of cases is a lagging indciator, and number of deaths is a very lagging indicator. Also because New York/New Jersey were driving the data for a long time and have seen dramatic declines in their numbers that are lowering the national numbers. And because not everywhere has opened up. And maybe (hopefully) also weather effects as it gets warmer.
Most of the so called "common sense" quotes from public officials in national media outlets that relate to going ahead and re-opening all businesses full tilt seem to be from Republican Senators as far as I can tell.
So I'd say even the term "common sense" has become a polarized concept these days.
But hey, I don't have a problem with people following local rules if the rules actually do engage "common sense" --which in my book doesn't involve packed public venues of any sort right now.
Like in New York State, phase one doesn't involve re opening of malls. But there can be curbside delivery from stores within those malls. That seems sensible to me.
How do you know that it’s unsafe though if Things have been partially open for most of the country, people are out and about, and no spike nationally...
Malls? They were pretty empty before corona anyway. I don’t think anyone is going to miss them.
Malls were a 90s thing
Read back and you'll clearly see I never said there would definitely be one. What I said was you can't assume there won't be one based on 2 weeks of relaxation. But you know all this already. We all know you don't seriously believe it's currently magically fading away. And if you do, unlucky.
So now you’re uncertain whether or not there will be a spike and just guessing.
That’s fine, but based on what are you guessing?
Again, is there a chart, graph, something showing there will be one?
Listen up. It takes in the range of 4 to 14 days to end up infected with Covid-19 after exposure.
And you may not know you're infected, since you may not feel ill. So if you're out and about and infected without knowing it, you are therefore endangering people around you if you're not social distancing, and meanwhile you're opening doors and touching things other people will touch, possibly not washing their hands before touching their own face etc.
So a spike in infections occurs whenever a bunch of people are around someone who's infected and themselves become infected. It takes time. And it's not a fixed time, it's time that trails along with any infected person while the virus is still active in him and therefore still being shed wherever he goes.
Get it? It's not really complicated.
We’re going in circles. We know it’s unsafe because we know how the virus spreads.
No spike nationally because of what I said before: positive cases are a lagging indicator, and deaths are a very lagging indicator. Infection numbers reflect what was happening one to two weeks ago, and death numbers reflect what was happening three to four weeks ago.
Also, national numbers are important but don’t tell the whole story. The data from places that open back up will get muddied with data from places that haven’t opened back up.
Its been open that long in many places like Georgia - no state wide spike
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@QCassidy352
Well then at this point it’s just theory and hypotheticals.
It hasn’t happened nationally nor do we know if it even will.
What we do know is that most of the country is partially open and people are out
Please explain to me how 84,000 unexpected deaths in two months cannot be classed, or described, as a "spike".
Given the rate of infection (a rate that, when calculated, - when appropriate distancing and health protocols are not observed - turns out to be closer to something classed as quadrilateral rather than that which is regarded as exponential, for those who study such things), this cannot not reach - indeed, exceed - 100,000 dead well before the end of the month.
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