Is everyone still ignoring the fact that the iPad 2 has a massive user base...
People don't upgrade their iPads like they upgrade their iPhones. The iPad is showing to be more like the Mac, e.g. people will hang onto them longer, due to the fact they are unsubsidised. If you realise your iPad 2 can't get the latest upgrade after only 2 or less years, I doubt you're going to buy another iPad.
Also the 4S is certain to be supported given that it
1. it runs iOS 7 very well
2. it is still sold
3. it hasn't received its 3rd update yet
If the iPhone 4S is supported, there is no reason for the 2 not to be supported given that the iPhone 4S is almost identical in all ways, besides the fact that it runs slower benchmark wise. I'm pretty sure that the iPad 2 is technically capable of Siri (As jail breakers have shown) but Apple introduced Siri for the iPad with iOS 6, and it old have been a selling point for the iPad 4 to get people to upgrade from the iPad 2 and 1.
People seem obsessed with Apple dropping their middle aged and perfectly capable devices. There is no reason for Apple to Drop any of the A5 devices. Apple have been greedy and continued selling these devices, and they should thus support them.
The 4S has a lot of technological leads over the iPad 2, just not in terms of the processor. Actually, just about all of the A5 devices (third generation Apple TV excluded) have some non-processor-related leg up on the iPad 2 in some way or another.
I don't think anyone is obsessed with Apple dropping support; to be fair, the whole theme of this thread is "which devices won't make it".
Not counting iPad 1 (It was underpowered to begin with) we don't actually know sort of an update cycle Apple all give the iPad... time will tell. Possibly they'll leave the iPhone on 3 updates, and move to 4 updates for the iPhone....
Just because one iDevice got discontinued (iPod Touch 4) and then dropped within half a year doesn't mean it was going to be the pattern from now on. The iPod touch ran its last update terribly, and I can hardly imagine how badly it would have run iOS 7. The iPad 2 runs fine under iOS 7.
It's sort of unfair to hold the iPads to an upgrade cycle given that, up until the fourth generation iPad and iPad Air, they hadn't quite gotten it down. I'll explain: The first generation iPad, as you said, was underpowered for what it needed to do long-term. The iPad 2 fixed that and was great with the same long term potential that the fourth generation iPad and iPad Air now have today. The third generation iPad, however didn't advance in terms of speed, and in some ways was the beta product to the fourth generation iPad and really all retina iPads. It's likely that if iOS 7 is the iPad 2's last OS that the iPad 2 will remain on it more gracefully than the third generation iPad will on its OS, though I digress. Point is that the first and third generations will not age in the same way that the 2, fourth generation, and Air all will, so to assume that there is a trend being set is sort of unrealistic. This is further demonstrated with the iPad mini line in that the first generation iPad mini was a year behind on internal tech out of the gate whereas the second (current) generation is current out of the gate; automatically lending to the fact that the first generation will last at least one year less than the second.
I predict all devices that got iOS 7 will get iOS 8. Any idea how much iPhone 4's and iPad 2's are out there? Not updating those devices would hurt a LOT of customers. Plus, the iPhone 4 is still being sold AND produced!
Furthermore, iOS 7.1.1 is still kinda beta. Can't leave devices stuck on that.
7.1.1 is certainly better than 7.0.x. Secondly, most iPhone 4 customers were incentivized to update to a 5c or 5s with iOS 7.0.x running so terribly. For those that are still on an iPhone 4 now running 7.1.1, I'm sure that they will either (a) know that it's time to upgrade sooner rather than later or (b) be ignorant of it enough that they don't know, care, or realize that they won't be able to run 8.
A vast majority of the iPad 2's in service don't need to be updated; but if security flaws come out, it seems like Apple will still update iOS 7 for the iPad 2 to patch them like they have done with 6 for the 3GS and fourth generation iPod touch.
The problem is that there's no clear information as to what exactly would determine everything and what exemptions could be made and why. Despite people believing things one way or another all of that lack of information makes almost any argument hold some water on some level, making the debate really more of half-guessing that doesn't or basically shouldn't really actually convince or help anyone one way or another. Perhaps as far as just sort of arguing for the fun of it it can work, but strong opinions one way or another still aren't convincing either way no matter what given all the variables and unknowns.
Oh sure, but still some people are clinging to facts and trends that aren't necessarily true or have weight.
For instance, a theory that Apple may cut support for all non-retina devices in iOS 8 is no less sound than any other theory. In fact it'd be even more sound because Apple HAS been known to drop support for certain older technologies (in this case non-retina displays) to simplify development.
Similarly a theory that devices with Siri or other tech that the 4S has but the iPad 2 does not will make the cut due to those technologies being present is also a sound theory because Apple has been known to base the cut-off point in OS support on things like that that have little to do with whether or not the CPU has muscle to run it or whether or not there is a large install base.
However, a theory that Apple is supporting an OS device because they give all devices three OS updates is not sound because (a) it's not universally true, (b) Apple has been known to break those kinds of traditions as they see fit.
The whole fun to this exercise is hearing the theories. Though there are a fair number of them that are based on facts that would easily disprove them. Either way, the discussion is fun. Though I think some take it a bit personally. My first generation iPad mini is being intentionally held back on iOS 6 as is the more powerful and capacious of my two iPod touches; though I would like to see Apple give that product line some love before snuffing it out completely. Otherwise, my iPad Air is making it to 8 and my iPad 2 is merely just a back-up device so if it is stuck on 7, oh well.
IMHO I think the iPhone 4 will not make the cut. Given that the iPhone 4s is still being produced/ sold in some countries but not the iPhone 4. Dual core processors upwards and who knows, Apple may send out a firmware upgrade for the iPhone 4S to increase the CPU clock speed slightly albeit reducing the battery usage time. (Hoping perhaps)
That'd be a disastrous idea. The 4S will age like its predecessors and 8 will likely be its last hurrah unless Apple decides to block support for it for reasons that are not yet apparent (again, I think the fat trimming of support for older screen resolutions isn't a bad theory), though I think that is unlikely.
I think that the 4 will be cut as well the ipad 2, others will make their way to the update
This is certainly the most common theory, based on the polls. Probably likely due to newer tech that made it into the other A5 devices. We'll see though. It'd be interesting if they maintained support for the 1024x768 resolution SOLELY for the first generation iPad mini.