abbie, i guess you should start protecting then, just in caseA couple things:
To answer the questions:
The vamps, you will know they are activated when people start dropping like flies (quicker).
Lynch drama.
is this a hint? who is 'drama'?
Got a tip for us?
Let us know
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[WW] Bloodlust GAME OVER - WEREWOLVES WIN
- Thread starter ravenvii
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
is this a hint? who is 'drama'?
ok, i thought that ravenvii post was overriding that one but i guess he was only referring to the regular villagers.
all right then, we are still half safe for the night
i wonder if we (or the wolves) already killed the second goth by chance. it seems so unlikely that they didn't find each other yet.
Bugger. Didn't think I was going to get out of that one. Oh well.
Good luck with the rest of the game. I'm off for some Baked Goods and zombie company and hopefully discuss future game strategies with the rest of the dead villagers, that's if they don't shun me for who I was.
Good luck with the rest of the game. I'm off for some Baked Goods and zombie company and hopefully discuss future game strategies with the rest of the dead villagers, that's if they don't shun me for who I was.
ok, i thought that ravenvii post was overriding that one but i guess he was only referring to the regular villagers.
all right then, we are still half safe for the night
i wonder if we (or the wolves) already killed the second goth by chance. it seems so unlikely that they didn't find each other yet.
Can someone who's better at math than I figure the odds of the goth and the vampire not finding each other by this point?
I'll do it when I get time and if people are interested.
Werewolves don't have souls, you get no baked goods in the afterlife, actually you get no afterlife. GTFO my world.Bugger. Didn't think I was going to get out of that one. Oh well.
Good luck with the rest of the game. I'm off for some Baked Goods™ and zombie company and hopefully discuss future game strategies with the rest of the dead villagers, that's if they don't shun me for who I was.
^ That's cold, man! *ponders how only a vampire could hate werewolves so much* ... *may have seen too much Underworld*
I'll carefully slip you some cookies, philbeeney, if only for the laugh snort before pulling the death lever.
That's cold, man! *ponders how only a vampire could hate werewolves so much* ... *may have seen too much Underworld* I'll carefully slip you some cookies, philbeeney, if only for the laugh snort before pulling the death lever.
I made a couple of assumptions:
(1) I only calculated the probability of the Vampire and ONE Goth finding each other: simplifies the math and we did kill one Goth already.
(2) The Vampire and Goth are not lynched by the Villagers day-to-day, and neither are of them killed night-to-night by the WWs: again, simplifies the math and is necessary to assume that both are still in play, otherwise we would know already (I think).
(3) The villager lynched and the villager killed by the WWs are the players that were scanned by the Vampire and Goth: in reality, this is most likely not true, but there's no way to account for this without the calculations getting out of hand, then you'd have to subtract the probability that the dead villagers were actually scanned from the overall probabilities of scanning the Goth or Vampire correctly.
(4) The Vampire and Goth do not scan themselves: obviously.
(5) I subtract the villager killed by the WWs from the next night's probability because the Vampire/Goth scan occurs before the night's WW attack, so all villagers that are still alive after the lynching are available to be scanned.
The game is probably over by Day 8 and if not, probably over the next day as either the WWs or the Vampires will have most, if not the actual, majority by then.
vampProb: the probability that the Vampire successfully scans the Goth
gothProb: the probability that the Goth successfully scans the Vampire
findProb: the additive probability that either the Vampire scans the Goth successfully -or- the Goth scans the Vampire successfully... this probability is the sum of vampProb and gothProb because only one is required successfully scan the other in order to activate the Vampires.
missProb: (1 - findProb), the probability that the Vampire and the Goth miss each other.
overallMissProb: This is what you wanted appleguy123... this is the overall probability that the Vampire and Goth have not found each other by Night N. This is calculated by multiplying the previous night probabilities by the current night probability of not having scanned successfully. The probabilities are multiplied because in order to not have been activated by Night 5, they had to have missed Night 1 and Night 2 and Night 3 and Night 4. The probabilities are shifted down by one row because the probability reflects the odds of not having been activated by Night N.
My villagersLeft column is off by two because of the missed WWs attack a couple nights ago and because KMM was resurrected. But I think you can deduce the new odds from the spreadsheet... the Vampires/Goth basically got an extra night to scan (if I'm thinking about it correctly). So I think that means you just need to look at the overallMissProb for the next night to get the odds for tonight, etc. I think.
Hope that all makes sense. If I made a mistake somewhere there, just let me know and I'll try to fix it.
EDIT:
Given the assumptions that I made and the fact that because the WWs missed an attack and KMM was resurrected, the true probabilities are likely higher.
Attachments
I made a couple of assumptions:
(1) I only calculated the probability of the Vampire and ONE Goth finding each other: simplifies the math and we did kill one Goth already.
(2) The Vampire and Goth are not lynched by the Villagers day-to-day, and neither are of them killed night-to-night by the WWs: again, simplifies the math and is necessary to assume that both are still in play, otherwise we would know already (I think).
(3) The villager lynched and the villager killed by the WWs are the players that were scanned by the Vampire and Goth: in reality, this is most likely not true, but there's no way to account for this without the calculations getting out of hand, then you'd have to subtract the probability that the dead villagers were actually scanned from the overall probabilities of scanning the Goth or Vampire correctly.
(4) The Vampire and Goth do not scan themselves: obviously.
(5) I subtract the villager killed by the WWs from the next night's probability because the Vampire/Goth scan occurs before the night's WW attack, so all villagers that are still alive after the lynching are available to be scanned.
The game is probably over by Day 8 and if not, probably over the next day as either the WWs or the Vampires will have most, if not the actual, majority by then.
vampProb: the probability that the Vampire successfully scans the Goth
gothProb: the probability that the Goth successfully scans the Vampire
findProb: the additive probability that either the Vampire scans the Goth successfully -or- the Goth scans the Vampire successfully... this probability is the sum of vampProb and gothProb because only one is required successfully scan the other in order to activate the Vampires.
missProb: (1 - findProb), the probability that the Vampire and the Goth miss each other.
overallMissProb: This is what you wanted appleguy123... this is the overall probability that the Vampire and Goth have not found each other by Night N. This is calculated by multiplying the previous night probabilities by the current night probability of not having scanned successfully. The probabilities are multiplied because in order to not have been activated by Night 5, they had to have missed Night 1 and Night 2 and Night 3 and Night 4. The probabilities are shifted down by one row because the probability reflects the odds of not having been activated by Night N.
My villagersLeft column is off by two because of the missed WWs attack a couple nights ago and because KMM was resurrected. But I think you can deduce the new odds from the spreadsheet... the Vampires/Goth basically got an extra night to scan (if I'm thinking about it correctly). So I think that means you just need to look at the overallMissProb for the next night to get the odds for tonight, etc. I think.
Hope that all makes sense. If I made a mistake somewhere there, just let me know and I'll try to fix it.
EDIT:
Given the assumptions that I made and the fact that because the WWs missed an attack and KMM was resurrected, the true probabilities are likely higher.
did you mean to attach something or are you just teasing us?
edit: ok, there it is.
I am not sure i concur with your analysis (from a probability point of view), but don't have time to get into it right now, so i'll take yours as a good approximation anyways and conclude from your calculation that it shouldn't be particularly surprising that didn't find each other yet. which is a surpiring conclusion
Statistical mathematics make my brain throb - 100% chance!
Did you want to talk about Player Role Probability or were you just making chit chat?
Not a problem, I'm not too sure either... the assumptions I built in likely skew things against the Vampire/Goth's favor, plus there's one more thing that I didn't take into account that works hugely in the Vampire and Goth's favor:did you mean to attach something or are you just teasing us?
edit: ok, there it is.
I am not sure i concur with your analysis (from a probability point of view), but don't have time to get into it right now, so i'll take yours as a good approximation anyways and conclude from your calculation that it shouldn't be particularly surprising that didn't find each other yet. which is a surpiring conclusion
They're reading along too.
That means that they know who the Seer was, who the Vamp Hunter is, etc... that narrows their possibilities to scan even further. You're probably looking at tonight's collective odds of one scanning the other more along the lines of something like Night 8. I would actually be surprised if they don't find each other tonight.
"You say you are the vampire hunter? Where's the vampires that you claim to hunt?"
Abijnk twisted around in the woods, looking for the source of the voice.
"You are powerless against us. Why do you dare prowl those woods?"
"And unarmed as well! Ha-ha-ha!"
Abijnk begun to run, skipping over rocks and roots as if she has lived in the woods for her entire life.
"Look at her run. Not bad. Maybe she's a hunter after all. Should we give her a head start?"
"... Nah!"
A growl and a howl, then a second howl, filled Abijnk's ears. She is close to the town now. She could at least have a chance there.
But before she could complete her thought, her throat flew open, and everything became teeth, fur and claws. Then darkness.
Abijnk's body was found by Melrose the next morning, hanging on a tree branch. There was hardly any of her left, just bones and some hanging flesh.
Abijnk has been eaten by werewolves. It is now DAY, and 10 remain. 6 is the majority vote.
Abijnk twisted around in the woods, looking for the source of the voice.
"You are powerless against us. Why do you dare prowl those woods?"
"And unarmed as well! Ha-ha-ha!"
Abijnk begun to run, skipping over rocks and roots as if she has lived in the woods for her entire life.
"Look at her run. Not bad. Maybe she's a hunter after all. Should we give her a head start?"
"... Nah!"
A growl and a howl, then a second howl, filled Abijnk's ears. She is close to the town now. She could at least have a chance there.
But before she could complete her thought, her throat flew open, and everything became teeth, fur and claws. Then darkness.
Abijnk's body was found by Melrose the next morning, hanging on a tree branch. There was hardly any of her left, just bones and some hanging flesh.
Abijnk has been eaten by werewolves. It is now DAY, and 10 remain. 6 is the majority vote.
Well, here's who's left:
1) NathanMuir
2) ucfgrad93
3) Melrose
4) willbro
5) Mexbearpig
6) appleguy123
7) iBlue
8) Don't panic
9) renewed
10) stonyc
I think that it is evident that someone has been infected so we are still dealing with two werewolves and an unactivated vampire duo. So we have a 40% chance of lynching a baddie tonight. I know that I have not be infected as that was evidently used on someone else.
Willbro was cleared by Abijnk, correct? So we can remove him, unless the wolves infected him...
I suspect that the infected wolf in an experienced player.
I think that possible candidates for wolfs are: Don't painc, stonyc, iBlue, Mexbearpig and Melrose. Doesn't really narrow it down much though.
I'm going to go back and look at the voting records before I vote.
1) NathanMuir
2) ucfgrad93
3) Melrose
4) willbro
5) Mexbearpig
6) appleguy123
7) iBlue
8) Don't panic
9) renewed
10) stonyc
I think that it is evident that someone has been infected so we are still dealing with two werewolves and an unactivated vampire duo. So we have a 40% chance of lynching a baddie tonight. I know that I have not be infected as that was evidently used on someone else.
Willbro was cleared by Abijnk, correct? So we can remove him, unless the wolves infected him...
I suspect that the infected wolf in an experienced player.
I think that possible candidates for wolfs are: Don't painc, stonyc, iBlue, Mexbearpig and Melrose. Doesn't really narrow it down much though.
I'm going to go back and look at the voting records before I vote.
I can't fully disagree with you NathanMuir about an experienced player being infected... but I'm not prepared to clear anyone at this point:
- KMM obviously wasn't infected.
- abjink obviously wasn't infected.
- philbeeney (since he didn't Kamikaze and therefore was the Alpha/Infectious WW) had a good amount of time to infect someone prior to getting lynched.
Now, could it be argued that willbro and whoever else was cleared are less likely a candidate for infection? Yes, but there are arguments both ways, I think. I think the most sensible thing to do is to realize that anyone who was previously cleared could have just as easily been infected as someone who hadn't been cleared.
Speaking of the voting record, where is it... abjink's isn't current?
My first inclination is to vote for ucfgrad93 because he posted within 15 minutes of philbeeney posting to vote for Jav6454 as part of that block of three votes.
Mexbearpig made it four in a row when he voted for Jav6454 about 8 hours later.
Don't panic listed renewed in a previous post as first among those he suspected... I'm not sure why, maybe I missed it while AWOL last weekend? Maybe someone could explain?
Going to try to track down previous votes to update the voting record I had started to keep, and think on this further.
- KMM obviously wasn't infected.
- abjink obviously wasn't infected.
- philbeeney (since he didn't Kamikaze and therefore was the Alpha/Infectious WW) had a good amount of time to infect someone prior to getting lynched.
Now, could it be argued that willbro and whoever else was cleared are less likely a candidate for infection? Yes, but there are arguments both ways, I think. I think the most sensible thing to do is to realize that anyone who was previously cleared could have just as easily been infected as someone who hadn't been cleared.
Speaking of the voting record, where is it... abjink's isn't current?
My first inclination is to vote for ucfgrad93 because he posted within 15 minutes of philbeeney posting to vote for Jav6454 as part of that block of three votes.
Mexbearpig made it four in a row when he voted for Jav6454 about 8 hours later.
Don't panic listed renewed in a previous post as first among those he suspected... I'm not sure why, maybe I missed it while AWOL last weekend? Maybe someone could explain?
Going to try to track down previous votes to update the voting record I had started to keep, and think on this further.
:-/ *sigh* Her input would probably be pretty damn helpful right now.
Speaking of which, does anyone have a voting record or do we have to go back/rely on memory? (if there's one out that would sure be easier. I am a bit lazy when possible.)
Right, so since Phil was a wolf I think it does give a lot of merit to the aforementioned block voting on jav. Now it could have been a coincidence but clues are pretty ambiguous in this game. ucfgrad93 has given me a weird feeling ever since then and that outburst about the game drag. He's never had enough or maybe even any votes, IIRC, so not figured it worth mentioning until now. Reason being, I notice our day switch narration usually occurs at around this time and I'm not always online at this time of night (it's almost 8pm here now) so I'm often left to vote with predetermined choices so we can actually reach a majority. I've tried the stubborn voting thing and usually end up having to change my vote. (refused to with jav though, just really didn't think it was him.) Aaanyway...
renewed is a pretty smooth player and he's been pretty quiet. Same with Melrose and Mexbearpig. Though these guys are often the usual suspects for these same reasons so it's hard to say.
Just throwing some ideas out for now, see if any stick with any of you as well. I'll probably not be on again tonight but I think the votes are starting to get pretty critical now, especially with a possibility of vampires finding each other, so we shouldn't rush too much for the sake of it.
Speaking of which, does anyone have a voting record or do we have to go back/rely on memory? (if there's one out that would sure be easier. I am a bit lazy when possible.
)Right, so since Phil was a wolf I think it does give a lot of merit to the aforementioned block voting on jav. Now it could have been a coincidence but clues are pretty ambiguous in this game. ucfgrad93 has given me a weird feeling ever since then and that outburst about the game drag. He's never had enough or maybe even any votes, IIRC, so not figured it worth mentioning until now. Reason being, I notice our day switch narration usually occurs at around this time and I'm not always online at this time of night (it's almost 8pm here now) so I'm often left to vote with predetermined choices so we can actually reach a majority. I've tried the stubborn voting thing and usually end up having to change my vote. (refused to with jav though, just really didn't think it was him.) Aaanyway...
renewed is a pretty smooth player and he's been pretty quiet. Same with Melrose and Mexbearpig. Though these guys are often the usual suspects for these same reasons so it's hard to say.
Just throwing some ideas out for now, see if any stick with any of you as well. I'll probably not be on again tonight but I think the votes are starting to get pretty critical now, especially with a possibility of vampires finding each other, so we shouldn't rush too much for the sake of it.
I don't blame you for suspecting me, but I will point out that since the end of the Easy game, I've been trying to be more involved. It doesn't help that reams of lengthy posts come and go with no apparent purpose other than to confuse (at least, confuse me). If I'm not posting it's not because I have something to hide - it's because I don't quite get what's going on.iBlue said:
my suspicion of renewed stems from his extremely quiet game. now this can be for a number of reasons, including what melrose just mentioned, or just plainly not being online much, but for renewed in particular it's quite a change from his MO: for example he had a larger number of posts in the other game while at the same time never posting in this game. i do have to say that i like him more as a vamp/goth than as a wolf.
ucfgrad93, mexbearpig, apple123, melrose, iblue, stonyc follow him in my suspicion list in this order because of their posting/voting history (funny that this order is almost exactly opposite to nathan's), so i could be swayed to someone to the top there.
in term of infection, everyone is a candidate and here posting history is irrelevant, because he/she was likely infected yesterday. phil likely wouldn't want to waste the infection on the vamp, so will and nathan would be the safest choice, but at the same time they are hi-profile choices, so he might have wanted to go for someone more incospicuous and likeable. and with all the defectionist talk that has been going on, someone who has been or has wanted to be a baddie might be a plus (yes iBlue, I am looking at you).
also, I have to say that i was quite surprised at abijnk being a wolf target. aside for the revenge reason (though well fitting for werewolves) i can't see why they'd kill her.
i actually thought she would be the absolutely least likely to go (even if not infected) because a) as a permanent infectee suspect her presence would attract lynching votes away from wolves b) as vamp hunter protector she could (unwittingly) protect wolves from vamp attack when they get activated.
ucfgrad93, mexbearpig, apple123, melrose, iblue, stonyc follow him in my suspicion list in this order because of their posting/voting history (funny that this order is almost exactly opposite to nathan's), so i could be swayed to someone to the top there.
in term of infection, everyone is a candidate and here posting history is irrelevant, because he/she was likely infected yesterday. phil likely wouldn't want to waste the infection on the vamp, so will and nathan would be the safest choice, but at the same time they are hi-profile choices, so he might have wanted to go for someone more incospicuous and likeable. and with all the defectionist talk that has been going on, someone who has been or has wanted to be a baddie might be a plus (yes iBlue, I am looking at you
).also, I have to say that i was quite surprised at abijnk being a wolf target. aside for the revenge reason (though well fitting for werewolves) i can't see why they'd kill her.
i actually thought she would be the absolutely least likely to go (even if not infected) because a) as a permanent infectee suspect her presence would attract lynching votes away from wolves b) as vamp hunter protector she could (unwittingly) protect wolves from vamp attack when they get activated.
I'm not one of the bad guys, but okay, go with what you feel is best.
After we worked so closely on that one game too... ah well....and cast my vote for Don't panic.
@Nathan, were you the sorcerer? I thought that you were dropping hints that you were, but I can't be sure.
There is no point in not revealing yourself now, because the werewolves obviously want to go after the vamps at this point, and the infection has already been used (if it wasn't on you ?).
There is no point in not revealing yourself now, because the werewolves obviously want to go after the vamps at this point, and the infection has already been used (if it wasn't on you ?).