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[WW] - The Game of Thrones - GAME OVER - LOYALS WIN

jimN said:
The problem with all the theories here is that they are based on no facts whatsoever.

I'd have to go back and look at some of the vote ordering posts to be more specific but to my mind the ufc chap is still suspicious.
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What is your theory behind suspecting ucfgrad93?

The theory I presented is based on fact.

Fact: ravenvii was going to be lynched.
Fact: ravenvii switched his vote to Plutonius with 65 minutes left in the 'day' (in and of itself a reasonable move). This put Plutonius 1 away from tying with ravenvii.
Fact: Sythas switches his vote to Plutonius with 33 minutes left in the 'day'. This ties Plutonius to ravenvii, but ravenvii is still slated to death.
Fact: WoodNUFC places his vote to Plutonius with 8 minutes left in the 'day'. This saves ravenvii and leaves Plutonius for dead.
Fact: Plutonius is a loyal.
Theory: One or more of these three are traitors. They felt they couldn't afford to lose ravenvii so took a late opportunity to save him.

Is it a good theory? Probably not. But there isn't much else to go on, hence I'm going on this.

Why did ravenvii get picked on in the first place? Because it was day 2 and we're just spinning around pointing fingers. Yes I said I voted for ravenvii because he was speaking in French, no I don't believe he was trying to do some weird communication thing (and I never stated as such).

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ravenvii said:
Weak? More like arbitrary. Someone didn't like that I was speaking French, so voted for me. Others followed, and a bandwagon formed.

That's literally all there was to it. It's a fact that I'm not a traitor. I am very confident that I am one of the first people to be scanned by the Master of Whisperers. If I am a traitor, he/she should come out and say so, then I'd be lynched, and there'll only be 1 more traitor left (well, 2 if the Bought Man was, uh, bought).
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Yester(game)day there was no reason to vote for you (or anybody for that matter). To(game)day there is reason as outlined in my prior note (or above if these get merged).
 
My suspicion of UFCgrad is based on him following on from other people's votes for Ravenii with no evidence at the time to suspect them. Your suspicion of Ravenii is based on how they were saved so the two aren't mutually exclusive.

Given that Ravenii appeared to be "helped" by two other players, that would suggest that they are all traitors (by your logic). One traitor is already dead although that could be the Master of Whisperers (unfortunate for us), which would make the three of them the only traitors left in the game. I think this highly unlikely.

We could lynch Ravenii and, if they are a traitor, assume we know who the lot are. Or we go for someone else and wait for more info to become available. For me, now, Ravenii's posts seem plausible and I'm worried by ufcgrad.
 
jimN said:
Given that Ravenii appeared to be "helped" by two other players, that would suggest that they are all traitors (by your logic). One traitor is already dead although that could be the Master of Whisperers (unfortunate for us), which would make the three of them the only traitors left in the game. I think this highly unlikely.

We could lynch Ravenii and, if they are a traitor, assume we know who the lot are. Or we go for someone else and wait for more info to become available. For me, now, Ravenii's posts seem plausible and I'm worried by ufcgrad.
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I just want to make this clear. I made a judgment call and was wrong. I am not in league with Ravenvii (unless he's a loyal). I came in after Sythas tied the vote, and I made a decision. It ended up being the wrong decision, but it was a decision nonetheless.

That said, I'm still confused by the Day 2 bandwagon on Ravenvii, and the subsequent anger with him now. Isn't it possible that both Pluto and Raven were loyal specials, and therefore neither of them were lying when invoking that?
 
jimN said:
My suspicion of UFCgrad is based on him following on from other people's votes for Ravenii with no evidence at the time to suspect them. Your suspicion of Ravenii is based on how they were saved so the two aren't mutually exclusive.
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ucfgrad93 voted for twietee the first day. He voted for you the 2nd day.

Is he suspect? Sure, just as much as the rest of us. But not at all based on him voting for ravenvii.

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WoodNUFC said:
That said, I'm still confused by the Day 2 bandwagon on Ravenvii, and the subsequent anger with him now. Isn't it possible that both Pluto and Raven were loyal specials, and therefore neither of them were lying when invoking that?
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It's absolutely plausible (and likely). But we have nothing better to go off of. To be honest, you're last on my list out of the 3 late votes. By then you'll likely not be on it at all or somebody more important will be on it at least...

Nobody is mad at ravenvii. It's just with his change and the two votes after him (you and Sythas) it's the only theory I have. I'm game for other theories if people can provide something.
 
jimN said:
My suspicion of UFCgrad is based on him following on from other people's votes for Ravenii with no evidence at the time to suspect them. Your suspicion of Ravenii is based on how they were saved so the two aren't mutually exclusive
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I'm sorry you are worried about me, but I never voted for Ravenvii. Nor have I switched my vote once it has been cast.

SilentPanda said:
ucfgrad93 voted for twietee the first day. He voted for you the 2nd day.

Is he suspect? Sure, just as much as the rest of us. But not at all based on him voting for ravenvii.

It's absolutely plausible (and likely). But we have nothing better to go off of. To be honest, you're last on my list out of the 3 late votes. By then you'll likely not be on it at all or somebody more important will be on it at least...

Nobody is mad at ravenvii. It's just with his change and the two votes after him (you and Sythas) it's the only theory I have. I'm game for other theories if people can provide something.
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Thank you for pointing out my votes to jimN.
 
SilentPanda said:
ucfgrad93 voted for twietee the first day. He voted for you the 2nd day.

Is he suspect? Sure, just as much as the rest of us. But not at all based on him voting for ravenvii.

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It's absolutely plausible (and likely). But we have nothing better to go off of. To be honest, you're last on my list out of the 3 late votes. By then you'll likely not be on it at all or somebody more important will be on it at least...

Nobody is mad at ravenvii. It's just with his change and the two votes after him (you and Sythas) it's the only theory I have. I'm game for other theories if people can provide something.
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im getting confused.

are you talking about woodnfc and sythas? ravenii is safe?
 
We're going to have to kill a few more people (most likely) to get enough info to make a truly informed vote. We got lucky nabbing a traitor on the first go, which means there's lots of loyals and not necessarily enough info just yet.
 
rick snagwell said:
your list.

ravenii
woodnfc
sythas


???

if so, what about everyone not talking?
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Yes those are my top three based on yesterday. I'm sure some of the quiet people are traitors too but as for them, it'd just be random guesses.

Who is on your list? Nobody else has made a good case for others. I'm open to listening.
 
I might add a few (weak) points to the ravenvii-case to those SilentPanda already mentioned:

+ voting behavior Day1, he's still one of those who came late to the Jav-party (I am too as was Pluto so that is no proof whatsoever but still)

+ put into perspective we had actually three people who claimed to be special (in my book) more or less disguised on day2 (first scepticalscribe, second was tomorrow, then ravenvii). Of course no baddie would claim to be a special that early because of the reason jimN mentioned; but it is one of the very few effective tools one could use when about to be lynched. In ravenvii's case there were actually two people getting away with that already, ss and tomorrow, so even the threat of being scanned could be seen as 1/3.

- there is a remote chance that ravenvii and Sythas form the Handmaidens/Nightwatch, which I doubt but it's still possible. I don't believe it because they'd have maneuvered themselves into a situation whereas one outing himself would immediately shed some light onto the other. They both are experienced players and I doubt they'd have played it like that.


Players I feel (especially) uncomfortable with atm:

ravenvii
jimN - pops only up when his name is mentioned, made no good case with UCF while criticising us for making one for ravenvii :p
costabunny - hops on every bandwagon available, refers to me as experienced, late Jav-hopper
woodnufc - didn't really convince me with his explanation for 'I know for a fact'
scepticalscribe - nothing tangible


Players I feel (remotely) comfortable with atm: SilentPanda and QoS both mostly because of Day1 voting behavior also because I can understand their posts. :D
 
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I generally speak when spoken to on here and my involvement is pretty dependent on my work pattern.

My case against ufcgrad got a little confused but I put that down to chronic sleep deprivation that night shifts bring. It wasn't his joining of the Ravenii bandwagon, it was actually his enthusiasm to jump on me that got my goat.

Essentially I attracted a vote for posting immediately after Silentpanda (I think) promised to vote for the next person who posted. I'd been drinking and it seemed like a good idea at the time. Suddenly two people weighed in with additional votes for me when I'd attracted no interest thus far. At one point I was second in the queue for the hangman's noose.

It was this enthusiasm that people showed to jump on me that made me suspicious of the jumpees. As I said before we have no knowledge about anyone here. We have to assume that someone has managed at least two scans although the Master of Whisperers could have been lynched day 1 as they would show up to the handmaidens as a traitor. This would have meant we wouldn't even have answers via the passive scan person - however, if these two are untouched and have now had two nights to find someone it should suggest that two people at least should have a firm grasp on a traitor (if they have scanned one).

That's all I got for theories and is based on sod all evidence. I don't buy the whole Ravenii thing although I accept that any defence of Ravenii could result in my own rapid lynching if they're prove to be a traitor, or give me credibility if we hang an innocent.

When's the next deadline?
 
jimN said:
It was this enthusiasm that people showed to jump on me that made me suspicious of the jumpees.
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Fair enough. But why do you think UCF jumping on 'your' trail is more suspicious than i.e. ravenvii jumping on Jav's trail - a proven Traitor? Sounds very subjective. One thing is right though: Jav could have been the Master of Whispers, but that's so unlikely that I don't want to even think about it. :eek: :D

Also, you never gathered more than two votes, right?

This would have meant we wouldn't even have answers via the passive scan person - however, if these two are untouched and have now had two nights to find someone it should suggest that two people at least should have a firm grasp on a traitor (if they have scanned one).
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Can you please explain that some more? I don't understand the last part of it. Why should two people have a firm grasp on a Traitor?
 
A few are saying my theory is wrong, and it likely is, but nobody is really swaying me otherwise. So I'm going to go with ravenvii lest I look like I don't believe what I'm saying. I'll switch if something more convincing comes around. Way too many quiet people.
 
I am still befuddled a bit as to how the evidence points to certain people. I am going to be staying on my plan of following others advice for now. Perhaps after a few games i might get a handle on how the behavioural patterns point to certain people/roles, but for now its still a mystery to me.

I have issues judging people and their intentions in real life so this is even more of a challenge.

I must say i am flattered that i am drawing some suspicion (means i am doing something in game terms to exhibit a particular profile). I just wish i could nail how to act in a way to show my loyalty.

I am learning (perhaps i need a mentor, but thats not allowed i think).

This time i shall stick to my guns on my vote unless evidence shows that to be in error.

By the way ; having a hog-roast at my place tonight - bring your own mead (and don't ask where the hog came from ;) )
 
twietee said:
Can you please explain that some more? I don't understand the last part of it. Why should two people have a firm grasp on a Traitor?
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Could rather than should. My understanding is that the Faceless Man discovers the outcomes of the Master of Whisperers scans. Therefore if there has been one useful scan then two people should know it.

The maximum number of votes I've received is three, at the time Plutonius had 4 and some quick vote switching could have easily seen me lynched when just a couple of hours earlier I had had none.

Hope that all makes sense.
 
jimN said:
My understanding is that the Faceless Man discovers the outcomes of the Master of Whisperers scans. Therefore if there has been one useful scan then two people should know it.
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I don't see that in the rules tbh. It says

- Faceless Man scan: Players x,y,z were the target of good actions.

nowhere is stated that he gets informed who the Master of Whispers targeted, the Vulture and so on. Maybe chrmjenkins can clarify?
 
jimN said:
Could rather than should. My understanding is that the Faceless Man discovers the outcomes of the Master of Whisperers scans. Therefore if there has been one useful scan then two people should know it
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I *think* the Faceless Man only knows who is the target of loyal scans. Not who targetted who or what the result of the scan is. I've only inferred this based on the conversation starting here. Maybe chrmnjenkins can clarify since I believe the role is new and there's not a lot written up on the role yet.
 
twietee said:
I don't see that in the rules tbh. It says

- Faceless Man scan: Players x,y,z were the target of good actions.

nowhere is stated that he gets informed who the Master of Whispers targeted, the Vulture and so on. Maybe chrmjenkins can clarify?
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FM gets the target of good actions (Master of Whispers, Silent Sister, Vulture). They do not get the originator of the action or the type of action. They only get night time actions (day time would be redundant since those are thread announced).
 
chrmjenkins said:
FM gets the target of good actions (Master of Whispers, Silent Sister, Vulture). They do not get the originator of the action or the type of action. They only get night time actions (day time would be redundant since those are thread announced).
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Thanks!

That's how I understood it, but I worded it badly I guess.
 
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