Apple Vision Pro Could Take Four Generations to Reach 'Ideal Form'

[aevan]

Worst, a large iPod.

The iPad could have been a masterpiece if it ran Mac OS. It has 20 versions out there and still it's just a large iPhone.

If you think an iPad is a large iPhone or a large iPod today, you are either hyperbolic/malicious/cynical or grossly uninformed.

The form factor alone allows for a whole new category of apps, and that’s even without taking into account other hardware differences (such as the Pencil or the M-series chip in Pro models) or the software differences with iPadOS.

I have many grievances with the iPad, but to say it’s just a small iPhone/iPod just tells me - wait for it - you’re using it wrong.

I use mine for flying and that's about it.

It’s a “you problem”, not an “iPad problem”.

 

[rp2011]

Replace the iPad? Nahh. Different use cases. The "fix" for the iPad Pro is easy. Mac OS. Done

 

[kevcube]

My god is Gurman dumb. He has sources, obviously, but that is the only thing keeping him afloat. His own „analysis“ is just incredibly shallow.

he's probably quite smart to have gotten where he is, but his employers want what he keeps producing. I don't think he's to blame here.

 

[ProfessionalFan]

Apple not running a single ad for the Vision Pro during the Super Bowl was a choice. I know Apple doesn't run SB ads besides the halftime show but still.

Leads credence to them not being too optimistic about it.

 

[G5isAlive]

Mac sold 70k units in 100 days. There’s always naysayers but the Mac was a success. ”People said that about Mac” when talking about the Vision is more false than true. It’s a false equivalency.

So let me understand, 70k in 100 days (mac) is a success but 80k in a weekend (AVP) is a failure? Riiiiiight.

I was talking about when the Mac was released. I owned one.

 

[G5isAlive]

That doesn’t sound fun to me.

Not my concern. I did enjoy my AVP and what I can do with it now. I think it’s been obvious from the start this tech, like all tech is going to take several iterations to mature, but it’s fun and useful to me already.

 

[G5isAlive]

Apple not running a single ad for the Vision Pro during the Super Bowl was a choice. I know Apple doesn't run SB ads besides the halftime show but still.

Leads credence to them not being too optimistic about it.

Or they didn’t need to spend the money on advertising what was already sold out? Ads are to generate ROI. Apple sponsored the half time show, they didn’t need to say more. Reading the tea leaves often says more about the reader than the tea.

 

[Greenmeenie]

The iPad could have been a masterpiece if it ran Mac OS. It has 20 versions out there and still it's just a large iPhone. I use mine for flying and that's about it. Also run a pretty big YouTube review channel and not one time, ever, would I have even considered doing real music production or film editing on the iPad over my MacBook Pro. People say "well if you put macOS on iPad it'll run into Mac sales....so WHAT? IT GOES IN THE SAME POCKET, who cares, let it.
The iPad is, has been and always will be held back from any full potential as long as it runs a glorified iPhone OS. I don't even see a difference between just having a iPad Air vs a pro. Ah, yes, the camera ...which is still **** on both...

Altho I think the iPad Pro will indeed someday be able to run MacOS, I totally disagree with your opinion that the iPad cannot be used for real professional creative work. Maybe for YOU. And that’s fine. But for me & many other PROFESSIONAL artists & creatives, it is more than enough, and in some cases BETTER than a MacBook Pro. First of all, it is a superior digital sketchbook. So many artists, illustrators & graphic designers working today use the iPad & Apple pencil exclusively for professional work. But that aside, I know many musicians & filmmakers & content creators who also use the iPad exclusively & who are making a living & a tremendous amount of money using an iPad Pro over a Mac Book Pro. Just because it doesn’t work for you doesn’t make it a non professional non serious creation device. You have every right to say it doesn’t work for you. But you are way off when you say it isn’t enough for other professional creatives & artists.

 

[G5isAlive]

Hard disagree. All firstmover products are like this. If they were never released, we would never get to the product that most of us should buy. You should not buy one is more accurate (specifically you, not everyone).

This. People decide it’s not for them, whatever reasons, cool. You’d think if they were confident in their decision they could leave it at that. But no, it has to be a bad product wrong for everyone.

Well I guess this beats the endless ‘Apple doesn’t innovate’ discussions.

 

[AndiG]

80k in a weekend (AVP) is a failure? Riiiiiight.

I wouldn't overestimate that. There are lots of Apple fans that have enough money and would buy anything from Apple. Also a lot of companies and devs who are trying to get rich with the next big thing (the Vision is not).

It will be interesting to see what happens when Apple releases the consumer version at a reasonable price. There also needs to be a usecase (besides p0rn) and enough content and apps to make this thing sell. At the moment it is just another VR headset, you can‘t even connect it to a PS5 and play the latest VR stuff.

 

[AndiG]

Well I guess this beats the endless ‘Apple doesn’t innovate’ discussions.

Apple invented VR headset? 🤦🏼‍♂️

 

[michelb76]

Apple not running a single ad for the Vision Pro during the Super Bowl was a choice. I know Apple doesn't run SB ads besides the halftime show but still.

Leads credence to them not being too optimistic about it.

Why would they run ads for something that is not a consumer product (in their own words)?

 

[G5isAlive]

Apple invented VR headset? 🤦🏼‍♂️

Didn’t say that. Not at all. Just observed those innovation discussions were fewer. No one in the current field ‘invented VR’. I saw my first demonstration of it over 30 years ago at Disney, an Aladdin’s carpet ride simulator. What Apple has done now is push further than most of the commercially available headsets things like on board computer capability, screen resolution, and gesture control without physical handheld components, to name a few things.

 

[G5isAlive]

I wouldn't overestimate that. There are lots of Apple fans that have enough money and would buy anything from Apple. Also a lot of companies and devs who are trying to,get rich with the next big thing (the Vision is not).

It will be interesting to see what happens when Apple releases the consumer version at a reasonable price. There also needs to be a usecase (besides p0rn) and enough content and apps to make this thing sell. At the moment it is just another VR headset, you can‘t even connect it to a PS5 and play the latest VR stuff.

And this differs from the 128k Mac release how? My point was and is that’s it’s hypocritical to call the Mac release with 70k sold in 100 days a success and 80k units sold in 2 days a failure. Apple has always had its enthusiasts, just as its always had its haters. You don’t have to quote my whole post, but don’t cherry pick to distort context.

The AVP is not for just games. You don’t need pass through vision for VR, you need it for AR. Not the same thing.

 

[Rogifan]

Apple not running a single ad for the Vision Pro during the Super Bowl was a choice. I know Apple doesn't run SB ads besides the halftime show but still.

Leads credence to them not being too optimistic about it.

They ran ads for it during the playoffs.

 

[AndiG]

Didn’t say that. Not at all. Just observed those innovation discussions were fewer. No one in the current field ‘invented VR’. I saw my first demonstration of it over 30 years ago at Disney, an Aladdin’s carpet ride simulator. What Apple has done now is push further than most of the commercially available headsets things like on board computer capability, screen resolution, and gesture control without physical handheld components, to name a few things.

Yes that‘s true. But I find it remarkably that Apple didn‘t solve any of the common VR problems, like motion sickness (nausea and dizziness) or uncanny valley. But yes, you can consider the gesture control and eye tracking innovation.

For me it is just a little bit odd to call a 3 trillion dollar company „innovative“ cause it improved the gesture control of a VR headset within 10 years …

 

[AndiG]

And this differs from the 128k Mac release how? My point was and is that’s it’s hypocritical to call the Mac release with 70k sold in 100 days a success and 80k units sold in 2 days a failure. Apple has always had its enthusiasts, just as its always had its haters. You don’t have to quote my whole post, but don’t cherry pick to distort context.

The AVP is not for just games. You don’t need pass through vision for VR, you need it for AR. Not the same thing.

Simple question. If the AVP sells 128k units after 5 years, I would call it a success, too. But not a short release peak of a developer and enthusiasts version. What if those 70K is everything Apple will ever sell?

 

[G5isAlive]

Yes that‘s true. But I find it remarkably that Apple didn‘t solve any of the common VR problems, like motion sickness (nausea and dizziness) or uncanny valley. But yes, you can consider the gesture control and eye tracking innovation.

For me this is just a little bit odd to call a 3 trillion dollar company „innovative“ cause it improved the gesture control of a VR headset within 10m years …

Eh, not going to argue the definition of 'innovative' since that really was not my original point (though I see I probably muddied the waters sorry).

However, to the extent nausea and dizziness can be solved with headsets, I think Apple has gone further than any of the other popular headsets. I know the Quest line makes me nauseous but the APV hasn't for a second with over 30 hours of usage. I realize some report it does.

I had to look up 'uncanny valley' to find out you were referring to personas (yes?). Eh, to me personas are absolutely the least important aspect of AVP and I would be fine if they never were incorporated. To me it says more about our vanity than the technical achievement that there is so much focus on it.

 

[G5isAlive]

Simple question. If the AVP sells 128k units after 5 years, I would call it a success, too. But not a short release peak of a developer and enthusiasts version. What if those 70K is everything Apple will ever sell?

I tend not to dwell in the what ifs. But if I had to bet, I would bet Apple will have no problem selling more than 70 k AVP's initially sold. And I bet you would bet the same way. Time will tell.

I just think this is too large a category to continue to fail. It will get the momentum it needs at some point, 3rd gen? 4th gen? Shrugs. don't know.

 

[svish]

Not expecting to see a new generation of Vision Pro every year. Expect a refresh every 2 to 3 years. Will easily take 7 to 10 years before it becomes widely adopted.

 

[AndiG]

I tend not to dwell in the what ifs. But if I had to bet, I would bet Apple will have no problem selling more than 70 k AVP's initially sold. And I bet you would bet the same way. Time will tell.

I just think this is too large a category to continue to fail. It will get the momentum it needs at some point, 3rd gen? 4th gen? Shrugs. don't know.

Maybe, yes. I‘m just a person (and many other with me) who do not want to wear a helmet all day long - maybe to look at an avatar who does also wear a helmet.

There are of course some usecases. But the Hololens concept of Microsoft didi it 10 years ago - perfect, no helmet, clear vision of your environment, super useful - but MS never managed to release it as a mass product (there is a military version in development, but also this one struggles).
And I do work on perfect 32“ monitors all day long - never would I switch to wearing heavy googles. But yes maybe with another 10 years and some billion dollars - who knows, maybe Apple releases the next google Glass/Hololens with rendering power of a PS5.

 

[Onelifenofear]

contact lenses is the end goal for sure but it seems so far away...like how does that even work? how does it display anything your eye can focus on and how is it powered? contacts need to be soft and flexible so how can you put any kind of tech in that? your eye is natural moist so how do you get electricals functioning in it?

yeah maybe in a couple decades. we'll see the tech packed into a basic pair of glasses. even that feels like it's far away. i'm curious to see how apple can shrink the hardware down to fit into a slim glasses style product. i saw a concept render of such a thing and though yeah that's where this is heading. it's just going to take a long time. processor shrinks are hitting a wall so i don't know how much more smaller/efficient they can get and power source is a major issue. we really need advances on battery technology.

Contact lens already in progress.

The end game may be a lot more advanced. Direct to brain images... This has already been achieved in very low Rez for the blind people. But it's an implant which is not practical.

A pair of glasses would negate the need of so many cameras and large screens or any of the other stuff. I am suprised they didn't make the battery a compute unit and take most of the electronics out of the eyewear. Magic leap did that and have much smaller glasses. Perhaps that's another goal to make it cheaper... your iPhone becomes the compute. The eyewear is just screens and lenses.

Waveguide projection lenses are the short term goal. There is a reason Apple are pushing this as AR and not VR... at some point there won't be light blockers. I suppose the could just have a simple cover and you have VR.

 

[cardfan]

From what I’ve heard, no the iPhone’s spacial video does suffer somewhat from lack of separation but it is still more impactful than just 2D video. if Apple changes the layout of the cameras on a future iPhone to space the cameras out that will make for better spatial videos.

It’s also not hdr. 1080p. 30fps.

 

[cardfan]

I got the first iPhone at the same time. I lost or damaged it and I bought another one, because I liked it so much.

And I got the first Vision Pro.

We're both 13+ years older than we were and we both have 1st Gen iPhone cred. But I think the Vision Pro is fantastic from the get go. It's not what it's going to be, but then neither was the iPhone. One major difference is that the iPhone was pretty much what it was. It didn't get new functionality throughout its first year. I had to buy the iPhone 3G to get any real updates.

Vision Pro will steadily get more useful, even on this initial hardware. The apps will get more plentiful and they'll get better than they are now.

The apps might get better but still useless for work. Look at the iPad.

 

[GrayFlannel]

So let me understand, 70k in 100 days (mac) is a success but 80k in a weekend (AVP) is a failure? Riiiiiight.

I was talking about when the Mac was released. I owned one.

Remind me where I mentioned Vision is or would be a failure?