Last Sunday a guy from the Greek Church near my work refused to use a parking meter because an Asian lady touched the screen of the machine.
Sorry off topic but yeah we will certainly grow social paranoia for years to come.
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Coronavirus (Covid-19) informational thread
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Last Sunday a guy from the Greek Church near my work refused to use a parking meter because an Asian lady touched the screen of the machine.
Sorry off topic but yeah we will certainly grow social paranoia for years to come.
Aerosol and surface stability of HCoV-19 (SARS-CoV-2) compared to SARS-CoV-1
A novel human coronavirus, now named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, referred to as HCoV-19 here) that emerged in Wuhan, China in late 2019 is now causing a pandemic[1][1]. Here, we analyze the aerosol and surface stability of HCoV-19 and compare it with SARS-CoV-1...
New Coronavirus Study Shows How Long It Survives On Different Surfaces
New research out of the National Institutes of Health finds that the novel coronavirus HCoV-19 (SARS-2) causing the COVID-19 pandemic can survive for days on plastic and stainless steel and even lasts up to a full day on a cardboard surface.
www.forbes.com
here are some numbers (do not know about the reliability)
[automerge]1584458148[/automerge]
it is amongst us
no need to get racial about it
(and I honestly and personally do think many of us are already over it without even knowing)
Well i was in complete shock , first i thought he was joking but when he start swearing and insulting i had a go at him but in a nice way.
The Asian lady was gone when he was swearing so its good she didn't hear it.
Exactly they are both important!!!
[automerge]1584459156[/automerge]
Need to get a set of those clappy hands to smack people with. And sanitize after each use.before you slap him ... make sure you properly wash your hands!
Outside of the treatments and vaccine news from COVID19, this may be the most positive news to come out of the outbreak.
www.bloomberg.com
Coronavirus Could Very Well Slow by the Summer
Evidence is emerging that warmer temperatures and higher humidity can indeed affect the disease’s spread.
www.bloomberg.com
....and his face?before you slap him ... make sure you properly wash your hands!
Italy said the peak was expected by tomorrow or the day after tomorrow.
So I really hope we'd start seeing some reduced number of cases starting next week or so, since most countries are following Italy's example of hunkering down for awhile. Lockdowns in Western countries are not as strict as Wuhan's, so we'll see whether Italy's is effective enough.
So I really hope we'd start seeing some reduced number of cases starting next week or so, since most countries are following Italy's example of hunkering down for awhile. Lockdowns in Western countries are not as strict as Wuhan's, so we'll see whether Italy's is effective enough.
Back when things were normal (this is a joke, and at the same time it isn't..), and I took public transport on average twice a day to get to work, it was astounding how many people were just coughing it up without trying to shield their mouths in any way even when people were sitting right next to them. Combined with the fact that it took all of this to happen for many people to learn how to properly wash their hands would, were I a superstitious man, have me thinking all of this is happening for a reason.
Alas, it's all because of a bat.
In South Korea, where testing is ubiquitous, sure. In the United States, where testing is rare and expensive, who knows?
We have no idea how many asymptomatic carriers are out there.
And yet, they look to be close to finding the best viable treatment (HIV and anti-malarial cocktail)
I thought that the guidance to wash your hands for at least 20 seconds was overkill, but then I saw an explanation that it can actually take that long to get the germs out of your hand's cracks and crevices. Perhaps it really depends on how smooth or wrinkly your hands are!
One way to measure the time while you're washing is to hum the ABC song to yourself.
...or...
One way to measure the time while you're washing is to hum the ABC song to yourself.
...or...
US cases up ~1800 today to a bit over 6400 total. We're at 109 deaths and 106 full recoveries.
The increase in cases is especially alarming given that yesterday's increase was a bit short of 1K.
On the local front, Kentucky is up to 26 cases(including 1 death and 1 full recovery), so at least the spread here is slow at this point. I'm hoping that the strong steps the governor has taken keeps the growth slow. So far, things are looking promising considering that the first case was reported 11 days ago(March 6th). Although still early, the slope of the total case count increase seems to have decreased over the past few days.
(chart taken from the Lexinton Herald Leader, https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article241165146.html ). Today, the governor also announced the closure of remaining business where people "tend to congregate" including a pretty wide swath of non-essential service based businesses. At this point, there are no restrictions on retail at least per my understanding.
The news that Italy expects to be "over the hump" is promising. It's my hope that it is indeed the case there, and hopefully gives us some insight into how the next few weeks will play out especially given the proactive containment measures being taken across the country.
Per this site, which I've been referencing for bulk numbers over the past several days
www.worldometers.info
It looks like today's increase was 3,526 cases. That's a bit higher than yesterday's 3,233, but about the same as the previous day's. That is good news that new cases seem to be at least leveling off, and I hope that as new cases decrease and recoveries increase, their total active count can decrease. Seeing that happen would be very positive news.
As a side note, the analytical chemist in me has appreciated the distraction/something to do of crunching numbers in ways that make sense to me. I suppose that there's a certain mindset in that which comes with the career path. I ran into my graduate advisor while I was at work yesterday and talked to him(from 6 feet away ) for a few minutes. Apparently he's been doing much the same, and it was interesting to see how he and I are looking at numbers both similarly and differently. For a few minutes, it almost felt like I was back in graduate school and in a group meeting showing him experiment data to discuss again.
The increase in cases is especially alarming given that yesterday's increase was a bit short of 1K.
On the local front, Kentucky is up to 26 cases(including 1 death and 1 full recovery), so at least the spread here is slow at this point. I'm hoping that the strong steps the governor has taken keeps the growth slow. So far, things are looking promising considering that the first case was reported 11 days ago(March 6th). Although still early, the slope of the total case count increase seems to have decreased over the past few days.
(chart taken from the Lexinton Herald Leader, https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article241165146.html ). Today, the governor also announced the closure of remaining business where people "tend to congregate" including a pretty wide swath of non-essential service based businesses. At this point, there are no restrictions on retail at least per my understanding.
The news that Italy expects to be "over the hump" is promising. It's my hope that it is indeed the case there, and hopefully gives us some insight into how the next few weeks will play out especially given the proactive containment measures being taken across the country.
Per this site, which I've been referencing for bulk numbers over the past several days
Italy COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
Italy Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info
It looks like today's increase was 3,526 cases. That's a bit higher than yesterday's 3,233, but about the same as the previous day's. That is good news that new cases seem to be at least leveling off, and I hope that as new cases decrease and recoveries increase, their total active count can decrease. Seeing that happen would be very positive news.
As a side note, the analytical chemist in me has appreciated the distraction/something to do of crunching numbers in ways that make sense to me. I suppose that there's a certain mindset in that which comes with the career path. I ran into my graduate advisor while I was at work yesterday and talked to him(from 6 feet away
) for a few minutes. Apparently he's been doing much the same, and it was interesting to see how he and I are looking at numbers both similarly and differently. For a few minutes, it almost felt like I was back in graduate school and in a group meeting showing him experiment data to discuss again.
Are the statistics somewhat misleading because more test kits are getting into the hands of local health centers? That could lead to higher numbers of diagnoses that would otherwise be missed. In other words, the number of new infections could actually be lower than on previous days, while the number of them that were recognized increased.
For anyone interested (I realize not many) in HOUSTON, Texas statistics:
www.khou.com
Coronavirus cases: Houston, Fort Bend, Montgomery, Brazoria, more
COVID-19 cases continue to surge in the Houston area. This is a county-by-county map of all of the confirmed cases.
www.khou.com
Speaking of numbers, here's a nice article about graphing the data on a semi-log scale:...
As a side note, the analytical chemist in me has appreciated the distraction/something to do of crunching numbers in ways that make sense to me. I suppose that there's a certain mindset in that which comes with the career path. I ran into my graduate advisor while I was at work yesterday and talked to him(from 6 feet away
Exponential growth and log scales
leancrew.com
It's more about the "making" aspects of the graph, but I thought the graph itself was both interesting and revealing.
As noted in the article, using an exponent base of 2 instead of 10 or something else means that the Y axis directly shows the doubling of cases. Given that the R0 for COVID-19 is estimated at 2.0 (as I recall; it may be different now), I think that a graph of doubling is more informative than one with a linear Y scale, which would show a typical hockey-stick exponential curve pretty quickly. Hockey-sticks are more dramatic, but I don't think they're as useful as a good semi-log graph.
One side effect of calculating and graphing doubling is that one can easily calculate the number of days between doublings of a linear fit. That's shown at around 2.3 or 2.4, depending on which graph you look at. It's definitely between 2 and 3 days, and the linear fit looks pretty good, so that's pretty much how I expect things to play out: doubling every 2-3 days.
Note that he graphs the US overall figures, so there may well be regional or even local variations that would produce different graphs, and different doubling rates when graphed.
There is also the question, as @Doctor Q noted, of possible changes in counts simply because more test kits are being produced, so more people are being sampled, and a more accurate count is possible. I'm wondering about the question of metrics (getting good measurements) and how that will change over time, and for various reasons.
I've made that comment to several people in person, and I suspect that it is the case for a lot of the numbers being seen in the US as testing ramps up.
IIRC, there was a very dramatic one-day spike in China when the reporting criteria changed from "tested positive" to "shows symptoms." I'll be interested to see if that happens here.
Isn’t the latest research showing that to keep the curve flattened, these measures have to stay in effect?US cases up ~1800 today to a bit over 6400 total. We're at 109 deaths and 106 full recoveries.
The increase in cases is especially alarming given that yesterday's increase was a bit short of 1K.
On the local front, Kentucky is up to 26 cases(including 1 death and 1 full recovery), so at least the spread here is slow at this point. I'm hoping that the strong steps the governor has taken keeps the growth slow. So far, things are looking promising considering that the first case was reported 11 days ago(March 6th). Although still early, the slope of the total case count increase seems to have decreased over the past few days.
View attachment 899646
(chart taken from the Lexinton Herald Leader, https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article241165146.html ). Today, the governor also announced the closure of remaining business where people "tend to congregate" including a pretty wide swath of non-essential service based businesses. At this point, there are no restrictions on retail at least per my understanding.
The news that Italy expects to be "over the hump" is promising. It's my hope that it is indeed the case there, and hopefully gives us some insight into how the next few weeks will play out especially given the proactive containment measures being taken across the country.
Per this site, which I've been referencing for bulk numbers over the past several days
Italy COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
Italy Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
It looks like today's increase was 3,526 cases. That's a bit higher than yesterday's 3,233, but about the same as the previous day's. That is good news that new cases seem to be at least leveling off, and I hope that as new cases decrease and recoveries increase, their total active count can decrease. Seeing that happen would be very positive news.
As a side note, the analytical chemist in me has appreciated the distraction/something to do of crunching numbers in ways that make sense to me. I suppose that there's a certain mindset in that which comes with the career path. I ran into my graduate advisor while I was at work yesterday and talked to him(from 6 feet away
Very common and its very annoying but i guess we learned a hard lesson from now onwards.
Listed below are additional measures that are being taken in my city effective as of now, some other members may be able to compare/contrast if this applies to you and your demographic where you reside, some of these rules are fairly common, others are stringent:
Rumored:
‘Allegedly‘ car rental stations will be prohibited starting next week, this will vary on your target area.
- Any/all convenience stores/restaurants cannot allow any type of fountain refills for drinks, or public coffee refills at gas stations/coffee shops are prohibited.
- No public food samples are permitted whatsoever in any grocery store/restaurant.
- All convenience/gas station stores are to have a ‘hand sanitizer station’ at the front of every entrance before a customer enters for usage.
- All ATMs at convenience/gas stations have been temporarily stopped for usage due to cross contamination of touching.
- All police services have closed their lobbies, there are no ‘in-house’ contacts allowed with the officer/citizen, and all non-emergent contacts must be made outside a house/apartment/living quarters with direct contact with law-enforcement personnel
- Any/all fitness center/gyms have been closed temporarily until April 6 until further notice.
- All ‘24 hour’ grocery stores are no longer 24 hours, due to resupplying and sanitizing high traffic areas.
- All city transit systems are prohibited/ceased until April 6 for reevaluation
- To enter any clinic/hospital/urgent care, you must have a mask and gloves associated prior to entry with digital temp being administered.
- All restaurants are permitted for delivery only, no entries allowed to be made into the actual restaurant itself until further notice.
- All coffee shop/beverage stores are drive-through only, there is no entry allowed into any specific store.
- Any/all public gatherings larger than 8 outside a household must be approved prior to commencing.
‘Allegedly‘ car rental stations will be prohibited starting next week, this will vary on your target area.
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Unfortunately I don’t think one can conclude that the spread is slow. Assuming a mortality rate of 1%, infection rate of 1:2 and doubling rate of 5 days, then on the day the person died, there would be 1600 cases (mostly undetected since general screening often is not done to preserve test kits for making the diagnosis in the seriously ill), and doubling every 5 days. Eventually the curve shoots up. The early slow increases in detected numbers leads to a false sense of security.
Needs to be done. Should be less risky than going out for groceries, I would think.
