Coronavirus (Covid-19) informational thread

[compwiz1202]

I see no one provided feedback to you on your situation, Even though my post is now ‘after the fact’, here are my thoughts:

If It really concerns you and if you have any type of underlying health issues moving forward, (and if the pandemic is in a ‘community spread’ in your area), don’t do it. [It obviously concerns you enough where you posted your thoughts on here], but why risk something over ‘money that you might have lose’ in your situation. I have to agree with what is being rehashed by Health professionals, which is stay home if you have the opportunity to do so.

Now, I’m not saying don’t go out in public at all, but I feel the risk is higher on public transit systems versus say you driving your own car ‘to & from’.

Public transit systems in my city has been Deactivated strictly for that reason alone, is because they are trying to eliminate areas where the spread tends to manifest.

What pisses me off is places should be refunding without question no matter what the usual policy is if someone is trying to be safe.
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I went to a few stores yesterday to pick up various things. I found 90% of what I was looking for, fortunately.

I noticed that people seem a bit more stressed that a few days ago, which is understandable. Still polite, friendly, even, but more stressed.

But the main thing I noticed was an absence of law enforcement doing speed limit enforcement, combined with what seemed to be an increase in distracted and aggressive driving in general. I’m usually pretty vigilant regarding the behavior of other drivers, but I found myself being more so yesterday. There’s not quite as much traffic as before, but there’s enough to find oneself in an unfortunate situation if not paying attention.

I’m wondering if we’ll see more instances of road rage than usual as more and more people feel the stress of our current situation. It seems to me that social distancing may be a good thing when on the road, as well.

I'm starting to believe that even if there were only one other car on the road than me, they would still a rude idiot. And why is only every other driver in general either aggressive like you posted or driving like ten under??

 

[Huntn]

Looking at the links in post 1, I like the Johns Hopkins link, for the world map, then select a country to see the map for that specific country.

View attachment 897956​

From 7 March (346 cases in US), is this a 1000% increase?

 

[DeepIn2U]

What really sucks is for those of us looking for work still need to go into interviews and print off physical resumes and taking public transit.

carrying bleach wipes. staying clear away from others.

 

[Healer Flame]

What really sucks is for those of us looking for work still need to go into interviews and print off physical resumes and taking public transit.

What a pain, here if you lost your job you get paid straight by the government but it might take longer due to unexpected situation.

 

[hawkeye_a]

And why is only every other driver in general either aggressive like you posted or driving like ten under??

Well, they have to slow down if they're holding their phone up to their ear!! (Seriously though, so many people in my area doing 20 mph when the speed limit is 40. When i pass them, they're on their phone oblivious to the traffic around them. ~80% of the time at a red light, when I check my rear-view mirror people are on their phones.)

In the current situation, the last thing I want to have to deal with is an accident, and have been trying to be extra cautious.

 

[Doctor Q]

Articles are appearing discussing the idea of "herd immunity" as an approach to fighting the virus. It's the idea that once enough people are resistant to the virus (either by recovering from it or being vaccinated against it) then the chances that a susceptible person will encounter an infectious person are minimized. Of course, there's no vaccine yet, so until there is we can estimate that millions would have to get COVID-19 before we reach herd immunity, and we know that a percentage of those patients would die.

We don't yet know the extent to which recovery leads to immunity, nor the precise rate at which the virus spreads, so we don't know the percentage of immune people that it would take to reach herd (community) immunity. You can read about this approach and the math behind it in this MIT Technology Review article.

 

[michael9891]

Herd immunity has been talked about for a few weeks. At least it has here in the UK. But without a vaccine, it will just overload any health service in the world.

 

[JagdTiger]

Herd immunity has been talked about for a few weeks. At least it has here in the UK. But without a vaccine, it will just overload any health service in the world.

There could just be a natural immunity to the virus for some people.

 

[michael9891]

There could just be a natural immunity to the virus for some people.

I'm sure there would be. But with how countries are struggling to deal with it as it is, most won't be willing to risk a potential disastrous outcome.

 

[bunnspecial]

So, some potentially bright spots-today is the second day in a row that Italy has seen fewer new cases than the proceeding day. The next few days will be telling if that trend continues down, or if it's a temporary anomaly.

If Italy follows the same trend as China and the decrease in new infections holds, their active cases should plateau by the weekend and be on a downward trend by the beginning of next week. That also gives some hope that-also extrapolating-in two weeks they will have roughly have the number of active cases as the peak.

Given how closely the US is trending to Italy, that gives me SOME hope that some sense of normalcy might return by the middle of April, although that's VERY speculative on my part and I dread us going through what Italy has had to do to get there.

Of course, there are a bunch of factors that make the US and Italy not directly comparable. One of the biggest things is that even though the US's numbers are staggering now, the number of US cases per capita is relatively low. Yesterday's number(32,949) put the US at 10.3 cases/100,000 people, which is about where Italy was on March 7th(9.81).

 

[Falhófnir]

Herd immunity has been talked about for a few weeks. At least it has here in the UK. But without a vaccine, it will just overload any health service in the world.

This is the thing, either herd immunity through allowing natural spread of infection through the population (preferably in as controlled and slow a manner as possible) or via a vaccine is what is needed to properly get on top of this. Locking down the country might allow you to contain it, but no country is able to sustain an effective full lockdown for too long due to the severe economic (and social/ mental) impact.

What I think we will see then is a series of more intense, policed social segregation as the UK has just announced to halt infections as much as possible. Then, once rates of infection are well on the downswing, recoveries are picking up and pressure on hospitals is reduced, these measures will be relaxed, people will be told to get back to work to support the economy - but infections will then start to pick up again, until it is necessary to lock down again. This will go on repeatedly until herd immunity is achieved naturally or a vaccine is available.

 

[bunnspecial]

Then, once rates of infection are well on the downswing, recoveries are picking up and pressure on hospitals is reduced, these measures will be relaxed, people will be told to get back to work to support the economy - but infections will then start to pick up again, until it is necessary to lock down again. This will go on repeatedly until herd immunity is achieved naturally or a vaccine is available.

That unfortunately is one of the big unknowns at this point.

It's also still up in the air as to whether or not warmer weather will slow it down. I haven't dug into the literature on this, but reading news reports(for what they're worth) opinions seem divided on whether or not this is likely. On the plus side for this, the spread has seemed really slow in a lot of warmer-climate Asian and Middle Eastern countries(India seems to be one to watch for that-a hot, humid country with over 1 billion people still only has a few hundred reported cases).

Come May or so, when temperatures really start to rise at least in the US, it's entirely possible that it will a bit of a footnote and we won't hear another peep about it for a while.

That potentially can be a dangerous situation, though, because if that does happen and we don't develop a vaccine and/or get a viable treatment into place, chances are VERY good that it will come back with a vengeance in the fall.

That played out with the Spanish Flu in 1918, where the initial spring outbreak was nothing to what came in October/November 1918 and then a third, smaller wave in January/February of 1919.

If it DOES go away in the warmer weather, though, that gives us a few very valuable things if we play our cards right. By that time, we'll have had a chance to "reset" the healthcare system, hopefully get PPE built up so that healthcare workers don't have to reuse disposable masks(like my fiancé is now being told to do, even though they haven't seen any cases in her hospital yet) and get more ventilators and the like in place. As long as we don't get complacent, we can hit the "second wave" with some idea of what to do and hopefully be better prepared for it. That's all in addition, of course, to hopefully at least making progress on a vaccine and finding out of some of the currently circulating treatments are actually effective.

Of course, that is all speculative that warm, humid weather will slow the transmission.

 

[44267547]

I do think that warmer temperatures could pose some type of delay With the pandemic, but we obviously ultimately can’t rule that it won’t resurface At a later time.

My ultimate concern is not that we can’t find a cure, but if C/19 mutates into a different strain that might pose different symptoms/side effects, Perhaps become stronger in the sense if our immune system‘s cannot fully adapt to actually overcome it. I think this particular situation has the potential to become a vicious cycle in terms of once we actually have a ‘grasp’ on it, it surprises us with something totally unexpected.

There’s a few infectious doctors in my state that recently have spoken out that have followed the situation very closely since it’s inception in Wuhan, and they’re claiming that the worst part about C/19, is how unpredictable it will be in the future, Even with temporary remedies by ordering lockdowns/cancellations/quarantines.

 

[LizKat]

We have to be able to test people not showing symptoms when dealing with a highly contagious virus that passes through vectors that remain asymptomatic.

EDIT: @yaxomoxay was right in his comment below; part of my post was too political so I've chopped it. If you're curious, he did quote the original.

[~snip~] .... if everyone had been tested by now, we'd have mapped out areas that could be back to work already since containment locally would have been more feasible. [~snip~]

 

[yaxomoxay]

We have to be able to test people not showing symptoms when dealing with a highly contagious virus that passes through vectors that remain asymptomatic.

Trump is too dumb to realize that if everyone had been tested by now, we'd have mapped out areas that could be back to work already since containment locally would have been more feasible. Duh. By his myopic focus on "the numbers" he screws up and makes them unusable.

You're going into PRSI territory, so I'll bring it back to a more operational side. The problem is that,

1. We can't test everyone that has to be tested (a worldwide problem) because demand is way too high, testing is somewhat new, and the production can't meet the crazy demand.
2. Current testing methods require PPE (a worldwide problem)
3. Tests need to be sent to labs, and they are overwhelmed.
4. There are way too many people that think that they should be tested while they shouldn't. It's not like in the movies.

It's not a matter of keeping #'s low in the US. All countries are facing more or less the same problems, and all countries have supply, demand, distribution issues on top of quarantines. You also forget a HUGE problem, one that has been bothering me for a while and the elephant in the room no one wants to talk about, especially in countries that have been hit pretty hard: there is no vaccine, which means that this thing is NOT going away. We know for sure that a single asymptomatic individual can cause a global pandemic. There is no way, and I mean no way, to contain this until there is a vaccine. We're merely mitigating - shutting down economies, locking everyone home etc. But then what? What happens when you start reopening? One sick person goes grocery shopping and we're back at square one. And we know, we DO know, that even if we lock everyone in for two months as Italy is doing, the virus will come back because someone is still going to be sick. To this add this crazy thinking I see online - and on media - that testing is somewhat the miraculous answer. It isn't. It's important, don't get me wrong; testing helps focusing the response, which is important, but if you test negative today, you can - and probably will - test positive at a later date after you go grocery shopping, or after you put gas in your car or whatever. This thing is exponential and will remain exponential. I understand the talk of flattening the curve, but flattening the curve with a total shutdown is not really reassuring because by September (and I am being very generous here) we have to go back to some normalcy. Which means... back to square one. Are we going to close everything down in September or October? Again?

The keys are going to be:

1. Tests that don't require PPE.
2. Tests that don't require that much time to be analyzed, with preliminary results available in place.
3. A vaccine.

This thing is not easy, and I can't stand to see so much wasted ink (or pixels...) on frivolous polemics.
I read international news in multiple languages, and it seems that everyone is doing the same about the response (=blaming Trump, Conte, Johnson, Sanchez, Macron, etc... maybe not Kim Jong Un...), while all countries are facing more or less the very same operational issues, with little variation. To all of this, add all the idiots that disregard national, state, local policy and go to ... spring break parties and so on. Have you seen the video from the Italian governor of the region Campania? In the video he says that there are problems with youth partying, which means that he will "send the cops... with flamethrowers".
The truth is that this f'n virus doesn't care about the Executive Branch, it doesn't care about your nationality, it doesn't care about the form of government in your country. Democracy or Monarchy, the virus will act the same, the problems will be the same, and the solution will be the same: a vaccine.

 

[bunnspecial]

China is reportedly lifting the Wuhan lockdown

China to lift lockdown in most of virus-hit Hubei province

BEIJING (AP) — Chinese authorities said Tuesday they will end a two-month lockdown of most of coronavirus-hit Hubei province at midnight, as domestic cases of what has become a global pandemic subside.

apnews.com

That's almost exactly two months to the day from when it was first put into place(January 23rd).

There are a lot of reasons why China is different from the US, but one can hope that this gives us something of a timeline of when things might get back to some semblance of normal. With that said, there are different levels of "lockdown" implementation in the US so that adds a bit of unknown to us.

 

[LizKat]

It's important, don't get me wrong; testing helps focusing the response, which is important, but if you test negative today, you can - and probably will - test positive at a later date after you go grocery shopping, or after you put gas in your car or whatever. This thing is exponential and will remain exponential. I understand the talk of flattening the curve, but flattening the curve with a total shutdown is not really reassuring because by September (and I am being very generous here) we have to go back to some normalcy. Which means... back to square one. Are we going to close everything down in September or October? Again?

Flattening the curve now buys time now to develop more tests to enable better focus in future on mitigation. The idea is to reach herd immunity --let's say at 60%-- with or without a vaccine but to strive for it now would definitely overrun medical resources and endanger the caregivers in particular.

As for additional shutdowns, sure, possible. But very likely more localized, and transient. And less disruptive. Although by then there'll be enough TP in people's houses to fill all the potholes in the interstates coast to coast if tossed out in the road en masse... and manufacturers will be focusing on "wow, how to keep from laying off workers in good health while we figure out what to do with this revenue before Uncle Sam figures out what to do with it." That's not political btw, just accounting.

 

[yaxomoxay]

Flattening the curve now buys time now to develop more tests to enable better focus in future on mitigation. The idea is to reach herd immunity --let's say at 60%-- with or without a vaccine but to strive for it now would definitely overrun medical resources and endanger the caregivers in particular.

As for additional shutdowns, sure, possible. But very likely more localized, and transient. And less disruptive. Although by then there'll be enough TP in people's houses to fill all the potholes in the interstates coast to coast if tossed out in the road en masse... and manufacturers will be focusing on "wow, how to keep from laying off workers in good health while we figure out what to do with this revenue before Uncle Sam figures out what to do with it." That's not political btw, just accounting.

Only time will tell, the truth is that we don't really know much about this virus yet, let alone getting near a full-scale production of a vaccine.
Meanwhile, in Italy they're talking about keeping the lockdown until July 31st. The Italian economy is basically done.

 

[Doctor Q]

It's also still up in the air as to whether or not warmer weather will slow it down. I haven't dug into the literature on this, but reading news reports(for what they're worth) opinions seem divided on whether or not this is likely. On the plus side for this, the spread has seemed really slow in a lot of warmer-climate Asian and Middle Eastern countries(India seems to be one to watch for that-a hot, humid country with over 1 billion people still only has a few hundred reported cases).

Come May or so, when temperatures really start to rise at least in the US, it's entirely possible that it will a bit of a footnote and we won't hear another peep about it for a while.

If the approach of summer lowers the spread rate in the northern hemisphere, what happens in the southern hemisphere? Does the rate kick up there to the same peak? If Australia, New Zealand, South America, and southern Africa become the new hotbeds, will it spread right back to the north?

 

[FeliApple]

If the approach of summer lowers the spread rate in the northern hemisphere, what happens in the southern hemisphere? Does the rate kick up there to the same peak? If Australia, New Zealand, South America, and southern Africa become the new hotbeds, will it spread right back to the north?

I’m in the Southern Hemisphere and pretty scared of cases skyrocketing as soon as the temperature goes down. My country just doesn’t have the resources to fight a huge influx of cases. Summer has just finished here, and my country is beginning to increase the amount of testing significantly. I wouldn’t be surprised if cases skyrocket in the next few days, even if it’s due to testing.
That said, as bunn said, this is still up in the air. We don’t have a huge amount of cases... yet.

 

[tlnargi]

In the US death rate % appears to be dropping as we test more people.

COVID-19: What is the Actual Death Rate? — World of Reel

The U.S. death rate for the COVID-19 Coronavirus started off at 4% on March 8th, but the mortality rate, as more and more Americans are being tested, dipped to a record low of 1% on Sunday.

www.worldofreel.com

 

[yaxomoxay]

In the US death rate % appears to be dropping as we test more people.

COVID-19: What is the Actual Death Rate? — World of Reel

The U.S. death rate for the COVID-19 Coronavirus started off at 4% on March 8th, but the mortality rate, as more and more Americans are being tested, dipped to a record low of 1% on Sunday.

www.worldofreel.com

Yep, it's very good news for now. I think that the key is going to be hospital overload. If we can maintain hospitals somewhat accessible for those who actually need it, then we should be good.

 

[jeyf]

bad at math?
if you dont have enough test kits and only test patients showing symptoms you will get more positive numbers than if you test a more random sample.

death rate will not be coupled to testing

it is difficult to sample single percentage cases

 

[LTENETWORK]

Hello all. I have question. This is something what I can't understand. Maybe I'm so stupid, ok my english isn't perfect but I thing this is so stupid and Incomprehensible.
Can you explain or is it spelled correctly?

 

[smirking]

In the US death rate % appears to be dropping as we test more people.

It is and it should, but there’s one thing to be careful of. People keep counting the number of infected as the number of people who survived when in fact a small number of them are going to end up in the wrong column when all is said and done. Unless the hospitals are overrun, the deaths don’t happen quickly. South Korea initially had a fatality rate of .05%. Bit by bit they’ve climbed above 1% and are in the 1-2% range predicted by many experts.