iPhone X Production Faces Further Delays, Will Start in Mid-October

[IG88]

So Samsung flagship has been available since April and Apple’s struggling to release its flagship on November?

Apple has become the delays, struggling, low yields, ramping, etc company.

I don't understand the comparison. Samsung always launches that time of year. It's not like they were 6 months early this year. Conversely, Apple launched the 8/8+ on time, and built a 3rd phone to be released later.

You could make the argument that the 8 is really a 6SSS and I wouldn't disagree, but if anything I'd say the X availability will equal demand right as Samsung releases the Galaxy S9. That might actually take some sales away from Samsung, it's hard to say.

 

[DNichter]

I don’t buy it. It’ll sell out the same as it has every year though. At least pre-8.

 

[ghostface147]

The chaos on pre order night will be a sight to behold

Yet I’m still sure they’ll do better than Nintendo and SNES Classic pre-orders.

 

[kmichalec]

I will gladly let everyone else Guinea Pig this one out first. If they still are having issues/delays, not so sure I want to be one of the first ones to test them out.

 

[Spooner83]

 

[flat five]

I think I might wait for iPhone XS

Apple will not name a phone 'Xs'..
maybe if they wrote it as '10' then it's possible there would be a '10s'..

but no way are they going to make 'iPhone Xs'

 

[bunnicula]

Apple saw what worked with Nintendo's NES Classic and Switch. I'm sure they are taking a page form them. Set a limit on what they want to sell and then artificially create a shortage on the device so it can sell like hot cakes.

It'll surely distract from the price tag.

 

[Michael Scrip]

Self-proclaimed analyst Nozuka thinks that the production has been under way for a few weeks now and should be at full production speed soon.

A few weeks (21 days) at 10,000 units a day would only have 210,000 units right now... and a grand total of 650,000 units by November 3.

That's simply not enough.

Even if they doubled, tripled or quadrupled production... that's still less than 3 million units by November 3.

Those will be gone in minutes after pre-orders open on October 27th.

But let's say Apple can ramp up to 50,000 units a day. At that rate... it will take 20 days to make a million units.

And do you know how long it will take to sell a million units? Waaay less than 20 days.

This is gonna be a disaster.

iPhone X will be a great Valentine's Day gift (February 2018)... or graduation gift (June 2018)

 

[rafark]

This site points nov 4 as the in store release date, so I guess we physical guys will get some love.

http://www.techradar.com/news/iphone-x

 

[joeblow7777]

Why not ready Friday ? The 10th anniversary ipx timeline snuck up on them ? Sounds like bad decisions and last minute changes.

None of us can really say, but it's possible that they never intended to launch it in September, and the plan was always a staggered release with the 8.

But even if that's not the case, as I said, a company like Apple doesn't promise a release date before they even start making the product. They would not have told millions of customers, "you can buy this product in 7 weeks" if they hadn't even started producing it yet.

 

[bunnicula]

I'm skeptical of this report. If Apple wasn't sure it would have ample supply at least so the first 30 minutes of pre-orders could get release day, why not just say "Fall 2017?" Hard dates indicate some confidence that they can at least get more than 5 of these out the door on 11/3.

Agreed. We had that delay on the AirPods and they surely didn't promise them by X date.

 

[Gregg Thurman]

What does Ming Chi Kuo say? He's pretty much the only one I trust when it comes to supply chain.

Much of what Kuo says is conjecture that fails to materialize. At the same time, this year, his projections have been pretty good.

About a month ago Kuo stated that Apple is producing about 10,000 iPhone X units per day. Cutting out weekends that's 200,000+ per month.

The deal is that, I don't believe the iPhone X production rate of a month HAS NOT improved

On average for the past 3 years Apple has produced >830,000 handsets (of all models) per day during the December quarter.

With iPhone 8/Plus demand less than WE thought it should be, I expect Apple DID expect it and had planned to allocate greater production resources to the iPhone X.

Assuming 70% (average mix of last 3 years) of iPhones sold during the December quarter are the new model, then it can be reasonably (and conservatively) assumed that Apple had planned to produce ~580,000 per day of the iPhone 8/Plus and iPhone X. Projecting from here is difficult as there is no prior data to project from, that matches this year's launch. If we apply a 60/40 split favoring the iPhone X then Apple could conceivably produce (and sell) between 20 million and 22 million iPhone Xs during the December quarter. But, as I noted, my daily production number is conservative as WS if modeling a 12% YoY increase in iPhone unit sales during the December quarter.

Of the 12% increase YoY Wall Street has been forecasting 20 million iPhone X units for about a month. There is nothing new in this report.

I hold:
215 DEC $165/$170 Bull Call spreads
50 DEC $155 Calls (bought today) and,
80 OCT $152.50/$155 Bull Call spreads (bought today)

My DEC price target remains as before ($172 - $180). Consensus WS price target now stands at $184 with a standard deviation range of $178 - $189.

IF YOU ARE AN AAPL INVESTOR THERE IS NO REASON TO DELAY BUYING AAPL, ESPECIALLY AT TODAY'S PRICES.
[doublepost=1505953760][/doublepost]

None of us can really say, but it's possible that they never intended to launch it in September, and the plan was always a staggered release with the 8.

But even if that's not the case, as I said, a company like Apple doesn't promise a release date before they even start making the product. They would not have told millions of customers, "you can buy this product in 7 weeks" if they hadn't even started producing it yet.

Absolutely correct on all points.

 

[Spooner83]

None of us can really say, but it's possible that they never intended to launch it in September, and the plan was always a staggered release with the 8.

But even if that's not the case, as I said, a company like Apple doesn't promise a release date before they even start making the product. They would not have told millions of customers, "you can buy this product in 7 weeks" if they hadn't even started producing it yet.

Sure, but they did the same thing with the AirPods and look at how a disaster it was. People just started receiving theirs recently

 

[gadget123]

I'm glad im not getting the X with all those delays.

 

[bunnicula]

What a mess. Samsung will be ready to pounce. Apple will likely be 1 year behind on new technology features soon.

Samsung Wireless Charging - April 2017

Apple Wireless Charging - November 2017

How so? The 8/8 plus both have wireless charging, if that's your metric.

 

[Shadowbech]

Glad I went with the 8 Plus. Had I decided to get the iPhone X and missed it. I'd probably gotten the mid 2018 delivery and probably by then I might as well wait for the next one.

 

[flat five]

I had more or less decided I would wait until next year for a replacement for my 6 plus. I didn't realize that next years iPhone would be this years delayed iPhone.

I had promised the wife a phone this year. She isn't really thrilled with the 8's. And she currently has an iPhone 5. Don't know what she will think about waiting until (probably) late first quarter to get a phone whose replacement is only 6 months away (technically).

it remains to be seen whether or not the 8/8+ and the X lines will merge back together.

if the two lines remain unique, it's possible to have separate release dates (well, not only possible.. but actually happening).. or, we have no idea when an updated X will happen though we can remain pretty certain the 8s comes in September2018..

for all we know, the X lines could shift to spring and the others remain in the fall.

 

[Starfyre]

Maybe they are trying to get TMobiles new spectrum in or something...

 

[Wags]

None of us can really say, but it's possible that they never intended to launch it in September, and the plan was always a staggered release with the 8.

But even if that's not the case, as I said, a company like Apple doesn't promise a release date before they even start making the product. They would not have told millions of customers, "you can buy this product in 7 weeks" if they hadn't even started producing it yet.

Not sure how accurate this rumor is but they have gave us release date knowing they are woefully short of meeting orders so the end result is about the same.

 

[bunnicula]

So many launch day streaks are gonna end this year

I know, right? I have NEVER not gotten an iPhone on launch day except for the 3GS and I didn't try to buy it on launch day because I wasn't sure if I wanted it or not since it looked like the 3G. I got the first iPhone on launch day and every one after it, ergo, I have a streak going for years. I even got the damned 5s and I had to go STAND IN LINE for that baby.

If I miss this one, I will be bummed. I upgrade yearly, so my streak is serious. LOL.
[doublepost=1505954243][/doublepost]

Didnt it take half a year to get the white iphone 4 to market?

Yes. It did. I bought the black one on launch day and bought the white later.

 

[OneMike]

If you want the X and feel you can't get it due to delays. Just curious why you are willing to settle as opposed to wait or just get neither since you can't get what you want.

 

[joeblow7777]

Sure, but they did the same thing with the AirPods and look at how a disaster it was. People just started receiving theirs recently

The next generation iPhone is just a tad bit more important to Apple's continued success than their first attempt at wireless earbuds.

 

[Delgibbons]

Do you reckon I could try buying one and flogging it on eBay for a bit more? Is that a sure fire moneymaker?

 

[bchery21]

Bad news. Unless I stumble upon one in-store by chance, I'll be waiting forever to get my hands on the iPhone X.

 

[bunnicula]

The next generation iPhone is just a tad bit more important to Apple's continued success than their first attempt at wireless earbuds.

And, to be fair, they never gave an exact date for those until they knew they could deliver them.