Ming-Chi Kuo Says iPhone X Unlikely to Reach Supply-Demand Balance Until Next Year

[hortod1]

production will catch up just in time for the tennis

Uh, make that Xs

 

[brianvictor7]

It doesn’t seem like the iPhone 8 stood a chance against the X. Most people rent/lease their phones under their carriers so the $1000 price point definitely won’t deter anyone from getting the better option.

It detered me big time. But even as rabid an Apple fan as I am, I have held on to my 5S for almost 4 years. I simply couldn't justify buying another phone sooner (just got the 8+). What can I say, but that Apple makes great products!

 

[obiwan]

How do people feel about the difference in terms of price?

I can't see the price because it's obscured by the notch.

 

[xeio]

when it takes until next year to get an iphone x, we all can wait for iphone x series 2 next year, rofl

 

[pat500000]

Tired of this now ... FaceID looks flaky, I don't like that TouchID has gone completely, it's going to be a fist fight to get one, I still have to book a store appointment to get one (UK upgrade program) and last but not least the thing is £1000.

Just picked up a mint S8 for £495 and a 64Gb u3 SD card for £23 giving me the 128Gb config that I'd like for 1/2 the cost of the X. I've tried Android before and not liked it, but that was a long time ago and given the above it HAS to be worth a punt

New hidden feature: when the recorded image of yourself (face ID) tells the real you ,"You're flakey as well."

 

[Michaelgtrusa]

As long as no one dies making them, it will sell out in seconds.

 

[CWallace]

Years into the making, and Timmy still couldn't secure a successful launch. I wouldn't expect anything less from the guy who was brought in to Apple by SJ for his expertise in operations.

The iPhone has always been supply-constrained at launch since the first one a decade ago. Popularity is a double-edged sword.

The iPhone X was delayed because they can't make enough of them fast enough.

Stop talking sense.

The thing is why announce iphone x if the stock isn't ready?

Standard practice for Apple and the industry as a whole.

I can def see a mid-cycle gold release. If anybody knows how to milk a prrawduck its Tim Cook.

I would honestly not be surprised if Gold becomes an option when the iPhone X launches in China.

I'm not convinced the iPhone X will be such a huge success as previous phones. I mean, what does it offer over the 8? Face Recognition - that's about it. Is that worth another $300?

Animoji will probably be a strong driver of iPhone X adoption.

And yes, I am being serious. I wish I wasn't, though.

What (could Apple) have done to make the launch, as you characterize it, successful? Genuinely curious.

Start making them now and announce it in September 2018.

Apple products never used to be about specs. They used to care about user experience.

The great thing about iPhone is you get a great experience and great specs.

 

[rGiskard]

The last two times I upgraded,(6,7) I got up at 3am and placed a pre-order. Everyone claimed stock would be so scarce that that would be the only way to acquire one. This was especially the case for my matte black 7+256 last year, as numerous sources, including apple claimed there would not be ANY plus stock in store on launch day.

On both launches I ordered two phones(me and the wife) in the middle of the night. On both occasions, despite order times just minutes after 3am, shipping dates were two weeks or more(SIX last year) after launch day.

On both occasions, monitoring MacRumors and iStockNow, I was able to secure my phone by going setting an in-store reservation and getting the phones there, canceling the preorders. This became even more of a problem last year, as one of the pre-orders moved to "shipped", despite never leaving china for another few weeks, and you can't cancel once they go to "shipped" status.

So this year, I'm skipping that mess and will just monitor store stock and walk in when available. Your mileage may vary.

When did you set up the in-store reservation? Launch day?

 

[Karma*Police]

I have a feeling this one's going to be craaazy difficult to get. I just hope I can nab one before the end of the year.

 

[rjjacobson]

I dunno, I don't buy this one. Something tells me those who want one will get it.

I hope you are right, I am on the upgrade program with apple and hoping that by the month and half delay there will be enough to meet our demand on 27th. Gonna have my pre-preorder ready using the apple store app so I can hopefully snag one early but time will tell here we all are again just a year later. -- my wife rightly so says I am nuts ha ha

 

[78Bandit]

Apple is only going to know what the demand actually is once they start taking preorders. I think they are deliberately having a soft start to give them time to gather real data about who is willing to plop down $1,000 for the phone knowing the demand will still be there in a few months if they are producing too little. They will then adjust production to meet that demand since an iPhone X buyer isn't going to jump ship over something as minor as a potential three or four month wait.

The last thing Apple wants at this point is to commit to a ton of iPhone Xs just to have the initial rush peter out in a few months and have unsold inventory on their hands. If they get 50 million preorders they'll ramp up production so they can fulfill the orders by the end of February. If they only get 20 million preorders they'll keep things going slower and blame it on supply constraints in an effort to sell every one they can for $1,000. They're committed to the price point for this year. No way they do like they did with the original iPhone and cut the price if the demand doesn't materialize.

 

[Applebot1]

I don't see a $1000 device in the X. Let that sink in ... there isn't much more the phone can do than the 8 in terms of cost. Crazy more I think about it.

 

[brianvictor7]

The thing is why announce iphone x if the stock isn't ready?

A couple of reasons that I can see.

1) they needed "One More Thing" to ingaurgate the Steve Jobs Theater.
2) they are stoking the fires with anticipation like with the Apple Watch
3) They don't want to cannibalize the iPhone 8 sales too much.
4) they probably wanted to ship sooner, but cannot make the things fast enough so they are giving themselves more time to build up initial supply.

 

[now i see it]

This story sounds fishy. There isn't such a thing as cannibalizing an iPhone. Apple fans are going to get one iPhone or another and Apple will make a sale. If the profit margin is higher on the X, why would Apple want customers to give up with impatience and purchase an 8 instead?

 

[rjjacobson]

At least it seems they've made the process easier for people who are already a part of the Apple iPhone Upgrade program. You can even get pre-approved for the new loan and choose your color and model before the phone is available for pre-order, so that way, when orders open, it's a few less steps to do.

Yes I like the process and since I did that with my 7Plus 256GB gonna do this program for the second year, I like the preapproval setup won't have to do much when ordering actually opens I hope

 

[jonnysods]

No surprises there, and the lack of supply is going to make people crazy with wanting one!

 

[brianvictor7]

I don't see a $1000 device in the X. Let that sink in ... there isn't much more the phone can do than the 8 in terms of cost. Crazy more I think about it.

While I ageee with you (I bought the 8+ this morning), I understand their marketing rationale. I felt their new MacBook pros with touch bar were ridiculously priced, and yet they sold. A year later and the price is dropping. This is Apple's pattern and it works for them: overprice the really cool new feature for early adopters then drop some for the people who don't feel the emotional need to buy immediately.

 

[obiwan]

The great thing about iPhone is you get a great experience and great specs.

What, in the same way that sitting behind a tall person in the cinema and watching a film with part of the screen obscured by their head is a great experience?

 

[DConroy]

When did you set up the in-store reservation? Launch day?

A few days after. But only because I had a moment where I was like "well I placed the order, let it play out." But when shipping estimates did not improve, I got impatient. iStockNow had been showing stock come and go since the launch. So even Apple wasn't entirely right about "none available at launch". I may not have gotten the phones on launch day, but it wasn't six weeks later either as it would have been if I'd waited on the pre-order.

 

[rjjacobson]

I'm not convinced the iPhone X will be such a huge success as previous phones. I mean, what does it offer over the 8? Face Recognition - that's about it. Is that worth another $300?

Mostly true. But it has some extras in the camera area that swayed me from the 8 Plus. The fact that both cameras do image stabilization, the ability to do low light with noise reduction and some other feature I forget ;-). An then the things I can do with the front camera also interest me. I have probably dozen or two apps that I like which would work on any recent iPhone but the cameras always end up being the factor for what I do with my phone each time ;-). No different this year LOL

 

[Zairon]

I'll be in NY between December 24th and January the 8th....Will I have any chances of getting one ?

 

[Prabas]

I hope this doesn't come off as trollish, it's just a question, but does MacRumors have some sort of connection/relationship with Ming-Chi Kuo/KGI?

He has a stellar reputation of predicting upcoming iPhones, etc. If he says so, you should believe him.

 

[alan7467]

I'm so set on getting an iPhone X at launch that I actually practiced placing preorders this morning so that I could be really fast at it next month. Yeah, I'm a loser, but I'm a loser with a system and have never missed a preorder launch day window for the iPhone. The only thing I haven't figured out yet is white or black? I'm thinking white will have lower preorders, which could increase my odds, and it's kind of a unique look with the black front, white back, and chrome band which harkens back to the original iPhone. This is the first time that I could go either way, because honestly I prefer the black front and everything else is secondary.

I pretty much did the same thing first thing this morning. Haha!

One thing I’m not very clear on, and I’m having a difficult time telling in pictures: is the band on the space grey model the same color as the white model?? I can see that it’s super glossy (polished), but can’t tell if it’s darker. I’d personally prefer a darker band, but also really like the look of the white back. I also agree that the demand for the white model may be lower thus increasing ones chances of securing one for launch day.

Edit: just watched some more hands on videos. Space grey band is definitely darker than the white model.

 

[PizzaBoxStyle]

I'm not convinced the iPhone X will be such a huge success as previous phones. I mean, what does it offer over the 8? Face Recognition - that's about it. Is that worth another $300?

In many ways, the X seems like a step back.

Have you seen this at all?

https://mobile.twitter.com/thomasfuchs/status/907764896829452288

 

[Born Again]

do you guys believe the iphone X will sell better than the iphone 7?

also what comes after iphone x?
[doublepost=1505496186][/doublepost]

I pretty much did the same thing first thing this morning. Haha!

One thing I’m not very clear on, and I’m having a difficult time telling in pictures: is the band on the space grey model the same color as the white model?? I can see that it’s super glossy (polished), but can’t tell if it’s darker. I’d personally prefer a darker band, but also really like the look of the white back. I also agree that the demand for the white model may be lower thus increasing ones chances of securing one for launch day.

you guys need help.. or maybe a just a girlfriend. /s